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Sports Betting Question

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  1. toerazor toerazor is offline

    Incline Village, NV
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    Jan 20th, 2012 (1/20/2012 3:21am)

    I have a futures bet on the Giants winning the Superbowl at 50 to 1. I have $200 on it to win 10k. I havent hedged at all so far. How much would you guys hedge on this weeks game? The 49ers are -130.

    I am thinking about putting $1300 to win 1K this week. Then if the Ravens win that is obviously better for me. How much would I put on the Pats in the SB if they win? They will be around -170 I am guessing. Thanks alot.
    Edited By: toerazor Jan 20th, 2012 at 03:23 AM
  2. skeeze666 skeeze666 is offline

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    Jan 20th, 2012 (1/20/2012 3:24am) in reply to toerazor

    Don't hedge.

    Cry when they lost to Pats by 27.
  3. jcohen jcohen is offline

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    Jan 20th, 2012 (1/20/2012 3:27am) in reply to skeeze666

    If you are confident Patriots will win this week, then I'd just bet Patriots to win the SB now. It'd be much better odds than if you wait until they beat the ravens.

    Or maybe just make a bet that the AFC will win, if you can do that.
  4. runninbad runninbad is offline

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    Jan 20th, 2012 (1/20/2012 4:07am) in reply to jcohen

    don't hedge and you should have bet $198 ($10,000 cash transaction IRS paperwork bullshit).
  5. Smokin Zags Smokin Zags is online now 2010 CA Amateur Golf Champion

    Lake Forest, CA
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    Jan 20th, 2012 (1/20/2012 4:47am) in reply to runninbad

    when did you get them at 50/1?
     
  6. toerazor toerazor is offline

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    Jan 20th, 2012 (1/20/2012 5:06am) in reply to Smokin Zags

    In week 15 when they were behind Dallas in the NFC East.
    Thread Starter
  7. boneman27 boneman27 is offline

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    Jan 20th, 2012 (1/20/2012 2:16pm) in reply to runninbad

     
    Originally Posted by runninbad View Post

    don't hedge and you should have bet $198 ($10,000 cash transaction IRS paperwork bullshit).

    This....gambling noob. If you're a serious sports better, never, ever hedge. Gambol it up and let it ride!
     
  8. Da Donkey Da Donkey is offline

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    Jan 20th, 2012 (1/20/2012 2:22pm) in reply to boneman27

    I would not risk that much. I really like the Giants chances to beat the 49ers. Therefore, I would just put like 500 bucks on 49ers moneyline.
  9. B_O_K_E B_O_K_E is offline

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    Jan 20th, 2012 (1/20/2012 2:24pm) in reply to Da Donkey

    Hedging it now seems really bad.

    Giants beat 9ers and yur now -1500 total going into the bowl. Seems like you are min'ng winnings and max'n your losses. Seems bad. Sweat another week out and than hedge if u must.

    Add in taxes on a giants win and a loss with pats ML, your 10k winning ticket is now worth 3k tops.
    Edited By: B_O_K_E Jan 20th, 2012 at 02:35 PM
     
  10. Sandman_Good Sandman_Good is offline

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    Jan 20th, 2012 (1/20/2012 2:30pm) in reply to B_O_K_E

     
    Originally Posted by B_O_K_E View Post

    Hedging it now seems really bad.


    I ask..because im a noob when it comes to this stuff..but why is hedging a bad idea...

    aren't you trying to guarantee you win something?
  11. DBo Fo Sho DBo Fo Sho is offline Taking advantage of Official Threads

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    Jan 20th, 2012 (1/20/2012 2:45pm) in reply to jcohen

     
    Originally Posted by jcohen View Post

    If you are confident Patriots will win this week, then I'd just bet Patriots to win the SB now. It'd be much better odds than if you wait until they beat the ravens.

    Or maybe just make a bet that the AFC will win, if you can do that.

