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Worst Team to Make a Championship Appearance

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  1. Esarbe Esarbe is offline

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    Jul 14th, 2011 (7/14/2011 6:39am) in reply to AMARTIN1181

     
    Originally Posted by AMARTIN1181 View Post

    But a shitty team makes the super bowl every year because football is arbitrary and the best team doesn't win as often as other sports.

    COMPLETELY disagree with this statement. football is the least arbitrary of the major sports and the best team wins more often than in the other sports.

    Here are the winning percentages for the top 7 teams in the NFL, NHL, NBA, MLB from 2010-2011. and you can't say its like that because NFL plays less games. if you add up all the winning % of all the games of all the top teams every season the numbers are virtually identical in each league.

    clearly the better teams in football win more often than in other sports. a lesser team makes the superbowl frequently because they don't do a series. its 1 and done. give bellichek and the pats a best of 7 of any team in the league eveRy season oveR the last decade and the pats would have 6+ supeRbowls. and i absolutely hate the pats.

    NFL:

    .875
    .813
    .750
    .750
    .688
    .688
    .688

    NHL:

    .713
    .652
    .646
    .646
    .640
    .630
    .628

    NBA:

    .756
    .707
    .744
    .695
    .695
    .683
    .671

    MLB:

    .599
    .593
    .586
    .580
    .568
    .562
    .562
    Edited By: Esarbe Jul 14th, 2011 at 06:42 AM
  2. AMARTIN1181 AMARTIN1181 is offline

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    Jul 14th, 2011 (7/14/2011 6:45am) in reply to Esarbe

    and this proves what? I am aware they play more games in baseball and basketball. Just using your pats example (and I'm a Giants fan) was it more impressive for the pats to go 18-1 or for the Giants to sneak into the playoffs at 10-6, get hot and play amazing defense in the super bowl.

    "Arbitrary" is the wrong word for it, probably.
  3. Esarbe Esarbe is offline

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    Jul 14th, 2011 (7/14/2011 6:47am) in reply to AMARTIN1181

    it proves that the best team wins more frequently in the NFL. the opposite of your original statement.
    Edited By: Esarbe Jul 14th, 2011 at 06:49 AM
  4. AMARTIN1181 AMARTIN1181 is offline

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    Jul 14th, 2011 (7/14/2011 6:49am) in reply to Esarbe

    I don't see how it proves that at all, maybe I'm missing the point?
  5. Esarbe Esarbe is offline

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    Jul 14th, 2011 (7/14/2011 6:54am) in reply to AMARTIN1181

    How do you not see that if top NFL teams win a larger percentage of the time than in other sports, that the better team wins more often in the NFL than in other sports -- making it less arbitrary.
    Edited By: Esarbe Jul 14th, 2011 at 06:55 AM
  6. Hughes4 Hughes4 is online now

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    Jul 14th, 2011 (7/14/2011 6:55am) in reply to Esarbe

    It in no way proves anything
  7. Esarbe Esarbe is offline

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    Jul 14th, 2011 (7/14/2011 6:58am) in reply to Hughes4

    lol. it factually pRoves that the betteR team wins moRe often in the NFL than in otheR spoRts.

    its liteRally a fact.
  8. Hughes4 Hughes4 is online now

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    Jul 14th, 2011 (7/14/2011 6:59am) in reply to Esarbe

     
    Originally Posted by Esarbe View Post


    and you can't say its like that because NFL plays less games.

    dots
  9. suitedaces1012 suitedaces1012 is offline

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    Jul 14th, 2011 (7/14/2011 7:05am) in reply to Hughes4

    are you an idiot? how does it not prove anything? he pointed out that statistically, there is a greater correlation between the best nfl team based on an objective ruling, record; they win the title more often in which inherently dictates them as the best nfl team, and you declare the stats pointless? only thing u could refute is that the nfl season is shorter, thus less variance results; but you didnt say nething. you just said it doesnt prove anything...good argument!

    i would have never guessed those stats, but they do seem to support the argument that the winner of the super bowl is most correlated with the best team when compared against other sports.
  10. Hughes4 Hughes4 is online now

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    Jul 14th, 2011 (7/14/2011 7:08am) in reply to suitedaces1012

     
    Originally Posted by suitedaces1012 View Post

    only thing u could refute is that the nfl season is shorter, thus less variance results; but you didnt say nething. you just said it doesnt prove anything...good argument!

