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Sports bettors: Hedging to hit a middle

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  1. cb04 cb04 is offline

    Emporia, KS
    United States

    Posts: 1,498
    Joined: Apr 05

    Nov 2nd, 2009 (11/2/2009 2:50pm)

    How many points do you need to try and hedge a bet to hit the middle?

    I got in on the Saints at -10.5 and now the line has moved to 12.5, does a 2 point middle give me enough +ev to hedge it? Or do I need to be waiting for 3 and 4 point middles to give it a shot.

    I am on betus so it is a -110 juice
  2. jetsjets1028 jetsjets1028 is offline

    Posts: 9,084
    Joined: Mar 08

    Nov 2nd, 2009 (11/2/2009 2:52pm) in reply to cb04

    3.5 middle was the smallest i would play but i would think 3 is OK too

    2 is not enough imo...watch the line, u might see some late saints $$ come in
  3. bettntibetn bettntibetn is offline

    San Mateo, CA
    United States

    Posts: 1,158
    Joined: May 07

    Nov 2nd, 2009 (11/2/2009 2:54pm) in reply to cb04

    you liked the saints enough to win at -10.5. take the nice spread and enjoy your $$$$.

    not +ev at all at 2.
  4. resilient resilient is offline

    Vanuatu

    Posts: 21,619
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    Nov 2nd, 2009 (11/2/2009 3:16pm) in reply to cb04

    depends on number range, e.g. a 2-point middle of 2.5 to 4.5 is more valuable than a 5-point middle from -2.5 to +2.5.

    I think 10.5 to 12.5 is pretty meh... you are getting 20:1 that the final score is 11 or 12, which is probably ok... but you also have to factor in that you are probably giving up the better side of the action, given that the line is moving so aggressively. In this case, you have a powerful offense that is covering every week, with a strong leader, and going against the worst possible counter - a star cornerback out for the game (and the year).

    I would stay with your bet.
     
  5. runninbad runninbad is offline

    Winnemucca, NV
    United States

    Posts: 589
    Joined: Oct 09

    Nov 2nd, 2009 (11/2/2009 3:24pm) in reply to cb04

    In the NFL, the number of points needed to middle is not as important as which numbers are "live". For example, I'd middle a game laying 2 1/2 and getting 4 all day every day because of the live 3. But I wouldn't lay 4 and take 5 1/2 because the live 5 is horrid. Same spread but the odds of the game falling 5 makes it unprofitable.

    You have a live 11 (good) and 12 (not so good). I'd probably try to middle that if I had no opinion on the game. If you layed the 10 1/2 thinking the line was going to move up and you would get a middle, then yes, buy it back. However, if you bet it because you thought the Saints would cover, then let it ride.

    Another thing you could do is this: Buy half of it back. Then if the line moves to 13 or higher, you can buy the other half.
  6. Popperhead Popperhead is offline

    Toronto
    Canada

    Posts: 13,085
    Joined: Jul 07

    Nov 2nd, 2009 (11/2/2009 3:33pm) in reply to runninbad

     
    Originally Posted by runninbad View Post

    In the NFL, the number of points needed to middle is not as important as which numbers are "live". For example, I'd middle a game laying 2 1/2 and getting 4 all day every day because of the live 3. But I wouldn't lay 4 and take 5 1/2 because the live 5 is horrid. Same spread but the odds of the game falling 5 makes it unprofitable.

    You have a live 11 (good) and 12 (not so good). I'd probably try to middle that if I had no opinion on the game. If you layed the 10 1/2 thinking the line was going to move up and you would get a middle, then yes, buy it back. However, if you bet it because you thought the Saints would cover, then let it ride.

    Another thing you could do is this: Buy half of it back. Then if the line moves to 13 or higher, you can buy the other half.

    possibly the most informative third post ever

    Even though i understood less than 5% of it
  7. ttplaya ttplaya is offline

    Houston, TX
    United States

    Posts: 3,158
    Joined: Nov 08

    Nov 2nd, 2009 (11/2/2009 3:37pm) in reply to runninbad

    think I found my new best friend!

    <input id="gwProxy" type="hidden"><input onclick="jsCall();" id="jsProxy" type="hidden">
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