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sports betting pleasers (reverse teasers)

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  1. DynaCrazy DynaCrazy is offline

    Chilliwack
    Canada

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    Dec 10th, 2005 (12/10/2005 10:20pm)

    this is when u give away pts such as 6 , 7 etc. Checked my 5dimes.com that if u give away 6pts and pick 3 teams and win them all, u get 17/1 on your bet. This sounds real real good. I mean let's look at this week schedule

    Colts -9
    jags

    pats -4
    bills

    dolphins
    chargers -14

    assume i take colts, pats, chargers, whihc means it would be -15, -10, -20, whihc require me to win by at least 16,11 and 20 respectively i get 17/1 to my money.

    Assume i bet 5 pleasers

    Colts, pats, chagers
    colts, pats, dolphins
    jags, bills, chargers
    colts, bills , chargers
    jags, billls, dolphins

    let say i bet 10 dollar each and i hit 1 of these pleasers correct, i win 170 and lose 44 whihc is a profit of 126?? The chart at 5dimes really gets me confused. i know i m explaining this wrong. Anyone can help ? I mean placing 5 pleasers and hitting 1 of them... arent u going to lose money anyway? any sports bettign expert can explain this to me. thx.
  2. Skywalker18 Skywalker18 is offline

    Philadelphia, PA
    United States

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    Dec 10th, 2005 (12/10/2005 10:31pm) in reply to DynaCrazy

    I don't understand you're question. From what I gather you asked "if you played 5 pleasers and hitting one wouldn't you still lose money" but you seem to have answered that question right before you asked it.
  3. DynaCrazy DynaCrazy is offline

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    Dec 10th, 2005 (12/10/2005 11:46pm) in reply to Skywalker18

    like if i bet on 5 pleasers, each 10 dollars. 5dimes shows the payout for the pleasers betting. If i hit 1 of them, i make 170 MINUS the 4 pleasers i have to lose whihc is 44 equals +126 profit. I am betting on a pleaser in 5 different ways. Different combinattions. Do you understand whhat i m ttrying to say here?
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  4. GambleAB GambleAB is offline 1. I'm awesome

    Las Vegas, NV
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    Dec 11th, 2005 (12/11/2005 12:41am) in reply to DynaCrazy

    What in the hell is your question?
     
  5. Skywalker18 Skywalker18 is offline

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    Dec 11th, 2005 (12/11/2005 2:52am) in reply to DynaCrazy

    I think that I understand, but I think you're answering your own question.

    Either that or you are just making a statement and don't need the question marks. You're math is correct, though. If you bet on 5 and won one you would be up $126.

    If you are asking if there is a way to guarantee a win by putting in all 12 combinations of games then the answer is no. You're giving the house a 12 point middle on three games and they only have to hit one.

    FWIW, I like two team pleasers as long as you get 6/1 and not 5/1.
  6. DynaCrazy DynaCrazy is offline

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    Dec 11th, 2005 (12/11/2005 10:23am) in reply to Skywalker18

    oh yea i get your pt with the 12 point middle. you can bet all the different combinations and still lose if a team wins in that range u dont'want that to win by. Are pleasers the biggest sucker bets out there besides teh 10+ team parlay?
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  7. Skywalker18 Skywalker18 is offline

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    Dec 11th, 2005 (12/11/2005 3:49pm) in reply to DynaCrazy

    I've never really done any serious math looking at pleasers, but I would guess that they aren't great, but not horrible either. The reason I would say they aren't horrible is because many sites don't offer them. If they were that great for the books every site would have them and promote the ass off them. One of the reasons most places don't try to sell the 2-3 team parlay is because they make less vig off them than a regular straight bet (especially the 3 teamer, much less vig).

    I like 2 team pleasers, but the opportunities to find a good one are few and far between. I generally only take underdogs that I don't feel I need the points with, like KC today.