    I like this idea. Bet the Pats to win the SB now, and then play it by ear after this weekend. You took the longshot odds for a reason, don't deprive yourself of a huge payout by having to hedge 2 weeks in a row (and yik there's a week layoff).
  12. B_O_K_E B_O_K_E is offline

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    Jan 20th, 2012 (1/20/2012 2:48pm) in reply to DBo Fo Sho

    Hedge bets eat into profits. Sure it guarantees a "win" but in almost all cases the 2nd hedge bet is bad percentage wise. I geuss if he is in a bad state financially in life than hedge away.

    Hedgers gonna hedge regardless tho, theyll never understand, like OP, I can tell you right now he is hedging no matter what.


    Here is a good read on why its bad:
    Gamblers try this sort of thing all the time – there’s a constant search for a “sure thing” – ways to be so that you always win. It may seem like a good idea, but hedge bets are nearly always a bad move. Hedging your bets may seem like it’s saving you on losses but really it is just eating into your profits. Think of it like this – you should only be making good percentage bets. If you have to bets countering each other, each going against the other, then one of them is almost always going to be a bad percentage bet that you shouldn’t take. If your initial bet was good, and it likely to make you money, then your hedge bet is bad and you should not make it. If you bet on the Tigers to win, the only thing that should make you then bet on Geelong is if Geelong is a better bet. Giving a bad percentage bet the name of “hedge bet” does not make it a good bet.

    There is but one exception. If you are betting big money – and we are talking life changing amounts of money you are laying out on a bet. Firstly, give some serious consideration to whether you actually want to be doing that, and if maybe instead you shouldn’t be contacting a gambling helpline. But maybe you are good, together, not problems, you just want to make the bet of a life changing sum. Using a hedge bet to insure some of that money for you is worth considering and probably worth doing. As far as exceptions go, that is pretty much it for the hedge bets. If it’s life altering-ly huge sums, hedge your bets. If not, go for the good bet and leave the others alone.
    Edited By: B_O_K_E Jan 20th, 2012 at 02:58 PM
     
  13. Tracy_Ham Tracy_Ham is offline

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    Jan 20th, 2012 (1/20/2012 3:54pm) in reply to B_O_K_E

    There is no real way to hedge this bet.
    I would hope $200 isn't life changing $$.
    Let it ride and re-evaluate after this weekend.
  14. Popperhead Popperhead is offline

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    Jan 20th, 2012 (1/20/2012 3:58pm) in reply to Tracy_Ham

     
    Originally Posted by Tracy_Ham View Post

    Let it ride and re-evaluate after this weekend.

    This
  15. EyeKnows EyeKnows is offline

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    Jan 20th, 2012 (1/20/2012 4:06pm) in reply to B_O_K_E

     
    Originally Posted by B_O_K_E View Post

    Hedge bets eat into profits. Sure it guarantees a "win" but in almost all cases the 2nd hedge bet is bad percentage wise. I geuss if he is in a bad state financially in life than hedge away.

    Hedgers gonna hedge regardless tho, theyll never understand, like OP, I can tell you right now he is hedging no matter what.


    Here is a good read on why its bad:
    Gamblers try this sort of thing all the time – there’s a constant search for a “sure thing” – ways to be so that you always win. It may seem like a good idea, but hedge bets are nearly always a bad move. Hedging your bets may seem like it’s saving you on losses but really it is just eating into your profits. Think of it like this – you should only be making good percentage bets. If you have to bets countering each other, each going against the other, then one of them is almost always going to be a bad percentage bet that you shouldn’t take. If your initial bet was good, and it likely to make you money, then your hedge bet is bad and you should not make it. If you bet on the Tigers to win, the only thing that should make you then bet on Geelong is if Geelong is a better bet. Giving a bad percentage bet the name of “hedge bet” does not make it a good bet.

