About to catch a flight and don't have much time to study these lines harder, but as of now there's only one game I really like this week :

CLEVELAND (+3) vs. Cincinnati

On the surface, the Browns look like the same old Browns ... 0-3 and in last place in AFC North. In reality, the Browns are 0-3 but could just as well be 3-0 with a total point differential of -12. In all three games (at TB, KC, at BALT) the Browns led in the second half and the total yards for all three games were pretty even.

Cincy has been pretty underwhelming in starting 2-1, playing the black-and-blue style that got them to the playoffs last year. The defense is solid, the offense is pretty disappointing. After signing TO and drafting Shipley, it looked like the Bengals passing game could be rejuvenated this season, but Carson Palmer appears to have lost his arm strength and seems slower. Ochocinco is a complentary player, still productive but not the All-Pro WR he was a couple seasons ago. Cedric Benson is a decent featured back and will be the focal point of the offense, but I think the Browns defense matches up pretty well.

The Cleveland offense seems to have really found something in Peyton Hillis. Hillis was on the rise in Denver a couple seasons ago before Josh McDaniels basically red-shirted him last year. He has found his niche in Cleveland, running with a downhill style that led to his impressive 144 yards/TD line last week in Baltimore. Give credit to newly hired GM Mike Holmgren for grabbing him in the offseason. Seneca Wallace has been decent since taking over for Delhomme, although the Browns should also pound the rock for the most part, occasionally taking a shot deep to Joshua Cribbs.

Overall, this game feels like a coin flip. The Browns played the Bengals very tough at home last year when Cincy was a much larger favorite. The Browns are improved this season and have a very good chance to get their first win of the season at home on Sunday.

Only comfortable game I see is New England at -1. They almost never lose a primetime game.

he didnt say never

but while we are at it Indy last year

 

Originally Posted by shipitthisway

last year in New Orleans on MNF?

Comparing last year's Superbowl winner to the Dolphins?

 

Originally Posted by SerlinSteak19

Comparing last year's Superbowl winner to the Dolphins?

iirc NO escaped with a miracle win @ NO against miami last year

as a cincinnati fan i dont hate ur pick but they stilll have some leaks. i think the bengals sqeak out of there w/ a win until the offense proves otherwise. ill say 23-16 bengals. i hope more but until the offense proves otherwise its just hard to say so.

 

Originally Posted by Hallettcopta

iirc NO escaped with a miracle win @ NO against miami last year

really? i was gonna correct you but it's not even worth my time.

Also leaning towards Pitt -2.5 and San Diego -8. Don't have much time for analysis, but I think that the steelers will be able to run the ball, thus hiding Charlie batch. San Diego is a very good 1-2 team, but awful on special teams. I expect them to put up 30+ points and winning easy.

 

Originally Posted by BigGunX

I'll give ya both of those lines. How much? Hell, I'll even give you Detroit -10 if ya'd like.

LOL Those are both supposed to be +.. sorry for my retardedness

Giants > Bears guaranteed, just throwing that out there

I was listening to the Simmons-Millman podcast, and he was talking about how much the sharps played on the emotion card when betting Dallas over Houston last week. If his theory is correct, then the bets that should win based on teams that really need a win this week vs. teams coming off emotional highs that may take their foot a little off the pedal are...

Browns +3, Panthers +13.5, Bills +6, Jaguars +7.5, 49ers +7, Giants -3.5

I'm going to be watching these games pretty closely to see how the theory holds this week, and I'll look again next week as well.

That said, I like the Steelers -2.5, Bengals -3, Redskins +5.5 and Seahawks -1.5.

My upset special: Redskins over Eagles

 

Originally Posted by FenwayKing

Isn't part of the emotions thing also contingent on the team being decent? For example, Dallas is a really talented team and obv "needed" the geam more; hence the sharps played them.

Like the Panthers don't even resemble a football team at this point...I'm not sure whether you can really use that argument for all cases.

Yes. I will certainly be looking closest at the Giants and 49ers, who I forgot to add in that post, but have edited to include.

Edit: Also, it's not like we're picking the Panthers to win here. They have to cover two touchdowns. So while the sharps were picking Dallas at +3, thinking they'd lose a very close game or win outright, I'm curious if the theory can hold to a bad team playing hard enough to at least cover a wide spread.

 

Originally Posted by marinersheep

I was listening to the Simmons-Millman podcast, and he was talking about how much the sharps played on the emotion card when betting Dallas over Houston last week. If his theory is correct, then the bets that should win based on teams that really need a win this week vs. teams coming off emotional highs that may take their foot a little off the pedal are...

Browns +3, Panthers +13.5, Bills +6, Jaguars +7.5, 49ers +7, Giants -3.5

I'm going to be watching these games pretty closely to see how the theory holds this week, and I'll look again next week as well.

That said, I like the Steelers -2.5, Bengals -3, Redskins +5.5 and Seahawks -1.5.

My upset special: Redskins over Eagles

Come on, do you really think that 1 or 2 weeks is anywhere near the sample needed to figure out whether that theory is correct (an entire season wouldn't even be enough)? Also, I highly doubt many sharps are putting much weight into "emotion."
I do like the Browns for this week like the op.

23-24-1 ATS so far.

 

Originally Posted by gray31

Come on, do you really think that 1 or 2 weeks is anywhere near the sample needed to figure out whether that theory is correct (an entire season wouldn't even be enough)? Also, I highly doubt many sharps are putting much weight into "emotion."
I do like the Browns for this week like the op.

So Millman is lying when he says the number of sharps he pointed to put a lot of weight into the Texans coming off two huge emotional highs combined with the Cowboys being desperate for a win?

And I would say that if over the span of even a few weeks that the theory is proving to be working out, then I'd stick with it.

 

Originally Posted by marinersheep

23-24-1 ATS so far.

So Millman is lying when he says the number of sharps he pointed to put a lot of weight into the Texans coming off two huge emotional highs combined with the Cowboys being desperate for a win?

And I would say that if over the span of even a few weeks that the theory is proving to be working out, then I'd stick with it.

I don't think Millman is lying, I do think however that if Millman knew enough to make a shitload of money sportsbetting he would actually do it rather than just writing about the world of sportsbetting. Sure maybe the the fact that Dallas' season was pretty much on the line coupled with the fact that the Texans were coming off two big wins could have been a small factor, however I would say the main reasons the sharps were on Dallas were:
1. Dallas is a very talented team that was undervalued after looking awful for 2 weeks
2. Houston was overvalued after getting 2 big wins
3. The public was all over Houston