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Kentucky Derby Day Picks

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  1. TheMiltMan TheMiltMan is offline

    Vancouver
    Canada

    Posts: 121
    Joined: Jul 07

    May 7th, 2011 (5/7/2011 4:38pm)

    Haven't seen the usual Tread picks...Thought I might offer the following:

    My picks to win are 1, 2, 8, 13, 16, 17, 19
    Place picks: 1, 2, 8, 13, 14, 16, 17, 19

    General truisms (IMO):
    1. Wide open race
    2. Off the pace style has done well in the days leading up to the derby
    3. Exactas/Tri's/Supers are rewarded w/10fold increase in expected payout. Ave exacta maybe 1200 in derby lately, average tri maybe 12000, and average super maybe 140000. So that might guide your risk/reward approach.

    General hopes for a successful day for me:
    1. Poly/Turf form wont be the handicap in this race that it has historically been
    2. Need to lead horses must not win.

    Tuborg longshot of the day: Brilliant Speed.

    Busy w/derby day activities so cant offer the in depth analysis, but good luck to all.
     1
  2. blufhard blufhard is offline

    Temple, GA
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    May 7th, 2011 (5/7/2011 4:41pm) in reply to TheMiltMan

    Is there a free online feed of the race? Not sure if I am going to make it home in time for post.
  3. TheMiltMan TheMiltMan is offline

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    May 7th, 2011 (5/7/2011 4:47pm) in reply to blufhard

    Guessing most links will be buffering hard come derby time.

    1 Additional though I forgot. Rather than pick the top horses, I found it better to eliminate horses. If you can get the field down to 10-13 horses that you think can hit the board exotics become much more managable.
     1
    Thread Starter
  4. kellykip kellykip is offline The Chosen One

    New York City, NY
    United States

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    May 7th, 2011 (5/7/2011 5:00pm) in reply to TheMiltMan

    I can't find a goddamn DRF in Manhattan - newsstands used to carry it on every corner when I used to handicap regularly a couple of years ago. I guess at $6.50 a pop now, they can't absorb the cost of stolen copies.

    Edit: must be because of NYC OTB getting shut down
    Edited By: kellykip May 7th, 2011 at 05:02 PM
  5. the_schmenx the_schmenx is offline

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    May 7th, 2011 (5/7/2011 7:39pm) in reply to kellykip

     
    Originally Posted by kellykip View Post

    I can't find a goddamn DRF in Manhattan - newsstands used to carry it on every corner when I used to handicap regularly a couple of years ago. I guess at $6.50 a pop now, they can't absorb the cost of stolen copies.

    Edit: must be because of NYC OTB getting shut down

    You can at least get the race for free.........

    http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/kyderby.pdf
  6. kellykip kellykip is offline The Chosen One

    New York City, NY
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    May 7th, 2011 (5/7/2011 8:07pm) in reply to the_schmenx

     
    Originally Posted by the_schmenx View Post

    You can at least get the race for free.........

    http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/kyderby.pdf

    Yeah I picked up the free PP's for the Derby off of drf.com. I just like handicapping with the paper better.

    Ended up betting #6 to win (looking to steal on the lead), and bet 1/11/15 over 6, 1/11/15 over 8, and boxed 1/11/15.

    Way out of practice, so not expecting too much, and kept the total under $100.
  7. SpankyHamm SpankyHamm is offline

    Altamonte Springs, FL
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    May 7th, 2011 (5/7/2011 8:14pm) in reply to kellykip

    $10 WPS 16
    $1 Ex 1, 16, 19 / 1, 2, 8, 14, 16, 17, 19
    $1 Tri 1, 14, 16, 17, 19 / 8 / 1, 14, 16, 17, 19
    $0.10 Super Box: 1, 2, 8, 14, 16
    $0.10 Super Box: 8, 13, 14, 17, 19

    $92 in action
     
  8. kellykip kellykip is offline The Chosen One

    New York City, NY
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    May 7th, 2011 (5/7/2011 8:17pm) in reply to SpankyHamm

    ^^ This does not bode well for me.

    other than the 1/8 exa
    Edited By: kellykip May 7th, 2011 at 08:18 PM
  9. djoshaz djoshaz is offline not an Irish DJ

    Folsom, CA
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    May 7th, 2011 (5/7/2011 9:35pm) in reply to Niceguy

    i have #12 Sativa.....oh wait, Santiva.
  10. Moonlight Graham Moonlight Graham is offline

    PA
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    May 7th, 2011 (5/7/2011 9:37pm) in reply to djoshaz

    i have the 5 horse
  11. Beldar C Beldar C is offline

    New Haven, CT
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    May 7th, 2011 (5/7/2011 9:43pm) in reply to Moonlight Graham

    17- Soldat to win, exacta box with the 8 also
     
  12. sponge1430 sponge1430 is offline

    Bethesda, MD
    United States

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    May 7th, 2011 (5/7/2011 10:01pm) in reply to Beldar C

    6 7 13

    win place and show
    exacta box
    tri box
  13. wantagolf wantagolf is online now Moderator

    CA
    United States

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    May 7th, 2011 (5/7/2011 11:19pm) in reply to sponge1430

    My picks.