    There is but one exception. If you are betting big money – and we are talking life changing amounts of money you are laying out on a bet. Firstly, give some serious consideration to whether you actually want to be doing that, and if maybe instead you shouldn’t be contacting a gambling helpline. But maybe you are good, together, not problems, you just want to make the bet of a life changing sum. Using a hedge bet to insure some of that money for you is worth considering and probably worth doing. As far as exceptions go, that is pretty much it for the hedge bets. If it’s life altering-ly huge sums, hedge your bets. If not, go for the good bet and leave the others alone.

    very nice. now someone needs to explain how bad parlays are to OT although I never thought it should need explaining and is obvious.

    and then there are the guys that post about hedging a parlay DOT DOT DOT ---> infinity
  16. elusively elusively is offline

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    Jan 20th, 2012 (1/20/2012 4:39pm) in reply to EyeKnows

    I have hedged parlays probably like 5x total lifetime, but I've probably only hit 15-20, so as a % it's way too many. I've moved away from it recently since I've learned that I can leave open legs in the parlay to be placed at a later date. It was always sort of a frantic, last-minute thing where there was >$1k to be won and that isn't so much of an issue w/ the current setup.

    I would not hedge the bet in the OP this week, ever, but if I was busto I would hedge it next week for sure. $4-5k is enough for a broke person.
  17. Xmas32 Xmas32 is offline

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    Jan 20th, 2012 (1/20/2012 5:12pm) in reply to elusively

    About the only time hedging is worthwhile is when you can get a sweet middle to work with.
  18. HoldThzNutz HoldThzNutz is offline

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    Jan 20th, 2012 (1/20/2012 8:06pm) in reply to B_O_K_E

     
    Originally Posted by B_O_K_E View Post

    Hedging it now seems really bad.

    Giants beat 9ers and yur now -1500 total going into the bowl. Seems like you are min'ng winnings and max'n your losses. Seems bad. Sweat another week out and than hedge if u must.

    Add in taxes on a giants win and a loss with pats ML, your 10k winning ticket is now worth 3k tops.

    LOL what? people bet at places they have to pay taxes on winnings? i just figured everybody had a bookie and dealt with everything in cash so u dont have to worry about taxes. sports betting is already difficult to beat with the vig...now u r going to bet at a place that is going to take taxes on you? THE FUCK?
  19. Jaybone2315 Jaybone2315 is offline Professional Couch Ruiner

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    Jan 20th, 2012 (1/20/2012 9:06pm) in reply to HoldThzNutz

    Put 9k on the Niners.

    Giants gonna lose yo.
  20. EyeKnows EyeKnows is offline

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    Jan 20th, 2012 (1/20/2012 11:05pm) in reply to HoldThzNutz

     
    Originally Posted by HoldThzNutz View Post

    LOL what? people bet at places they have to pay taxes on winnings? i just figured everybody had a bookie and dealt with everything in cash so u dont have to worry about taxes. sports betting is already difficult to beat with the vig...now u r going to bet at a place that is going to take taxes on you? THE FUCK?

    you are also supposed to pay taxes on any winnings from a bookie.
  21. HoldThzNutz HoldThzNutz is offline

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    Jan 21st, 2012 (1/21/2012 12:17am) in reply to EyeKnows

     
    Originally Posted by EyeKnows View Post

    you are also supposed to pay taxes on any winnings from a bookie.

    no shit man. i am just saying if there is such an easy way around having to pay taxes on sports bet winnings you would be an idiot to not do it.
  22. B_O_K_E B_O_K_E is offline

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    Jan 21st, 2012 (1/21/2012 12:33am) in reply to HoldThzNutz

     
    Originally Posted by HoldThzNutz View Post

    no shit man. i am just saying if there is such an easy way around having to pay taxes on sports bet winnings you would be an idiot to not do it.

    OP never stated it, I just assumed.
     
  23. Jaybone2315 Jaybone2315 is offline Professional Couch Ruiner

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    Jan 21st, 2012 (1/21/2012 12:51am) in reply to B_O_K_E

    I doubt many local bookies are taking $10K futures bets.

    Although I could be wrong.
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