Originally Posted by BigEarn7

I like that bet, the bears are overrated, they got sooo lucky last year again and again. People do always seem to get screwed when they bet the under though on their over/under season wins.

I don't think the bears will be able to stop Falcons aerial attack this weekend and it isn't good that Barber is out.

Plus, Hester shouldntt be as effective now and shouldnt be able to dig cutler out of all his mistakes like before.

Maybe the best opener in the history of the NFL last night has to get you excited for this weekend. A pretty interesting slate of games with the shortening of training camp and a lot of teams looking different than years past. Here's who I like :

Pittsburgh (+1.5) at Baltimore

Pittsburgh looks like they will be at full health after some untimely injuries hurt them in the Super Bowl. Maurkice Pouncey is back, a fantastic lineman. Troy Polamulu appears healthy, his injury in the Super Bowl was evident. The Steelers re-signed Ike Taylor, a nice cover corner, to go with the Linebacker studs of James Harrison, LaMarr Woodley and Lawrence Timmons. The offense looks more explosive with wild card WRs Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown looking to give the Steelers more options to go along with the usual array of Mike Wallace, Hines Ward and Heath Miller. This is a team with no major losses, and another year of progress from a team that has proven it's one of the best in the league.

Baltimore will have some question marks. Derrick Mason and Todd Heap, two staples for the past few years, were let go as part of the new salary cap changes. I've never been a big Joe Flacco fan, and those losses can't help much. The Baltimore D, as much love as it gets in the press/public opinion, is actually mediocre and overrated. Ray Rice is a stud, and Ricky Williams is a nice addition, but Pittsburgh is a tough team to run on. In this first game of the year, I think Pittsburgh comes out and puts up a decent amount of points in a rare display of offense between these two teams as they rarely play early in the year with great weather.

Tampa Bay (-1.5) vs. Detroit

Detroit clobbered New England at home in a preseason game. Due to lack of action and news early this preseason, you would think they won the Super Bowl. Let's all calm down a minute. The Lions are the #1 overrated team this season due to everyone claiming they are underrated. Sure, they should be improved, but they have a long ways to go to make the playoffs.

Everyone loves Ndamukong Suh for good reason, but he's only one player. The truth is that Detroit has had an awful pass defense for the past few years, and that shouldn't change much. Tampa Bay is a pretty even offensive team, LaGarrette Blount is an explosive talent in the backfield and Mike Williams is a physical talent playmaker on offense. Josh Freeman is a fine young QB who should be able to throw the ball in the Tampa heat.

Detroit has a nice offense also, we all know about Calvin Johnson, and Nate Burleson had a fantastic preseason. Jahvid Best is a hell of a talent in the Darren Sproles/Reggie Bush mold. I'm not so sure how well Detroit can run the ball for tough yards however.

Tampa should have a significant home field advantage in this one, being more accustomed to the Florida heat. I think this line should be the standard -3, but the hype surrounding Detroit has driven it down. As we saw last night, defenses look to be behind offenses early in the season without the normal amount of practice time. Give the edge to the home team.

Houston (-9) vs. Indianapolis

A not-so-secret among people who know the NFL : The Colts aren't very good, even with Manning. I think Manning is the greatest QB to ever play the game (in the regular season at least) not only because of his numbers and ability, but because of the way he coaches on the field and basically runs the offense. It's amazing how much Indy relies on him, more and more each year. I'm making this bet for the main reason that the Colts have the potential to be downright awful without Peyton.

Let's look at the facts : 1) The Colts let Adrian Foster run rampant in a historical rushing attack in last year's opener. Foster's status is unknown, but the Texans are going to score some points at least. 2) Kerry Collins was bad last year, and there's not a magical potion for 38 year old QBs to get better. 3) The Colts have had a lot of trouble running the ball recently WITH Manning. Without him? Can't be easier. 4) The Texans are the odds on favorite to win the division, and can make a big statement Sunday by blowing out Indy. 5) The Texans defense should be slightly improved.

I'm fading the Colts until they show me otherwise. I think this line should be double digits, and -9 is a good gamble.

Cleveland (-6.5) vs. Cincinnati

Rookie QB on the road. Rookie QB who wasn't exactly Peyton Manning coming out of college. A team without many explosive weapons. A highly touted rookie WR who is still a rookie WR, one who will receive a lot of attention.

