SAN DIEGO (-3) vs. New England

Call me stubborn, but I have faith in this Chargers team to turn it around and make a playoff push. They have a lot of things going for them in their favor tomorrow : 1) They are playing at home, where they are 2-0 and have outscored their opponents by a 79-23 margin, 2) They are the #1 passing team in the NFL and also are currently #1 in pass defense as well. New England strongly favors the pass when they have the ball, 3) 80% of the betting public is taking the Patriots tomorrow, which is always a good sign for the team in the minority, and 4) this fact :

Last week, The New York Times The Fifth Down blog did a great piece analyzing how potent this team is on both sides of the ball. Heading into its Week 6 game against St. Louis, the Times wrote, "The Chargers have outgained their five opponents by 1,078 yards, a path of destruction that is rare in league history. Only four N.F.L. teams have outgained their first five opponents by at least 1,000 yards."

The Chargers are a well-oiled machine on offense. Malcolm Floyd will be out, but Patrick Crayton and Buster Davis are capable backups and fantasy plays this week. Plug them into the Chargers offense and have success, as Norv Turner is a terrific play designer who always finds ways to get his receivers the ball in space and downfield. Antonio Gates is a gametime decision, but he has played with injuries before and would be a huge lift if he can go tomorrow.

In all of the Chargers losses, it has been the same problems : fumbles and special teams collapses. I would rather have these problems than have a subpar passing game, because they are factors that are more a product of luck than anything. They are volatile factors, full of variance.

New England has made a lot of plays in special teams this year, and probably will need to tomorrow to win this game. The Pats rank 29th in the league in pass defense, and they have to go on the road vs. the best pass offense in the NFL. I think a regression to the mean is in order for the 4-1 Pats.

Baltimore -13 vs. Buffalo

The line stays under two touchdowns because the Bills are coming off a bye and Baltimore is coming of a tough loss in New England. I think the disparity in talent between the teams will not make that much of a factor. Buffalo is awful (31 of 32) at passing the ball, and the league's worst at defending the run. The Ravens have the league's third best pass defense, one that will have Ed Reed back in the lineup. It's hard to see Buffalo moving the ball in this game.

Ray Rice has been hit or miss all season, but facing Buffalo at home will be about the most ideal situation for a running back. Rice is still an elite runner, but has struggled on the road vs. four quality defenses (NYJ, Cincy, Pitt, NE). He has been much better at home, averaging over 5 yards per carry and over 100 yards a game.

Pats rolll all over a whale's vagina

i'm the worst at football betting, but my favs this week are

Sea -6.5
Mia +3
Chi -3
Kc -9

Seems every1 is on Pitt and Washington, so I'm going for the switch-aroo. Yeah i got this shit down to a science obv

4 team 7 pt teaser $40 to win $113
Steelers +4
Ravens -6.5
Broncos pickem
Saints -6

6 team 7pt teaser $40 to win $160
Steelers/Dolphins over 33
Redskins +9.5
Ravens -6 and over 32.5
Titans +4
Giants +10

3 team parlay $10 to win 111.85
Redskins ML +135
Ravens -13
Titans -3

My impossible underdog ML bet $10 to win $681
Giants +155
Patriots +120
Rams +135
Redskins +135
Vikings +120

 

Originally Posted by AMARTIN1181

i'm the worst at football betting, but my favs this week are

Sea -6.5
Mia +3
Chi -3
Kc -9

Seems every1 is on Pitt and Washington, so I'm going for the switch-aroo. Yeah i got this shit down to a science obv

Can't say this last part and still go with KC -9 and Sea -6.5 since those are 2 of the most popular picks especially amongst knowledgeable bettors

My favorites:
Sea -6.5 (they cover this by at least a TD)
KC -9
Atl -3.5 (great home team, cincy sucks)

love the chargers play this week.

It's never wise to doubt the Patriots too much imo. It does seem like a trappy line but maybe the linesmakers are wanting people to think that...

I mean if they made the Patriots minus 2.5 on the road what is the difference? If the Patriots do win the game how often is it going to be by less than 3 points?

Everybody knows that the Chargers have good stats even if their record isn't good. Patriots are a better team and there is no question about it.

Not saying Pats are a lock but I wouldn't put the house on the Chargers either.

GL.

I think the line is trappy because of the records. Chargers are 2 and 4. They blew out two horrible teams and had a shootout two weeks ago with Oaktown and lost. Last week they put up 17 vs. St. Louis and lost.

If you want to value home field that much then go ahead.

I just think the linesmakers are playing the maybe think bettors will think this a trap game. I might be wrong. If I am oh well.

I will do a friendly wager if you want. 20 bux or something. I will take Pats plus 3. Lemme know.

