Originally Posted by saxman

been reading some of the stories on this and it sounds like they're actually forcing them to fail - what sovereign nation accepts all those demands on pension cuts and minimum wage cuts, and so forth? Best thing for their gov't to do is walk away from the Euro, stick all the debt holders with no payment plan at all, and start over. If they give in to all the demands, there will be general riots and blood in the streets.

No i do not agree with their political and economic history.

this has massive implications for the markets. DO NOT wish this.

I thought this problem was already solved about four times?

Oopsies.

 

Originally Posted by cdmalgee

It's supposedly resolved now, but if they didn't, and there was no actual default, you would never trigger credit default swaps. You wanna talk about ramifications - if you can't insure fixed income, the cost of risk has to go somewhere and lending costs go up for every sovereign nation on the planet.

What do you mean by never trigger cds?

 

Originally Posted by phish42O

What do you mean by never trigger cds?

The isssue is whether a structured default would trigger the CDS. What could happen is that they have a structured default or a haircut, therefore hurting bond holders. Many of those bond holders also hold CDS as insurance. If the bondholders don't get paid on their CDS because it isnt a "traditional default" the price of borrowing is going to go up because people wont be able to insure themselves. At least there would be little point to having a CDS if it is going to get paid.

well done - wish i had got in on it.

 

Originally Posted by dixiecrat88

The isssue is whether a structured default would trigger the CDS. What could happen is that they have a structured default or a haircut, therefore hurting bond holders. Many of those bond holders also hold CDS as insurance. If the bondholders don't get paid on their CDS because it isnt a "traditional default" the price of borrowing is going to go up because people wont be able to insure themselves. At least there would be little point to having a CDS if it is going to get paid.

So my next question is this:

Wouldn't the corporation/ insurer say its not a default cause shit can't get �ber fucked up again and lay the risk and fucking on the bond holders?

And who determines whether it's a default?

Agency? Court?

I imagine the pressure is on and people are getting blackmailed and/or mercked? Yes? No?

Thanks for the answer. Appreciate more answers to these questions.

 

Originally Posted by phish42O

So my next question is this:

Wouldn't the corporation/ insurer say its not a default cause shit can't get �ber fucked up again and lay the risk and fucking on the bond holders?

And who determines whether it's a default?

Agency? Court?

I imagine the pressure is on and people are getting blackmailed and/or mercked? Yes? No?

Thanks for the answer. Appreciate more answers to these questions.

Before 08 there would never be a question on whether or not a corporation defaulted. The EU and the ECB have been determining what a Greek default will look like/whether or not it occurs.

The greek people have been getting mercked, metaphorically, because their government has been spending like they're Germany or France, even though they were on the other side of the value spectrum and the bill collector wants his money. I guess elections matter.

 

Originally Posted by cdmalgee

Before 08 there would never be a question on whether or not a corporation defaulted. The EU and the ECB have been determining what a Greek default will look like/whether or not it occurs.

The greek people have been getting mercked, metaphorically, because their government has been spending like they're Germany or France, even though they were on the other side of the value spectrum and the bill collector wants his money. I guess elections matter.

So wouldn't the ecb say no default thus bond holders get fuxored? I guess it depends on who owns the bonds, right?

If the bond holders have more clout than the insurers then the insurers get fucked?

Guess Goldman really does run the world. It was masterful. Not only did they superfuck aig, they had enough ppl in high places to steal from future generations to get paid on their carnage? Is this right?

If so, in jelly.

My understanding is some bondholders are being forced to swap their bonds and others are not. Wanna guess who the "others" are?

I thought the only bonds exempt from the haircut were the ones purchased by the ECB

 

Originally Posted by BigEarn7

Anyone else absolutely killing it with TVIX?

Got in on the day i mentioned it a few days ago at 14.70, 350 shares It just totally spiked at about 2:00 pm.

TVIX had an awesome day but that was one vicious pullback (including ah so far) and the pullback was needed due to the run up today. My question is, that is now 4 days in a row TVIX is up and Greece is fucking around right now. I'm still leary of getting in at this point but unless Greece does something drastic (in a good way), does TVIX continue its 4 day uptrend?

 

Originally Posted by BigEarn7

I'll be the first to admit that I don't know everything that goes into making TVIX rise but what I do know is that XIV is the complete opposite but follows a very similar path. When XIV was climbing up the last few weeks it didn't really matter if the market was breaking even or even down a bit, it would still go up a bit. I am hoping this is what happens with TVIX. As soon as XIV stalled out (market was up but it was down) I bailed. If you remember TVIX had the same thing happen at the tail end of its decline. The market would be down but TVIX would be down as well and it made no sense. Anyways, here is to hoping it keeps popping.

TVIX is suppose to be double of what the VXX does. What helps TVIX move is volatility. We had a lot of that due to concerns over Greece. If you play TVIX, you want bad news to come out that helps the VXX go up and when the VXX goes up, TVIX is suppose (key word there)to go up twice as fast being a 2x leveraged EFT.

This is why I would be somewhat hesitant to hold TVIX over the weekend. If Greece gets their shit together over the weekend and agree's to everything the Eurozone wants them to agree to, those gains people made on TVIX from today has a good chance of being erased come Monday.

 

Originally Posted by BigEarn7

I believe a lot of people sold off after that huge pop just to get their gains and get out and it should pop again come early next week.

[ ] Knows how tvix works