It's hard to like Cincy's offense. I think they have a fine defense, but barring any special teams or a few turnovers, I don't see Cleveland losing this one. Colt McCoy is serviceable, a "game manager" who can get his weapons the ball. There's no reason Peyton Hillis shouldn't be the back he was last year. Cleveland has an excellent offensive line with Joe Thomas leading the way. They also impressed me on defense in the preseason in the game vs. Philly. I think this line should absolutely be an even -7, as Cleveland showed a lot of improvement last season, while Cincy seems to be an organization in transition. Kind of like the Colts without Manning, I will be betting against Cincy early until Andy Dalton shows me otherwise.

1st two picks are awful. Right or wrong, those are horrible games to concentrate on.

 

Originally Posted by TheSilentBob

1st two picks are awful. Right or wrong, those are horrible games to concentrate on.

I actually agree. I think those first 2 games are HUGE coinflips. I love your cleveland pick and I think Texans will roll.

goodluck.

 

Originally Posted by SyphonSoul

love how people are predicting all these big things for the texans. the team has never won shit, never been to the playoffs and have a knack for throwing away games on offense and defense in the 4th. wouldnt surprise me if the Colts veteran been there leadership steals the game.

I know the Texans have the potential to be beasts, but Ive gotta see it first

Echoing off of this

Colts best player is out and is being replaced by Kerry fucking Collins with about 2 practices under his belt.....what other big names are on the roster?

Texans are the hype of the AFC South and they have the leading rusher in the NFL (although he is questionable), shouldn't this line be more than 9?

I smell a trap....or a backdoor cover

Also, Lee Corso just picked Notre Dame. I think we need to get on this!

tcu -1

like another teaser lol, im screwed this week

6pt: pitt +7.5, SD -2.5

 

Originally Posted by AMARTIN1181

ummmm...if he gets them right they are not awful lol

Call a shove with 27 and it wins, thats not awful?

in before "<==== PD tht way"

 

Originally Posted by BigEarn7

I took Air Force +1.5 in the pool but I almost wished I didn't touch this game. If this isn't a trap line for TCU backers I don't know what is... but can TCU really start 0-2.?

I still think Air Force covers and wins straight up but wow this line confused me . Public money is 100% going to be heavy heavy on TCU.

Covers has TCU as the 3rd most bet team this week behind Stanford (#1) and Houston (2)

The thing w/ Air Force is that they run that strange ass triple option that is very tough to prep for so they stun a lot of teams, especially teams who have only prepped for one week b/c they're coming off of a big game.

How are the Steelers getting points against the Ravens? After they get beat pretty bad in that game all of you guys high on the ravens are going to be running away.

I wouldn't go anywhere near the Lions. They tend to play to the level of their opponents so they will never make you comfortable since they will never win a game by more than a touchdown.

 

Originally Posted by Niceguy

tcu -1

can get tcu+1 now, at least at the hilton

I like N Illinois -5.5

 

Originally Posted by SerlinSteak19

How are the Steelers getting points against the Ravens? After they get beat pretty bad in that game all of you guys high on the ravens are going to be running away.

I wouldn't go anywhere near the Lions. They tend to play to the level of their opponents so they will never make you comfortable since they will never win a game by more than a touchdown.

we get it, your down on the ravens this year

 

Originally Posted by TheWacoKidd

for real?

by using the public data and then gauging how the books react... for example, if 90% of the bets come in on the Patriots at -7 and the line closes at Patriots -4, you can bet I'm taking the other side.

Meaning that you take the opponent +4? BTW thanks for posting that site, been interested in learning more and becoming more disciplined in my bets.

AHHHHHHHHHH i get it now, 90% should drive line up, but goes off as if action was bet other way. That is where that site you use comes in handy. Sorry brain working slow today.

 

Originally Posted by DaVols

I also want to point out that probably close to 95% of the people betting that game can't name the Texans QB off of the top of their head, 50% of those people will say David Carr

Oh cmon... more then 5% of those people play fantasy football.

 

Originally Posted by AMARTIN1181

i like sf - 5.5 as well

Betting on Alex smith is like betting on alex smith.