TEN@HOU: Another spot where invoking game theory would only make people angry. Tennessee is clearly the worst team that Houston could make its playoff debut against next week: they're awful, and Houston has bashed their skulls in once (before everyone got hurt) already this season. I know it's another one of those if this team wins and this team loses and one of these teams wins and one of these team loses, it's Tennessee type scenarios, but it does seem mathematically fairly likely (can't see the Ravens losing, Jets game could go either way, no AFC West team is a clear favorite over any other), but I think you'd certainly rather face the Titans than the Bengals or certainly the Jets (who, while reeling, have shown they can win in the playoffs with Sanchize). That said, I'm not sure the current Texans team is good enough to decide whether or not they want to beat certain teams... the important thing is that Andre Johnson gets through his play count healthy and ready for next week. It's too bad this team got so completely ravaged by the injury bug that the playoff run isn't going to happen, but I think Tennessee sneaks by this week as one point favorites and gets to stay in town to play next week too, where Houston wins.

TB@ATL: Eff you, Bucs. I defended you clowns until I was the last person alive still defending you, and you still roll over and quit every week... it's too bad, because I like Raheem Morris and figure he's going to be fired and replaced by someone worse after this disaster of a season. Josh took a huge step back this year and it will be interesting to see what the Bucs do with him as well... I certainly can't imagine them suddenly showing up for the first time in 3 months against a team which traditionally bashes on awful teams. Even though the line has moved from 13.5 to 10.5, I don't see the Falcons having any difficulty covering. It's what they do. They're going to get bashed when they have to play a real team in the playoffs because that's also what they do (Can't believe this is a chance to have consecutive 10-win seasons for the first time ever and it's also their first time with back-to-back playoff births, that's a bad franchise for you). Then again, it's a divisional game and the Bucs have been in every game in the Georgia Dome in the past few years, so... dammit Zander, stop. Bucs lose by like 30. The jerks.

BAL@CIN: This one's huge. So huge that the Bengals still had to sell 2-for-1 tickets this week to sell out a game that means everything to both teams. Line has gone from Bal -3 to Bal -1, possibly reflecting how bad they've been on the road, but I really can't see them losing a big pressure late season game vs a rookie QB and a team has shown absolutely nothing in crunch time over the years. They need this one to get a week off and at least one home game during the playoffs (and assuming Pitt can beat NE again, it's pretty huge to have the HFA for the AFC Championship too), where they don't lose. I think the veteran superstar defense and a heavy dose of Vonta Leach and Ray Rice is more than enough to eek this one out, and the Bengals have a big sweat coming over whether or not they back into the playoffs... if they do, I think they might have enough to sneak past the Texans next week, but that remains to be seen. Either way, they got themselves a solid QB and a stud WR this year and are looking good for the future, but I don't see them winning this game.

Regardless of outcome, I put this gif from last week in because we all need to smile a bit more at the coolest play of 2011.



PIT@CLE: I have no clue. Pitt is favored by a TD, and in a vacuum they crush Cleveland. This isn't a vacuum though. I assume they try to go out and build a 21 point lead at halftime so Charlie Batch can play and get Ben a little rest for the playoffs, but there's all kinds of TV watching at work here. I like this whole schedule all divisional games at the same time in the last week thing, because it means most teams have to play instead of resting or knowing going into the game what they have to do or who they can rest. If the Steelers win, they have a chance at having next week off, but I think the Ravens are going to win too because they play to the level of their competition and the Bengals are good. Therefore they'd want to rest this week, especially since it looks like a really easy road Wild Card game in either Denver or Oakland. Even if they do rest Ben, they're probably still good enough to beat Cleveland. Again, I expect the Steelers to win, but I wouldn't be happy betting on this game and if I had to I'd take the Cleveland points because you never know how early the starters are getting pulled. If this sounds incoherent on paper, you should have heard it in my head.

KC@DEN: Kyle Orton gets to come in and devastate Denver's playoff dreams. What a great script for a terrible movie. It's too bad San Diego didn't win last week to make today truly interesting... Last time these teams played, Tebow completed 2 passes. And won. These teams hate each other almost as much as I hate people who try to give all the credit for their hard work, blood, sweat, and tears to some mystical magical being that may or may not exist rather than to themselves and the people who helped them get to where they are. Denver's favored by 3, and all they have to do is win and get themselves into the playoffs. Pretty sure that was the case last week too, where they made Buffalo look like contenders and not like a team coming off a 7-game losing streak after a $59 million mistake. Still not convinced Tebow is an NFL quarterback, but I said earlier this season that I think Kyle Orton is good enough to be one of the 32 starters in this league and I think he proves it today. Chiefs win by a TD, Tebow starts to question why God has let him down two weeks in a row, and it is good. Plus, as Bill Simmons said this week, how could you not want Romeo Crennel coaching in the NFL again instead of being an OC like he should be? Comedy is great...

