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OT bookies and golf experts - golf prop bet help!!

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  1. mathclub mathclub is offline

    New Zealand

    Posts: 7,010
    Joined: Jan 07

    May 22nd, 2009 (5/22/2009 7:23am)

    since there's so many golf ballas in OT, what do you think the odds are on this prop bet?

    I am 31 now with a handicap of 13, the bet is whether or not I can become a scratch golfer by the time I am 40.

    i have never really played golf seriously, just the odd hit now and then but the last 2 summers i have had memberships, had 1 coaching lesson which helped me get a couple of rounds in the 70's and get my handicap down to 13. I don't really practice at a range, don't really warm up just go and play. If i did like 1 hours practice a week and a half hour warmup before every round then I think I could get into single digit handicap with current technique.

    The thing is I have always been very good at sports, esp. those that require good hand/eye co-ordination and I am very good mentally. like top 0.1% or better I guess. I have absolutely no doubt that I am capable of getting to that level, the bet is more about whether I will put the time in as it would take a lot of work from where I am now. need to totally change swing etc. the way my lifestyle is now I have lots of free time to put into it, but that may change over time obv.

    so without polluting it with our discussions on numbers, what sort of odds do you think I should be getting (obv i am big underdog) for this bet?? I am putting down $500 usd.
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  2. marinersheep marinersheep is offline This is stupid.

    Seattle, WA
    United States

    Posts: 15,092
    Joined: Feb 06

    May 22nd, 2009 (5/22/2009 7:30am) in reply to mathclub

    I think making a 9-year prop bet is kinda ridiculous. For you to put in the time and effort to really care enough to become scratch, putting down $500, I'd say you need at least 50:1 odds.

    You can get to scratch if you care enough to do it.
     
  3. mathclub mathclub is offline

    New Zealand

    Posts: 7,010
    Joined: Jan 07

    May 22nd, 2009 (5/22/2009 7:35am) in reply to marinersheep

    we're gonna link it to the big mac index btw, so the time value of money doesn't really come into it. so if I don't make it i will end up actually paying $800 or whatever $500 would be worth in 9 years time.

    guess i'm looking for some guidance as how long it might take. like if i played 15 hours a week for 3 years, including regular coaching, how low would i get??

    out of guys who play that much golf, what is their average handicap??

    also, nz handicap system is you just hand in cards from any round you play and handicap is like top 10 scores from your last 20 rounds. diff system than uk for sure and dunno about us, but easier to become scratch handicap here than other countries i've heard
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  4. poker4jab poker4jab is offline

    San Francisco, CA
    United States

    Posts: 820
    Joined: Mar 06

    May 22nd, 2009 (5/22/2009 7:45am) in reply to mathclub

    I'd say 100-1. I've been about a 6 handicap for the last 7ish years and once you reach about that point, it's very hard to really truly improve. The main question is commitment. Depends on how much you like golf considering the amount of time you'd have to play. Given that you're 31 and haven't played all that much, I'd say you won't like golf enough to get to scratch level. I bet you could do it if you put in the time and effort, but it would be a lot of time and effort to give, so it would really have to be worth it. GL though
  5. mathclub mathclub is offline

    New Zealand

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    May 22nd, 2009 (5/22/2009 8:00am) in reply to poker4jab

    the reason i have never really played golf much is because I was always into other sports so much and played them to a good level when i was younger. i have always enjoyed golf, but just never was a priority compared to other sports. now i'm over the other sports and want a new challenge in my life.
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  6. mathclub mathclub is offline

    New Zealand

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    Joined: Jan 07

    May 22nd, 2009 (5/22/2009 8:01am) in reply to poker4jab

     
    Originally Posted by poker4jab View Post

    I'd say 100-1. I've been about a 6 handicap for the last 7ish years and once you reach about that point, it's very hard to really truly improve. The main question is commitment. Depends on how much you like golf considering the amount of time you'd have to play. Given that you're 31 and haven't played all that much, I'd say you won't like golf enough to get to scratch level. I bet you could do it if you put in the time and effort, but it would be a lot of time and effort to give, so it would really have to be worth it. GL though

    how good are you at sports in general and how long did it take you to get that low?
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  7. mkm44 mkm44 is offline

    Montreal
    Canada

    Posts: 3,071
    Joined: Nov 08

    May 22nd, 2009 (5/22/2009 8:52am) in reply to mathclub

     
    Originally Posted by mathclub View Post

    since there's so many golf ballas in OT, what do you think the odds are on this prop bet?

    I am 31 now with a handicap of 13, the bet is whether or not I can become a scratch golfer by the time I am 40.

    i have never really played golf seriously, just the odd hit now and then but the last 2 summers i have had memberships, had 1 coaching lesson which helped me get a couple of rounds in the 70's and get my handicap down to 13. I don't really practice at a range, don't really warm up just go and play. If i did like 1 hours practice a week and a half hour warmup before every round then I think I could get into single digit handicap with current technique.

    The thing is I have always been very good at sports, esp. those that require good hand/eye co-ordination and I am very good mentally. like top 0.1% or better I guess. I have absolutely no doubt that I am capable of getting to that level, the bet is more about whether I will put the time in as it would take a lot of work from where I am now. need to totally change swing etc. the way my lifestyle is now I have lots of free time to put into it, but that may change over time obv.

    so without polluting it with our discussions on numbers, what sort of odds do you think I should be getting (obv i am big underdog) for this bet?? I am putting down $500 usd.

    If you have free time...you should be able to get to a 0 in 9 years.

    If you can play 3 rounds a week minimum and work on full swing, short game and putting for 6+ hours/week in 9 years you should be a 0.

    When you don't put in the time you will have no chance...

    This is a ridiculous bet for $500...the only odds worth your time is anything over 50:1.

    The free time you will give up, the money spent for extra rounds, lessons or memberships will trump anything else.

    I highly doubt anyone is willing to give 50:1 odds on a return of $500 and a 9 year
    bet...

    fwiw the handicap system in Canada is the same...top 10 scores from your last 20 rounds.
  8. mathclub mathclub is offline

    New Zealand

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    May 22nd, 2009 (5/22/2009 9:01am) in reply to mkm44

    just to clarify, this is not something I am only doing to win the bet, it is something that I said I was going to try and do because i love golf and wanted to do it, and my mate went - you have no chance .... smack talk etc etc now time for a bet.
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  9. leemedic leemedic is offline

    Dorchester
    United Kingdom

    Posts: 579
    Joined: Dec 07

    May 22nd, 2009 (5/22/2009 9:08am) in reply to mathclub

    Mathclub what about an incentive prop bet with your friend. Every 6 months try bring down your handicap by 1 point for 100$. See how you go over 2-3 years. Play 5 games get ur medium handicap and see if you improved by one point if you fail then you owe him 100 and vice versa..
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