[magic lio]

Long story short a couple weeks ago while drunk I bet a friend $300 that the Raiders would finish with a better record then the Dolphins. Do I have a chance in this or should i try and buy out?

[goofy2485 This thread sucks.]

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL






























No Jamarcus=no shot.

[resilient]

Miami's O/U for wins is 8.5, Oakland's is 6. I would guesstimate the percentages as: Miami 71%, Tie 18%, Oakland 11%. So using those numbers, Oakland's EV is $40 and I believe the buyout price should be $60.

If you went with 78%, 14% and 8%, then the buyout price would be $70.

EDIT: correction, those numbers were based on $100, multiply times 3.... buyout price for the 71% scenario would be $180, and $210 for the 78% expectation. Edited By: resilient Aug 1st, 2010 at 09:01 AM

[Howdoiplayxx]

 

Originally Posted by resilient

Miami's O/U for wins is 8.5, Oakland's is 6. I would guesstimate the percentages as: Miami 71%, Tie 18%, Oakland 11%. So using those numbers, Oakland's EV is $40 and I believe the buyout price should be $60.

lol @ the guy taking $60 as a buy out price for this bet....the buy out price is about $295 imo

[resilient]

 

Originally Posted by Howdoiplayxx

lol @ the guy taking $60 as a buy out price for this bet....the buy out price is about $295 imo

whooops sorry, I didn't see it was $300... multiply all of my numbers by 3.

so the price for the first scenario is $180, and the buyout price for the second is $210.

[Howdoiplayxx]

pretty sure raiders get 4 wins if they are lucky...you should just take your 300 that u r gna lose, and bet on the under total for raiders...or just go outback and light the 300 on fire since thats wat ur basically doing

[resilient]

 

Originally Posted by Howdoiplayxx

pretty sure raiders get 4 wins if they are lucky...you should just take your 300 that u r gna lose, and bet on the under total for raiders...or just go outback and light the 300 on fire since thats wat ur basically doing

then you should take your roll and bet UNDER 6 wins for the Raiders on Bodog... and you can do that only laying 105 to 100, Over lays -125

[Howdoiplayxx]

i have a few nfl futures already in and this is one of them actually-- ty tho

[deej_0607]

 

Originally Posted by magic lio

Long story short a couple weeks ago while drunk I bet a friend $300 that the Raiders would finish with a better record then the Dolphins. Do I have a chance in this or should i try out?

Ya u should definitely try out. Prolly increase your odds by at least 50%. Could mb even get a fair buyout price then.

[GPop21]

 

Originally Posted by magic lio

Long story short a couple weeks ago while drunk I gave a friend $300 because the Raiders suck

fyp

[SJCX]

I'm def not trying to say the Raiders will finish with a better record but they could be better than a lot of people think. Their horrid QB play was the main reason they sucked so badly. If they can get average QB play they'll be a whole lot better.

[goofy2485 This thread sucks.]

And who exactly is going to give them avg qb play???

[Leet8s usausausausausa]

I actually like Jason Campbell a lot and think he got a bad rap in Washington. I think the weaker AFC West division can give the Raiders a shot over the tough AFC East. In addition, the AFC East is going to play the AFC North and NFC North which are really good divisions while the AFC East faces the NFC West. I wouldn't buy out of this bet @ 180.

[SJCX]

Whatever you think of Campbell is about 10 times better than what they had last year in Russell

[Howdoiplayxx]

 

Originally Posted by Leet8s

I actually like Jason Campbell a lot and think he got a bad rap in Washington. I think the weaker AFC West division can give the Raiders a shot over the tough AFC East. In addition, the AFC East is going to play the AFC North and NFC North which are really good divisions while the AFC East faces the NFC West. I wouldn't buy out of this bet @ 180.

if ud like u can bet 180/300 with me, same bet? ill let u put down 180 to win 300

[resilient]

 

Originally Posted by Howdoiplayxx

if ud like u can bet 180/300 with me, same bet? ill let u put down 180 to win 300

that's not the same thing as buying out for 180... the odds implied by the buyout are 480:180, or 2.67:1

[Leet8s usausausausausa]

Yea I wouldn't take that bet HDIP but there is a difference when there is a made bet and a buyout is offered and just making a straight bet. Would be interested though if you would give me better odds.

[blufhard]

Totally unrelated to this thread, but a girl I went to high school with made the Raiderettes cheerleading squad this summer. Thought that was pretty cool. And... buy out imo.