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Is this game beatable? (Live PLO)

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  1. douglas333 douglas333 is offline

    Cleveland, OH
    United States

    Posts: 48
    Joined: Jun 05

    Feb 22nd, 2012 (2/22/2012 8:59pm)

    This is a private house game. PLO where initial buy-ins range from 200 to 1000. 3 regulars drive the action. They constantly bet pot and rarely fold. They want to play big pots and rarely can you isolate any one of them. Show down is usually between the 3 of them and maybe 1 other player. Its almost like you are playing against 1 guy with 12 cards, and every street is potted. Usually 2 of them are huge losers and 1 of them is a huge winner. Then the rest of the table varies. After about 2 hours they are on their 3rd or 4th buy-in. For example, last week 2 of them were in for 6k and one of them was up 10k. To get to my question, can I actually expect to be a winner in this game long term? Or is it high stakes bingo? Omaha is not my best game for sure, but these 3 gentlemen are not pros. Their PLO game might rank just above checkers or tic tac toe. The best idea I have come up with is to take 1k and instead of lighting it on fire, take a shot in this game. I look forward to feedback.
  2. iamthedeck ftw iamthedeck ftw is offline

    Windsor
    Canada

    Posts: 1,184
    Joined: Jan 10

    Feb 22nd, 2012 (2/22/2012 9:21pm) in reply to douglas333

    What are the blinds? The fact that players are leaving up 10k and down 6k should tell you that you are not even close to rolled for the game. It sounds like these 3 players are fkn horrible if they are in every hand calling/betting pot every street.
     
  3. C_Bomb C_Bomb is offline

    Croydon
    Australia

    Posts: 755
    Joined: Jun 09

    Feb 22nd, 2012 (2/22/2012 10:04pm) in reply to iamthedeck ftw

    if you would be happy to burn the money then playing in that game would be a better way to spend it, but consider it gone as soon as you buy in and be happy if you make some money.
  4. whitechoclate whitechoclate is offline

    Dallas, GA
    United States

    Posts: 960
    Joined: Aug 07

    Feb 22nd, 2012 (2/22/2012 10:14pm) in reply to C_Bomb

    sounds like they are working together trying to take everybody else money
  5. iPlayTourneys iPlayTourneys is offline

    Brazil

    Posts: 1,019
    Joined: Mar 10

    Feb 23rd, 2012 (2/23/2012 1:42am) in reply to whitechoclate

    If you play it make sure you have at least 20K+ and be ready for some swings.
    161 
  6. TrueMetalMan TrueMetalMan is offline

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    Joined: Feb 10

    Feb 23rd, 2012 (2/23/2012 2:14am) in reply to iPlayTourneys

    Sounds like some collusion for sure.
  7. douglas333 douglas333 is offline

    Cleveland, OH
    United States

    Posts: 48
    Joined: Jun 05

    Feb 23rd, 2012 (2/23/2012 2:46am) in reply to TrueMetalMan

    Its not collusion. Its just 3 idiots with money who like to gamble it up at their buddies house.

    blinds are 5-5

    I should add that all 3 players are not there some weeks. When only 1 or 2 out of the 3 are there it is a much more manageable game. Due to the fact that they are not going get the same action from other players. But when all 3 are sitting in, the circus is in town.

    Also they started playing round by round with a round of plo then nlh. Because players have been requesting it. On the hold'em rounds the 3 of them play best hand for $300. Meaning they announce fold but keep their cards then at showdown one of them scoops $900. They find hold'em very boring.
    Thread Starter
  8. norv norv is offline

    New Zealand

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    Joined: Aug 10

    Feb 23rd, 2012 (2/23/2012 7:15am) in reply to douglas333

    sounds like these buddies have something going on.......
  9. yjbrewer yjbrewer is offline

    Rapid City, SD
    United States

    Posts: 3,927
    Joined: Jan 07

    Feb 23rd, 2012 (2/23/2012 12:55pm) in reply to norv

    I would love to play game. Play tight
  10. Crystal extacY Crystal extacY is offline

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    Feb 23rd, 2012 (2/23/2012 6:59pm) in reply to yjbrewer

    omg sounds like a sick game
  11. supra1988t supra1988t is online now

    Cary, IL
    United States

    Posts: 2,011
    Joined: Sep 05

    Feb 24th, 2012 (2/24/2012 10:32pm) in reply to Crystal extacY

    sounds like a dream game as long as the 3 aren't playing on the same roll.
    649 
  12. douglas333 douglas333 is offline