Im putting money on giants +3 easily, dont know how they came up with that line. Giants are just a better team than the cowgirls. d-line should rape the oline and put pressure on romo, means, romo gon romo.

Bdubs has daaaa bears.

 

Originally Posted by rocket5

I think the line is trappy because of the records. Chargers are 2 and 4. They blew out two horrible teams and had a shootout two weeks ago with Oaktown and lost. Last week they put up 17 vs. St. Louis and lost.

If you want to value home field that much then go ahead.

I just think the linesmakers are playing the maybe think bettors will think this a trap game. I might be wrong. If I am oh well.

I will do a friendly wager if you want. 20 bux or something. I will take Pats plus 3. Lemme know.

Chargers do not have Floyd, Nanee and Gates is iffy at best. NE rocks SD today.

Oct 24, 2010 09:01 AM (09:04:24 AM) Writer:INETUSR Confirmation #:101024090123-1
5 tms PARLAY 50/1219
417. 49ers (San Francisco)PS -3 +110 { Pro Ftbll }
419. Rams (St.Louis)PS +3 -105 { Pro Ftbll }
403. Steelers (Pittsburgh)PS -3 Even { Pro Ftbll }
406. Falcons (Atlanta)PS -3� Even { Pro Ftbll }
414. Saints (New Orleans)PS -12 -110 { Pro Ftbll }

Oct 24, 2010 09:01 AM (09:05:09 AM) Writer:INETUSR Confirmation #:101024090123-2
STRAIGHT 55/50 403. Steelers (Pittsburgh) / Dolphins (Miami)Un 40� -110 { Pro Ftbll }

Oct 24, 2010 09:01 AM (09:09:58 AM) Writer:INETUSR Confirmation #:101024090123-3
7 tms PARLAY 100/555
416. Ravens (Baltimore)ML -650 { Pro Ftbll }
414. Saints (New Orleans)ML -700 { Pro Ftbll }
408. Chiefs (Kansas City)ML -450 { Pro Ftbll }
422. Seahawks (Seattle)ML -330 { Pro Ftbll }
426. Broncos (Denver)ML -335 { Pro Ftbll }
406. Falcons (Atlanta)ML -175 { Pro Ftbll }
403. Steelers (Pittsburgh)ML -145 { Pro Ftbll }

Oct 24, 2010 09:01 AM (09:10:45 AM) Writer:INETUSR Confirmation #:101024090123-4
STRAIGHT 100/110 423. Patriots (New England)ML +110 { Pro Ftbll }

Oct 24, 2010 09:01 AM (09:11:26 AM) Writer:INETUSR Confirmation #:101024090123-5
STRAIGHT 200/220 417. 49ers (San Francisco)PS -3 +110 { Pro Ftbll }

Oct 24, 2010 09:20 AM (09:21:47 AM) Writer:INETUSR Confirmation #:101024092034-1
3 tms PARLAY 50/253
52. Lightning (Tampa Bay)ML -160
53. Devils (New Jersey)ML -110
55. Sharks (San Jose)ML -105

Oct 24, 2010 09:20 AM (09:23:04 AM) Writer:INETUSR Confirmation #:101024092034-2
STRAIGHT 115/100
93. Grand Salami- Over / Grand Salami- UnderUn 16� -115

Oct 24, 2010 09:20 AM (09:24:20 AM) Writer:INETUSR Confirmation #:101024092034-3
4 tms PARLAY 50/671
426. Broncos (Denver)PS -7 -105 { Pro Ftbll }
417. 49ers (San Francisco)PS -2 -110 { Pro Ftbll }
414. Saints (New Orleans)PS -12 -110 { Pro Ftbll }
419. Rams (St.Louis)ML +150 { Pro Ftbll }

Oct 24, 2010 09:20 AM (09:28:46 AM) Writer:INETUSR Confirmation #:101024092034-4
STRAIGHT 100/120
409. Eagles (Philadelphia)ML +120 { Pro Ftbll }

Oct 24, 2010 09:20 AM (09:29:52 AM) Writer:INETUSR Confirmation #:101024092034-5
STRAIGHT 100/150
419. Rams (St.Louis)ML +150 { Pro Ftbll }

Oct 24, 2010 09:20 AM (09:31:10 AM) Writer:INETUSR Confirmation #:101024092034-6
STRAIGHT 110/100
431. Grand Salami NFL OV / Grand Salami NFL UNUn 587 -110 { Pro Ftbll }

Oct 24, 2010 09:20 AM (09:35:28 AM) Writer:INETUSR Confirmation #:101024092034-7
STRAIGHT 110/100
417. 49ers (San Francisco)PS -2 -110 { Pro Ftbll }

ouch :\

 

Originally Posted by TClermont

ouch :\

poor hostile.

ul man.

f my life. How could I ever think the bears would win a game