    As far as huge parlays, if you take any teams on the money line, you are getting the true odds on the play. So that is never a sucker bet when you are getting the true odds. You can take 10 teams with the spread at -110 and take one moneyline at -500 and you'll get the true odds, not the doctored 80/1 or whatever they usually offer.
  8. DynaCrazy DynaCrazy is offline

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    Dec 11th, 2005 (12/11/2005 7:24pm) in reply to Skywalker18

    i betted straights and moneylines today.

    kc moneyline
    chicago moneyline
    houston moneyline
    giants -9.5
    colts -9
    oakland -1.5 bought 1 point

    i am betting like the public.. saw the betting trends on sportsbook.com by the way and end up losing all 6 games. What bets do you see here that are good bets in my part out of my 6 here SKY?
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  9. daddypoe daddypoe is offline

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    Dec 11th, 2005 (12/11/2005 7:41pm) in reply to DynaCrazy

    The biggest problem is that you went with the betting trends. The only ML play that made some sense was KC. -9.5 for the Giants was quite a bit, you got back doored on the Colts game, and the Oakland/Jets game was a very ugly game. At this point in the season you have to take a look at what teams need to win and what teams need a draft pick. Houston is the worst team in football, maybe GB, so that is pretty tough to bet on them. GL next week though.
  10. Skywalker18 Skywalker18 is offline

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    Dec 11th, 2005 (12/11/2005 9:40pm) in reply to DynaCrazy

    well, I'm not gonna sit here and rip ya apart because of a tough day. There were certainly enough reasons to go with all the games that you played. I re-evauluate each play win or lose based on the game, so just because I took an L on a game like Kansas City doesn't mean that I was on the wrong side (not all wins are good plays either). I take the same factors into account before the game as I do when looking back at it, so that way I know whether my 'system' continues to work or not. For the sake of this thread, I'll take a look at the KC game, which I already said I lost.

    Before the game I felt that whichever team could win the following categories (taking account the offenses and defenses) would win the game: rush yards, yards per pass, rush avg. and first downs. Those are the main ones, the 'intangible' stats (not less important but less telling and more varying from week to week) stats that I use are red zone efficiency, turnovers, sacks, return average, and penalties. Those numbers are weighted differently and each stat varies from week to week based on the strengths and weaknesses of the other team. So the best running defense would get less 'points' (not really points per say) when they play the worst running offense.

    So, KC ran for 28-161-5.8ypc to Dallas' 28-129-4.6ypc, and passed for 9.8/pass attempt (not completion) to Dallas' 8.3/pass attempt. KC also gained 25 first downs to Dallas' 21. So KC won my most important stats, and that alone made them a good play for me. Those stats tie together, so most teams that win and cover from week to week are better in those categories. Good rushing average leads to first downs which lets you run for more yards and makes the defense 1) get tired and 2)commit more players to the run which opens up the passes that you will hit for a higher percentage and get a better average per attempt.

    This is the guts of my picks. I get to the 'which team will do better in these categories' by taking account the entire season with a slightly heavier emphasis on the past four weeks (only 2 in college). Ideally, I would look at Team A and say, 'okay, they have allowed teams to gain 130% of their year to date weekly average running the ball and their opp., Team B is gaining 150% of their year to date opponent's weekly average (making them a great runnin team). If I can find a mismatch like that, I'm on the game. That method allows for not penalizing a team for gaining tough yards against a great defense that doesn't allow a lot of yards. It also allows for a team that lets up 17ppg to get credit for holding team B(30ppg) to 20 points, or only allowing their opponent to score 67% of their average.

    This post is getting long so I'm gonna stop now after a quick summary. Any other questions feel free to ask.

    To summarize, think of it like the BCS. There is the human (read: biased)polls such as newspaper/TV and the actual spread itself and your own opinion, the unbiased computers (the stats I mentioned above) and the intangibles that you can't quite put a concrete value on (like how many points is being at home worth in the actual game, NOT the spread... or how badly does Team A need to win the game--how many points is that worth?). If evidence shows that the home team should win statistically, has the intangibles in their favor (i.e needs to win the game), and their recent performance shows improvement then you have a bet. One of the keys is not letting any one third of those evaluations weigh too heavily. This is especially true for the human part, because a large majority of people and TV/print not only unknowingly are giving poor advice, but downright destructive advice.
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