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Should I be concerned about these stats

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  1. lordxixor101 lordxixor101 is offline

    Westland, MI
    United States

    Posts: 6,364
    Joined: Mar 06

    Feb 5th, 2012 (2/5/2012 10:35pm)

    A little background, I was playing online poker since about 2007. At first, I was a breakeven player, but through posting threads, etc, I got better. I consider myself a winning online player, having posted profits from 2007 up until Black Friday 2011 (I played an insignifcant amount on Merge, and am down since BF, if that somehow matters here). My best year was in 2010, after Full Tilt launched the rush tournaments, where I won at the $11 and $26 ones, and was able to post a $10k profit for the year (huge since it's just extra money, my full time job pays the bills, so this is just money to blow).

    Since BF, I've dabbled in local tournaments, even with their horrid blind and rake structures. In minimal play (under 20 tournaments) I've monied a fair amount and have over 100% ROI). From my past online play, and witnessing the horrid play in these, though I know this isn't significant, I think I could post a profit in these.

    However, my cash game isn't so bright. In the past year, I've played about 150 hours, and I'm breakeven (on non vacation time, I'm down exactly $80 during this time, this includes tipping, doesn't include other auxillary expenses). (If it matters, I played 10 hours in Vegas and won $250 not counted here).

    My natural tendency is to look at a handful of hands that I got screwed on (i've run 4 times all in having KK running into AA preflop, but haven't had the reverse happen once, though I see people push their KK preflop), and say if I discount those, I'm really a winning player that's running bad. The problem is, all sorts of losing players do that, and I don't want to kid myself.

    So, do good players run bad over 150 hours. If so, what is a fair amount to get a feeling for (realizing that, since I play weekends, devoting more than maybe 250-300 hours a year just isn't going to happen) what's happening.

    Any advice would be appreciated
  2. boneralert boneralert is offline

    Fort Worth, TX
    United States

    Posts: 673
    Joined: Jan 11

    Feb 5th, 2012 (2/5/2012 11:07pm) in reply to lordxixor101

    Someone who knows more about live poker can tell you what a typical hands/hour is at these tables, but Im guessing it isnt too high. It's definitely under 10k hands for your total sample size, which means you could quite easily be the victim of variance. Surely there are online cash game grinders who play in a day the amount of hands youve played over the 150 hours, and they will of course have break-even and losing days.

    It could also be that your game is more suited to tournament play and your cash game isn't as strong. But its hard to say either way. I would just try to focus on whether you feel like you are making good decisions at the table and work on whatever areas of weakness you feel you have.
  3. donkiman donkiman is offline

    Posts: 1,333
    Joined: Aug 10

    Feb 6th, 2012 (2/6/2012 2:53pm) in reply to boneralert

    Live poker is tough to diagnose as the variance can last much longer than online (in terms of days and weeks). If you are on an extended downswing its really only up to you to decide if what your doing will be profitable long term. It sounds like you just had some coolers and managed to break even, so once you are on the other side of those setups you should turn a profit.

    Its much easier to evaluate online play as you can work through your variance MUCh quicker. For example I played 18 mtts today, cashed in 0, but still feel I played well. I know this is just a temporary downswing and should work through it in the next day or two. Had this type of run been in live games I could image it would have lasted weeks, if not months and I would be pulling my hair out (or making a p5s thread).

    Not sure how many hands you see per hour live vs. online, but im sure someone here can make a comparison to your 150 hour break even sample.
     
  4. MYBLUEDOG MYBLUEDOG is offline

    Greenville, MS
    United States

    Posts: 1,998
    Joined: May 07

    Feb 6th, 2012 (2/6/2012 4:41pm) in reply to donkiman

    When you are playing live, there are lots of distractions. Some good dealers with get between 25 to 40 hands per hour in contested pots (flop is seen).

    If you have played 150 hours that works out to be 3750 hands to 6000 hands (probably closer to the 3000 #). Not many dealers will consistently get out more than 25 hands per hour (shuffling/dealing, dealer changes, counting the box, getting box fill, logging in players, etc.).

    3000 hands is an extremely small sample to make a decision on whether it reflects your true ability or just random luck (probably more chance of luck).
  5. tank766 tank766 is offline

    Posts: 18
    Joined: Dec 11

    Feb 7th, 2012 (2/7/2012 3:28am) in reply to MYBLUEDOG

    I consider myself to be a profitable live player. I too also have a job and play live about 12-16 hours a week for mostly fun, competition and to make a little extra cash. I keep records of win and losses and then tally up at the end of each month. I am playing $2-5 with a $500 max buy in and have had months where I won 4-6K and also have had months where I have lost 5k. It is all variance. The last 5 weeks I have been really on a downswing with only winning 2 out of 10 sessions but never felt like I played it bad and usually get it in when I am a favorite but Variance is a factor. Also, I think it gets in your head when your losing and you miss reads cause you just want to win a hand. Anyway, keep grinding and you can overcome the variance.
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