Reads – we are 16 left and I have a top 5 stack and approx 30bb
Villain is super active and has opened nearely ever pot that has folded to him. Our history is last orbit he raised BvB and I 3 bet with JJ and he folded.
Next hand he opens btn and I 3 bet in the SB with QQ he flats I c bet a low raggy flop half pot and he folds
Very next hand he opens CO and I flat with KTs (45bb effective) he c bets a KTx flop I raise to neat pot, he flats turn is a A he checks I check behind (QJ got there AT got there etc and I dont think he has a A alot here so I want to get value on river). River is a gross J. So board is KTxAJ and he jams 1.5x the pot into me and i fold

So this spot comes up next orbit, I think I am ahead of his open range and I should have some decent FE. I dont really want to 3 bet small as I think he can spazz shove alot here and I am not a fan of 3b/call 22 for value!
I can flat i think but 22 is gonan be so hard to play OOP versus a agrro villain
I can shove but its possible a bit thin although +ev (+2.1bb) if he opens 55% hands on btn and calls a ship with top 13% which is posisble a wide calling range 33+,A7s+,KJs+,ATo+,KJo+ but given our history this is likely

or I can fold….

basically do we think that this is +ev enough to take a high variance play. I have been pretty comfortable (up to KTs hand) and chipping up pretty well
Poker stars $10 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t7000/t14000 Blinds + t1750 – 8 players


MP2: BB = 19.2, t269059
CO: BB = 14.7, t206269
BTN: BB = 64.1, t897622
jamming19 (SB): BB = 29.4, t412101
BB: BB = 25.6, t357899
UTG: BB = 90.1, t1261829
UTG+1: BB = 6.5, t91374
MP1: BB = 16.7, t234016
Pre Flop: (t35000) jamming19 is SB with 2 2
5 folds, BTN raises to t42000, jamming19 raises to t410351 all in