    Trifecta Box #214112612
    Racebook Exotic
    May-07 CHU R11 2.00 USD TRX 1,8,15
    Risk US$ 12.00

    Trifecta Box #214129340
    Racebook Exotic
    May-07 CHU R11 2.00 USD TRX 7,8,13
    Risk US$ 12.00

    Trifecta Box #214112085
    Racebook Exotic
    May-07 CHU R11 2.00 USD TRX 3,8,13
    Risk US$ 12.00

    Show #214107853
    Racebook Straight
    May-07 CHU R11 7.00 USD SHW 5,6,9,10,11
    Risk US$ 35.00
    Edited By: wantagolf May 7th, 2011 at 11:26 PM
     
  14. the_schmenx the_schmenx is offline

    Burgh
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    May 7th, 2011 (5/7/2011 11:28pm) in reply to wantagolf

    Santiva is a great value, beaten fav in Bluegrass with legit excuse going off at 35-1, with a win over the track.

    I like Mucho, Midnight and Pants

    Would throw Arch in on the bottom of a few bets
  15. dolphin13 dolphin13 is offline OT Vice MVP

    Chicago, IL
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    May 7th, 2011 (5/7/2011 11:35pm) in reply to the_schmenx

    what a shame. couldn't hear a fucking word that was said
  16. curiousgeorge curiousgeorge is offline baby duck hat

    Las Vegas, NV
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    May 7th, 2011 (5/7/2011 11:39pm) in reply to dolphin13

    me either
  17. heavyj80 heavyj80 is offline

    West Babylon, NY
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    May 7th, 2011 (5/7/2011 11:39pm) in reply to curiousgeorge

    only had 2 $ to win on him lolllll fml
  18. dolphin13 dolphin13 is offline OT Vice MVP

    Chicago, IL
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    May 7th, 2011 (5/7/2011 11:40pm) in reply to heavyj80

    we get it, everything you do is a fail
  19. playwithfire05 playwithfire05 is offline

    Indianapolis, IN
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    May 7th, 2011 (5/7/2011 11:42pm) in reply to SpankyHamm

     
    Originally Posted by SpankyHamm View Post

    $10 WPS 16
    $1 Ex 1, 16, 19 / 1, 2, 8, 14, 16, 17, 19
    $1 Tri 1, 14, 16, 17, 19 / 8 / 1, 14, 16, 17, 19
    $0.10 Super Box: 1, 2, 8, 14, 16
    $0.10 Super Box: 8, 13, 14, 17, 19

    $92 in action

    bink!!
  20. SpankyHamm SpankyHamm is offline

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    May 7th, 2011 (5/7/2011 11:46pm) in reply to playwithfire05

    see above...


    Also had $1 DD for another $196.
    Edited By: SpankyHamm May 7th, 2011 at 11:50 PM
     
  21. curiousgeorge curiousgeorge is offline baby duck hat

    Las Vegas, NV
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    May 7th, 2011 (5/7/2011 11:47pm) in reply to SpankyHamm

    how much u win spanky?
  22. dolphin13 dolphin13 is offline OT Vice MVP

    Chicago, IL
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    May 7th, 2011 (5/7/2011 11:50pm) in reply to curiousgeorge

    bout tree fiddy (plus a lot more)
  23. SpankyHamm SpankyHamm is offline

    Altamonte Springs, FL
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    May 7th, 2011 (5/7/2011 11:53pm) in reply to dolphin13

    About $750. And at the same time I was booting a chip stack on Bodog (came into FT as chip leader - ended up 6th - first would have been another $924, finished 6th for $154).

    Still - a good afternoon.
     
  24. dolphin13 dolphin13 is offline OT Vice MVP

    Chicago, IL
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    May 7th, 2011 (5/7/2011 11:54pm) in reply to SpankyHamm

    well my ticket didn't cash so redistribute some of your winnings over here bitch
  25. BigEarn7 BigEarn7 is offline 2010 Plattsburgh Award Winner

    Chicago, IL
    United States

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    May 8th, 2011 (5/8/2011 3:10am) in reply to dolphin13

    Ended up tossing $19 (lol, that was left on my voucher after all my other derby bets) on Animal Kingdom. Got back $410 and ended up $160 or so for the day. First time I have hit a derby winner in ages!

    Edited By: BigEarn7 May 8th, 2011 at 03:12 AM
  26. TheMiltMan TheMiltMan is offline

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    May 8th, 2011 (5/8/2011 3:24am) in reply to BigEarn7

    Exacta, Tri, and Super :) Good derby day in this corner. Hope u'all had a good day as well.
     1
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  27. BigEarn7 BigEarn7 is offline 2010 Plattsburgh Award Winner

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    May 8th, 2011 (5/8/2011 3:32am) in reply to TheMiltMan

     
    Originally Posted by TheMiltMan View Post

    Exacta, Tri, and Super :) Good derby day in this corner. Hope u'all had a good day as well.

    wow sick hit, what $ values on the bets? $2 tri and super?
  28. TheMiltMan TheMiltMan is offline

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    May 8th, 2011 (5/8/2011 3:43am) in reply to BigEarn7

    nah...aint that baller...got a little cash flow problem w/a couple poker sites currently ;). Bet the tri at $1 and the super at the $1 min.
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  29. BigEarn7 BigEarn7 is offline 2010 Plattsburgh Award Winner

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    May 8th, 2011 (5/8/2011 3:47am) in reply to TheMiltMan

    You still profited over like 8k, ya? Tri was 2k for $1... didn't see what super was...
  30. runninbad runninbad is offline

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    May 8th, 2011 (5/8/2011 4:38am) in reply to TheMiltMan

     
    Originally Posted by TheMiltMan View Post

    nah...aint that baller...got a little cash flow problem w/a couple poker sites currently ;). Bet the tri at $1 and the super at the $1 min.


    $1 Super pays $24,063. GG cash flow problem.
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