lol.

I dumped TVIX a while ago. Took a few decent losses on it when I was trying to time the market around the new year, but I have been rolling up with AAPL/XIV/F/and party poker... Needless to say over the past 2 weeks my portfolio is up about 15-18%.

XIV is basically the opposite of TXIV but not as leveraged, markeckert told me about it, has been pumping huge lately.

 

Originally Posted by rebelfd

Sax did you load up with RIM on marketocracy, we're crushing you. I'm impressed with Unforseens results I might have to make him my investment advisor.

I invest in large cap ADRs with high dividend yields, ideally not european focused. some european large caps are find as long as their revenue stream are not european focused (aka, shell, bp, total, repsol...you get the idea)

you get a div yield better than sov't, with the upside of stock appreciation.

You'll be late for the party but there's still a party; this is how my porfolio in marketocracy is structured since november. My real portfolio, because i'm poor, is in a north america equity growth portfolio and a global equity portfolio.

equity is the way to go these days. If you need fixed income, investment grade corp mid-term and certain sovt's where the credit risk is not priced properly (aka Brazil)


cheers

Edit: I suck/don't have the time to do the day trading cdmagee and others do, and many of the things I do everyday is ensuring that well diversified portfolios are sheltered from macroeconomic shocks.

Europe back to its shenanigans

 

Originally Posted by dixiecrat88

With the TVIX trading at about 14.25 wouldnt it be a good play to buy some shares (at least for a hedge) at this level because at some point it is going to significantly rise again. It isnt like an equity ETF or stock where the company or series of companies actually has to sell a product or service and actually have earnings or something. Will the time decay on this actually make this ETF go much lower if the market goes sideways for a little bit? I am not necessarily saying that it is going to hit 50 next week or something, but assuming that volatility will creep back in the market at some point, like it always does, wouldnt it be smart to buy some here? In the end, I am not exactly sure of the time decay calculations, so if anyone knows of a formula and can post it that would be great.

Prob is you could have said that at 35, at 30, at 25 at 20,

Yes time decay will bring it lower even if the market is a little down over the next six months

it would be entirely dependent on ratio of up days v. down days, and the % of up side/down side move, and where over the course of holding the position that each move happened. If you could figure all of that specific info out - there'd be no reason to buy TVIX, you could just turn $100 into a million every few months.

yes, with options, because the value of the contract is based on time and implied volatility. It's actual time decay.

TVIX, and any other leveraged ETF's, decay because of the original value and it's past performance. If TVIX was at $100, and goes up 2% one day, it's at $102. When it goes down 2% the next day, it's at $99.80. What happens over the course of time isn't based on interest, volatility, and actual time in the markets, it's based on the performance of the ETF itself. It's not based on the VIX going from point A to point B - it's the PATH that it takes from point A to point B. The VIX can be at 20 now, and 20 again in 30 days, but without knowing the performance of the market on a daily basis - TVIX could be higher, lower, or unchanged.

My comment about making millions of dollars is based on how you would need to know the market's performance every day to figure out how much the decay would be. If you know the performance of the market every day for the next 6 months, you probably won't have too much trouble retiring when you want.

I think we are finnnnnnally at the top of our happy hype rally. Or at least the last 1%. About fucking time imo. % down is better on faz lol.

 

Originally Posted by BigEarn7

TVIX will hit big when it hits. The problem is trying to time when that will be...

why don't you dollar cost average it if you think its going to hit big?

DCA, basically you buy the same equity over time to reach an average cost. Tvix at~14, you buy 100 shares today. In 2 weeks it goes down to ~12. So you've lost 2$ per share, but you still believe tvix will spike, so you buy another 100 shares at 12. Your average cost is 13, so @ 12, you are down only 1 dollar. Then it goes down to 11, but you still with all your heart believe it will spike, you have 100 shares @ 14, 100 shares @ 12, and your avg. cost is 13. You want to make your avg cost $12, so you'd buy enough shares @ 11 to make the avg cost of 13 to go closer to 12.

It's pretty meh overall, but some find it useful.

Don't like that XIV is down despite sp being up. TVIX up and market down a bit. This started to happen in reverse right before TVIX tanked.

Might make the XIV to TVIX switch...

 

Originally Posted by Niceguy

DCA, basically you buy the same equity over time to reach an average cost. Tvix at~14, you buy 100 shares today. In 2 weeks it goes down to ~12. So you've lost 2$ per share, but you still believe tvix will spike, so you buy another 100 shares at 12. Your average cost is 13, so @ 12, you are down only 1 dollar. Then it goes down to 11, but you still with all your heart believe it will spike, you have 100 shares @ 14, 100 shares @ 12, and your avg. cost is 13. You want to make your avg cost $12, so you'd buy enough shares @ 11 to make the avg cost of 13 to go closer to 12.

It's pretty meh overall, but some find it useful.

This is done in practice with big equity purchases (in our case, 2mm plus)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...ng-of-ipo.html

another casino stock...up 60% since open. CZR

I was in PPP for a while - gave back all profits when it came out with the report that it was re-evaluating their resources to the down side. Couple of other things to be mindful of - they are hedged to sell a lot of their silver production below current market value (i think to SLW) - due to Mexico taxation laws, they are taxed on market value even tho they sell below market value.

could be a good value at $2.85 but could also be a trap depending on their resource estimate review.

 

Originally Posted by TheWacoKidd

LVS up from 43 and change to almost 52 from this post. party still trading at 2.70 after I recommended it at 1.80... jus sayin

oh and I've been out of TVIX for a long time, but it's getting tempting again...

Hop back in ...XIV Is cashed out. When the market was up the other day it didn't even move When this started happening with TVIX (market going down but TVIX not moving) it was time to flip.

TVIX should start heading up.

 

Originally Posted by dolphin13

Mitt Romney heard about Apples stock price and he just called me for a loan.

lol - pretty sick run.

been reading about all the major telcos getting raped on earnings because they have so heavily subsidized the cost of Iphones to get people to sign up for data plans etc.

No prob. With all the good picks I've made on here, you'd think I'd have a lot more OT friends than I do. Lol.