SD@OAK: The good thing about this Chargers' season, the only good thing really, is that next year all this talent might actually have a real head coach. Norv is a cancer as a head coach and I have no idea how his magical mystery ride lasted this long. Despite still competing with Josh Freeman and Rex Grossman (gulp) for the interceptions title, Phillip Rivers was still named to the Pro Bowl, purely by reputation. I still think he's a great QB and absolutely laugh at people who think they'd rather have Eli, but this season honestly they should have just given Tebow the ticket even though he'll never make it again. Raiders are 3 point favorites at home, suggesting Vegas thinks these teams are even at a neutral site. I think the Chargers are a vastly more talented team, and even though the time is ripe for them to quit, I think one last eff you at their rivals is in order as they fight back to 8-8 with a somewhat comfortable victory that makes the playoff picture even murkier. Raiders need only 4 penalties to set the NFL season record, and I think they get there in the first half on their way to an embarrassing fail from 7-4.

SEA@ARI: One of these teams is going to finish 8-8. Who saw that coming two months ago? Marshawn Lynch not getting a Pro Bowl selection is a travesty, and I think he steamrolls as Seattle continues their recent domination of Arizona with another season sweep. Arizona by 3? Take the points...

DAL@NYG: Last year I had the privilege of being in attendance at the Week 17 Sunday Night playoff elimination game, and I remember very little of it because we still started tailgating at noon. Something something Charlie Whitehurst something. This one should be pretty amazing since it's two of the biggest franchises and fan bases in sports trying to back into the playoffs, and it's Tony Romo in a meaningful prime time game. How can you beat that? The Giants were always frauds, exploding out of the gate against the easiest schedule in football, but they've really backed it up now that they've had to play vs real teams. The Cowboys went on their run, but it was much too easy to call the Arizona debacle (I believe I wrote something like "they haven't done anything stupid in 4 weeks, so they're due"). Time to go out on a limb. The line has gone from Giants -1 to -3 and the public is all over the G-men. These teams are both 2-3 in the division, and I just don't understand it. On paper the Cowboys just seem better to me, and the Giants have a history of December collapses (didn't see that 4th quarter comeback a few weeks ago as I was in rural Myanmar, but it was quite surprising even though Eli has turned into a good QB, albeit one I don't think should be in the Pro Bowl over Cam or Romo for that matter). I don't think winning vs the Jets counts for much (they're a mirage) and I don't think losing to Philly counts for much (best team in the division, knocked themselves out of playoffs), and if Romo's hand turns out to be OK I think you take the points and the Cowboys win this one and get revenge vs the Lions next week too.

It's been a fun year, thoughts?

Usually one hour before kickoff there's a million people talking about football. Is everyone still drunk? You should be...

1 pt ppr

Pick two

Celek vs Was
R Brown vs Was
C Ivory vs Car

 

Originally Posted by zander

It might only be Simpson's second coolest play of the season...

laughing out loud. Fucking owned.

 

Originally Posted by Pker4Dummies

1 pt ppr

Pick two

Celek vs Was
R Brown vs Was
C Ivory vs Car

Good OP - coulda used a little Denarius Moore tho

wheeeeeee countdown time!

I'm thinking your deep abiding faith in the Sucs, er, Bucs could be rewarded today. The Falcons philosophy of grinding out the clock with 1.5 yards per rush with Michael Turner up the middle every first down play and then trying to make something happen on 3rd-and-8 every series will keep the Bucs in the game. On a brighter note, the Falcons soft zone and no pass rush could resurrect Josh Freeman's career.

The Falcons traditionally fail miserably at putting the other team away after they get a lead, the Jags game notwithstanding. I look for the Falcons to come out flat after their standard beat-down on national tv against the Saints. Bucs will be pleasantly surprised to find this game can be won and will probably go into Save-Raheem's-Job mode and pull off the unlikely upset, say 20-17.

wappp wapp wahhhhhhhh

gg packers

^ not that it really matters, since the Packers aren't starting Rodgers and the Lions have the early lead with the 5th seed to play for. The Falcons should start preparing for round 3 vs. the Saints imo.

 

Originally Posted by Unforseen

just realized im gay for brees

go bengals!

and Bills... how absurd would it be if the Steelers somehow get the 1 seed?

 

Originally Posted by Superleggera

and Bills... how absurd would it be if the Steelers somehow get the 1 seed?

About as absurd as getting a safety on a kickoff. Just wow...

dont the texans know that if they lose then they might get to play the titans in the first round?

wtf are they doing?

 

Originally Posted by zander

About as absurd as getting a safety on a kickoff. Just wow...

seriously... I didn't know that was possible. And how about Kellen Clemens with the 2nd rushing TD allowed by the 49ers D? This is looking like it'll be a fun day.

 

Originally Posted by DBo Fo Sho

Is anyone going to be willing to host/hold for the playoff confidence pool?

This day is very strange so far

Yates left with an injury. Jake Delhomme now in for Houston. It's really hard not to feel bad for the Texans. Finally make the playoffs but they just cannot catch a break.