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good/bad overshove?

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  1. lollipop_ lollipop_ is offline

    Riga
    Latvia

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    Joined: Jun 12

    Jul 2nd, 2012 (7/2/2012 2:26pm)

    I am just learning to play tourneys and transfer from live cash to live and online tournaments. Recently I played a live tournament, and was wondering if I made the correct decision or am I just thinking wrong:

    Blinds: 400/800, ante 50.
    Hero: 11k

    A new player just sat down with lots of chips. Looks like a pretty decent online-playing player. He raised two hands in a row -BU and CO. no showdown. The next he raises again on the HJ to 1800 (so three in a row), and I wake up with A9o on the BU. And thought I have a good enough stack and ''image'' for him to fold and pushed all in 11k. Unfortunately, he had a monster- AQs.

    Do you think I have made a mistake here? The tourney was 30 min levels, starting stack-10k.

    Thanks !
  2. Adam Adam is offline Emperor

    Atlanta, GA
    United States

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    Jul 2nd, 2012 (7/2/2012 2:40pm) in reply to lollipop_

    I don't normally shove in a situation like this for a few reasons:

    1) I wouldn't assume the guy's hyper aggressive just because he raises his first 3 hands at the table. Usually people avoid doing that unless by the 2nd or 3rd hand they have some decent cards. Now he does have a ton of chips and could just be trying to steal everything, but my point is more that you haven't seen enough to really know what his image is at the table. 3 hands is a very small snapshot. If you've been playing with him for an hour or even a half hour, you should know a lot more.

    2) Your odds in a showdown don't look so good. If he is raising with 3 8, I'm sure he's folding. But chances of him calling with a lower ace are also very low. Most times you get called, it's going to be a higher ace or a pair. Maybe something like KQ, which you match up a little better against. But anyway, I'd think against most players your best case here is to face 88- or KQ, and the rest of the time you're up against a big favorite. So you're basically in a flip or you're a big underdog. Might want to wait in spots like this and consider more shoving something that's at least going to match up decently against likely calling hands like AK, AQ, etc
     
  3. djdoodoo djdoodoo is offline

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    Jul 2nd, 2012 (7/2/2012 2:46pm) in reply to lollipop_

     
    Originally Posted by lollipop_ View Post

    A new player just sat down with lots of chips. Looks like a pretty decent online-playing player.

    I'm really struggling to see how you can just make this assumption when he just sat down and played 2 hands without showdown.

    Just because he raises 3 hands in a row doesn't mean he needs to be hyper aggro or has air each time. Remember he didn't showdown once and a hand sample of 3 is really small. You put yourself in a really hard spot with A9 and a fold is good here or a small 3bet.
    Edited By: djdoodoo Jul 2nd, 2012 at 02:50 PM
  4. lollipop_ lollipop_ is offline

    Riga
    Latvia

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    Jul 2nd, 2012 (7/2/2012 3:05pm) in reply to lollipop_

    Thanks !
    Thread Starter
  5. woxix woxix is offline

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    Jul 2nd, 2012 (7/2/2012 3:11pm) in reply to lollipop_

    only against a player whom you know very well it would be ok and that shove would be more for value rather than 3b bluff coz ur FE(fold equity) w/12 bbs vs BigStack @ live is pretty small in most cases.But as i played it myself and it's against Latvians it might be ok coz many of them fold small pairs AT etc in those spots, but not if he was a reg.
    Ludzu, gl
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  6. norfair18 norfair18 is offline

    Costa Rica

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    Jul 3rd, 2012 (7/3/2012 12:34am) in reply to woxix

    The biggest mistake, as another poster above commented, is if you go allin with a8 and he calls, you're likely way behind. Better to go in with say JTs.
    514 
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