    This is a fun sentence just to read, reread, and laugh at.
  11. AMARTIN1181 AMARTIN1181 is offline

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    Jul 14th, 2011 (7/14/2011 7:08am) in reply to Hughes4

    I'd say in the nba the "best team" (how do we know who the best is anyways? who says the best team has to win?) wins the most often, followed by baseball and then football. I don't think winning percentage really dictates that at all. Obviously in a 162 game season there aren't going to be any teams with .800 winning percentages, wtf? I'm just a bigger fan of baseball and basketball, I wasn't trying to start some big ass debate here.
    Edited By: AMARTIN1181 Jul 14th, 2011 at 07:09 AM
  12. suitedaces1012 suitedaces1012 is offline

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    Jul 14th, 2011 (7/14/2011 7:09am) in reply to Hughes4

     
    Originally Posted by Hughes4 View Post

    This is a fun sentence just to read, reread, and laugh at.

    expand
  13. AMARTIN1181 AMARTIN1181 is offline

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    Jul 14th, 2011 (7/14/2011 7:10am) in reply to suitedaces1012

    Maybe go back and find the past 20 champions and see where they finished the regular season and maybe that would be a decent argument? I'm not sure what that proves maybe I'm dense.
  14. Johnny Slippy Johnny Slippy is offline Pudding Slut

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    Jul 14th, 2011 (7/14/2011 7:11am) in reply to AMARTIN1181

    The Phillies can go 12-4 over 16 games too...Doubt they're going to finish the season at .750.
  15. Hughes4 Hughes4 is online now

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    Jul 14th, 2011 (7/14/2011 7:13am) in reply to AMARTIN1181

     
    Originally Posted by AMARTIN1181 View Post

    I'd say in the nba the "best team" (how do we know who the best is anyways? who says the best team has to win?) wins the most often, followed by baseball and then football. I don't think winning percentage really dictates that at all. Obviously in a 162 game season there aren't going to be any teams with .800 winning percentages,

    I'd say basketball definitely trumps football by far. I can't really even estimate the variability in baseball.. It all depends on starting pitcher. Is it just ace vs. ace? From game to game it changes too much. But, there is oodles of randomness in baseball so I wouldn't count it out as being more variable than football.

     
    Originally Posted by suitedaces1012 View Post

    expand

    Take a basic level statistics course.
  16. suitedaces1012 suitedaces1012 is offline

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    Jul 14th, 2011 (7/14/2011 7:16am) in reply to Hughes4

    or maybe you are just putting too much emphasis on variance instead of results
  17. marc1313 marc1313 is offline

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    Jul 14th, 2011 (7/14/2011 7:20am) in reply to suitedaces1012

    off the top of my head:

    - 1988 dodgers. bulldog + gibson + tons of heart was all they had. no business being on the same field as the mets and a's that year.
    - 1994 chargers. i think they had a decent record, and seau was a beast but holy hell how the fuck did they beat the steelers? one of the worst super bowls ever, wish pitt had got their chance against the niners. 3 more yards neil 3 more yards! that was a great afc champ. game tho. alfred pupunu and dennis gibson talk about 2 unlikely heroes.
    - 2006 cardinals. almost blew like a 10 game lead with 2 weeks left, finished with like 84 wins or so, and shipped it. david fucking eckstein.
  18. XXEDPXX XXEDPXX is offline

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    Jul 14th, 2011 (7/14/2011 7:23am) in reply to marc1313

    is the question does the best team consistently win more games or does the best team consistently win the championship? the best team wins the championship more often in sports with series. specifically basketball.
  19. suitedaces1012 suitedaces1012 is offline

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    Jul 14th, 2011 (7/14/2011 7:29am) in reply to XXEDPXX

    Yes, the framework of nba playoffs i would say, subjectively, presents the best option of awarding the title to the best team. This is due to various factors that don't go into the season record such as resilience, durability, etc... But, esarbe statistically pointed out that the nfl playoffs produce the title being awarded to the team most deserving according to record at a much higher correlation than other sports. and dumbass said this is incorrect, and simply dismissed it due to his own belief rather than being objective about the matter.
  20. Johnny Slippy Johnny Slippy is offline Pudding Slut

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    Jul 14th, 2011 (7/14/2011 7:31am) in reply to suitedaces1012

    That stat mean nothing. If there was a sport that had a one game regular season, then the Champion would always be undefeated...