    Cleveland, OH
    United States

    Posts: 48
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    Feb 25th, 2012 (2/25/2012 8:47am) in reply to supra1988t

    I know its hard to rule out collusion given the info I have provided. But I am 99% sure its not collusion. A couple reasons why is these 3 guys are so different from one another and do not hang out away from the table. One owns a pizzaria, another a construction company, and the other may or may not be a drug dealer. Another reason is they NEVER muck their hands. They always show what kind of garbage they chased you down with or what they were trying to chase you down with. Also, I witnessed just the other night a 4 way all-in with one card to come. The dope boy called off 3k attempting to hit a Jack high flush. As you would expect when the hands rolled out he was drawing stone dead. Def -EV to you and your buddies profits if your colluding.
    Thread Starter
  13. yjbrewer yjbrewer is offline

    Rapid City, SD
    United States

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    Feb 26th, 2012 (2/26/2012 1:31am) in reply to douglas333

    I need to book a trip to that game.
  14. lordxixor101 lordxixor101 is offline

    Westland, MI
    United States

    Posts: 6,364
    Joined: Mar 06

    Feb 26th, 2012 (2/26/2012 1:58am) in reply to yjbrewer

    I'm no PLO expert (far from it), but assuming your rolled for it, how could this not be beatable? Sure, the variance will be sick, since you have to beat 2-3 people every hand, but you don't have to win every hand. Assuming hands you lose, your losing $500 of your own money (or whatever) but when you win, your winning $1k-$1.5k of their money. If you win 40% of your hands, you'll have a sick roi.

    You either play one of two ways. If you can see flops cheaply, then play lots of hands, wait to you have great flops, and get it in. Be willing to fold any time you aren't sure, even if your folding winners occasionally. If you can't get to the flop, then wait until you have great PLO starting hands, and then just get as much as you can in preflop when your ahead, and let it play itself out.

    If it's a regular home game, even the worst gamblers will figure out eventually that you are only playing premium hands, and will fold to you. When this happens, then you can move back to playing how your comfortable.

    Remember, any poker game is beatable, but you have to play the right way to beat it. You can't always play 'your way' and win, you have to play how the table lets you if you want to win.
  15. dannydunks dannydunks is offline

    Hackettstown, NJ
    United States

    Posts: 318
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    Feb 26th, 2012 (2/26/2012 2:14am) in reply to douglas333

     
    Originally Posted by douglas333 View Post

    Its not collusion. Its just 3 idiots with money who like to gamble it up at their buddies house.

    blinds are 5-5

    I should add that all 3 players are not there some weeks. When only 1 or 2 out of the 3 are there it is a much more manageable game. Due to the fact that they are not going get the same action from other players. But when all 3 are sitting in, the circus is in town.

    Also they started playing round by round with a round of plo then nlh. Because players have been requesting it. On the hold'em rounds the 3 of them play best hand for $300. Meaning they announce fold but keep their cards then at showdown one of them scoops $900. They find hold'em very boring.

    do we play in the same home game?
  16. The Baby Bull The Baby Bull is offline

    Los Angeles, CA
    United States

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    Joined: Dec 07

    Feb 26th, 2012 (2/26/2012 2:20am) in reply to dannydunks

    Sounds beatable by a good enough player. Juicy even. But also high variance. So find a backer maybe?
     
  17. peryan peryan is offline

    Alexandria, MN
    United States

    Posts: 7
    Joined: Apr 11

    Feb 26th, 2012 (2/26/2012 7:31am) in reply to The Baby Bull

    Yes, Live PLO is beatable. Start strong, with nut flush draws and strong run down hands. The biggest mistake i see is people getting in shitty flush draws vs nut draws. Yes, variance in this game is an absolute bitch. However, with the right attitude, and dedication, its potential for upside is huge. I made my living this year playing 2-5, and 1-3 at Aria. If you want to talk game with me send me a PM.
  18. douglas333 douglas333 is offline

    Cleveland, OH
    United States

    Posts: 48
    Joined: Jun 05

    Feb 26th, 2012 (2/26/2012 8:54am) in reply to peryan

    Currently I'm crushing the 2-5 nlh only game. Thats on a different night than the plo nlh round by round. The nlh only night doesnt attract all 3 players but is still great action. If I have another winning session in nlh I'll take a shot in the plo round by round the following night.
    Thread Starter
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