    1.000
  21. suitedaces1012 suitedaces1012 is offline

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    Jul 14th, 2011 (7/14/2011 7:35am) in reply to Johnny Slippy

    I was under the impression that the statistics he presented were the winning percentage of the team that ended up wining the title allocated to their sport, thus you have to win the title; your season record doesn't just carry over.
  22. XXEDPXX XXEDPXX is offline

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    Jul 14th, 2011 (7/14/2011 7:39am) in reply to suitedaces1012

     
    Originally Posted by suitedaces1012 View Post

    Yes, the framework of nba playoffs i would say, subjectively, presents the best option of awarding the title to the best team. This is due to various factors that don't go into the season record such as resilience, durability, etc... But, esarbe statistically pointed out that the nfl playoffs produce the title being awarded to the team most deserving according to record at a much higher correlation than other sports. and dumbass said this is incorrect, and simply dismissed it due to his own belief rather than being objective about the matter.

    it doesnt say that
  23. Johnny Slippy Johnny Slippy is offline Pudding Slut

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    Jul 14th, 2011 (7/14/2011 7:42am) in reply to suitedaces1012

     
    Originally Posted by suitedaces1012 View Post

    I was under the impression that the statistics he presented were the winning percentage of the team that ended up wining the title allocated to their sport, thus you have to win the title; your season record doesn't just carry over.

    I thought they were just the winning % of the 7 top teams in each sport last season.
  24. suitedaces1012 suitedaces1012 is offline

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    Jul 14th, 2011 (7/14/2011 7:46am) in reply to Johnny Slippy

    yes i think you are right, void everything i said and blame it on stones russian imperial stout
  25. Hughes4 Hughes4 is online now

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    Jul 14th, 2011 (7/14/2011 7:47am) in reply to suitedaces1012

  26. warden warden is online now

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    Jul 14th, 2011 (7/14/2011 8:24am) in reply to Esarbe

     
    Originally Posted by Esarbe View Post

    clearly the better teams in football win more often than in other sports. a lesser team makes the superbowl frequently because they don't do a series. its 1 and done. give bellichek and the pats a best of 7 of any team in the league eveRy season oveR the last decade and the pats would have 6+ supeRbowls. and i absolutely hate the pats.

    if you actually want to show this, you should NOT show just straight winning percentages; you should show the ranking that a certain record would give a team that year (i.e. last year's packers were tied for the 8th best record in the league last season)

    looking at it that way, let's look at the last few year's champions:

    NFL:
    8th
    2nd
    2nd
    7th
    4th
    5th
    2nd
    AVG: 4.285

    MLB:
    5th
    1st
    5th
    1st
    13th
    2nd
    3rd
    AVG: 4.285

    NBA:
    4th
    3rd
    2nd
    1st
    3rd
    5th
    2nd
    AVG: 2.857

    some notes:

    1. NBA runs away with it, obviously. the best teams tend to win the NBA championship. 7 game series do that.
    2. baseball/football tie, but not really. football benefits in this analysis from ties; despite the fact that a particular team may have had the 6th best record in the league, they might have tied for that spot with 4 other teams. that means even allowing the kindest analysis possible for football, it still just ties w/ baseball in terms of "best team winning."

    and baseball is obviously hampered by the 2006 st. louis cardinals.

    so basically your statistics, without context, are meaningless, and AMARTIN is, as usual, spot on.
     2
  27. goofy2485 goofy2485 is offline This thread sucks.

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    Jul 14th, 2011 (7/14/2011 8:41am) in reply to warden

    2010-2011 Bulls
    2010 Bears
  28. RonKarkovice RonKarkovice is offline

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    Jul 14th, 2011 (7/14/2011 8:58am) in reply to goofy2485

    WHO WANT TO SEX MUTUMBO?!
  29. Hughes4 Hughes4 is online now

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    Jul 14th, 2011 (7/14/2011 9:16am) in reply to warden

     
    Originally Posted by warden View Post


    1. NBA runs away with it, obviously. the best teams tend to win the NBA championship. 7 game series do that.
    2. baseball/football tie, but not really. football benefits in this analysis from ties; despite the fact that a particular team may have had the 6th best record in the league, they might have tied for that spot with 4 other teams. that means even allowing the kindest analysis possible for football, it still just ties w/ baseball in terms of "best team winning.".

    your averages give evidence for what should be pretty obvious...the best nba teams will win more often because of the series format.

    but, a better question is in a one-game scenario, in which sports will the better team win most consistently?

    basketball is probably the most reliable.
    between football and baseball, it's a toss up imo
  30. Niceguy Niceguy is offline I will find you.

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    Jul 14th, 2011 (7/14/2011 9:29am) in reply to Hughes4

    Whoever said that sixers team wins. Pretty sure there are oters who could have started on that team.
    Edited By: Niceguy Jul 14th, 2011 at 09:29 AM
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