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Article: Randomness and Unpredictability

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  1. grapsfan grapsfan is offline Head Curmudgeon

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    Apr 25th, 2008 (4/25/2008 1:51pm)

     
  2. lordxixor101 lordxixor101 is offline

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    Apr 25th, 2008 (4/25/2008 2:50pm) in reply to grapsfan

    <p>Well, though I agree with Graps (from everything I've seen, it seems like the RNG's are random enough to be useful), I'm sure this won't convince everyone.  It's easier to blame the RNG for your losses than to look in the mirror and say that you aren't good, but you wan to get better.</p>
  3. seal seal is offline

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    Apr 25th, 2008 (4/25/2008 2:57pm) in reply to grapsfan

    <p>The thing about Graps is not just that he is a great writer, but he includes diagrams!</p>
  4. BigA524 BigA524 is offline

    Chicago, IL
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    Apr 25th, 2008 (4/25/2008 3:17pm) in reply to grapsfan

    <p>What did stars pay for this article? :)</p>
  5. krhpoker3 krhpoker3 is offline

    Anchorage, AK
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    Apr 25th, 2008 (4/25/2008 3:22pm) in reply to grapsfan

    <p>mine don't say "bump" in the night.......</p>
  6. DJam21 DJam21 is offline

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    Apr 25th, 2008 (4/25/2008 3:36pm) in reply to grapsfan

    <p>My head hurts.</p>
  7. Waters Waters is offline

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    Apr 25th, 2008 (4/25/2008 4:05pm) in reply to grapsfan

    <p>I can understand nine words in this article now! ;) Thanks for the insight.</p>
     
  8. bravecow bravecow is offline

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    Apr 25th, 2008 (4/25/2008 4:51pm) in reply to grapsfan

    <p>The ONLY thing I notice to be less than randon is the flop comming out all one suit more than I have seen in any cardroom. Then again the number of hands in a cardroom I see are far less than online.</p>
  9. vgnnry vgnnry is offline

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    Apr 25th, 2008 (4/25/2008 5:18pm) in reply to grapsfan

    <p>very random indeed...esp when u hit the cashout button and every hand after that is a cooler</p>
  10. JonesZ JonesZ is offline

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    Apr 25th, 2008 (4/25/2008 6:19pm) in reply to grapsfan

    <p>grapsfan is comparing apples to oranges. The slot machine algorithm is hard-coded in the hardware.  To suggest that a slot machine algorithm and online poker software algorithm work the same or similar is not correct. </p>
  11. dealace1 dealace1 is offline @ UFC 115 via UB

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    Apr 25th, 2008 (4/25/2008 6:39pm) in reply to grapsfan

    <p>I've always believed their deck is random. It wasn't until Potripper on AP that I realized site owners can be ultra-greedy. The rake just isn't enough for all of them...</p>
  12. slizza420 slizza420 is offline College Algebra FTW

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    Apr 25th, 2008 (4/25/2008 6:53pm) in reply to grapsfan

    <p>  Well I run like shyt usually live and online  so the live deck must be rigged for me too!!!!!</p>
  13. HiRaX HiRaX is offline

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    Apr 25th, 2008 (4/25/2008 7:39pm) in reply to grapsfan

    <p>so basically your saying its rigged....ahh I sooooo knew it.</p>
  14. j_farah j_farah is offline

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    Apr 25th, 2008 (4/25/2008 8:09pm) in reply to grapsfan

    <p>"Some use software feedback (i.e. mouse positioning on client computers) or multiple-seeded algorithms."</p>
    <p>Aha, so moving your mouse when you're all in does prevent bad beats!</p>
  15. towman1 towman1 is offline

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    Apr 25th, 2008 (4/25/2008 9:13pm) in reply to grapsfan

    <p>It's obv still rigged</p>
  16. freeworld777 freeworld777 is offline

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    Apr 25th, 2008 (4/25/2008 9:14pm) in reply to grapsfan

    <p>I believe the solution is 5</p>
  17. zenon zenon is offline

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    Apr 25th, 2008 (4/25/2008 9:17pm) in reply to grapsfan

    <p>The real problem is NOT that there is no randomness in the typical deal generated by a poker site. Rather it is TOO random. That is because the seed is re-generated with each deal and it is a very, very big seed. (See pokerstars explanation of their seed.)</p>
    <p>By contrast, the 'seed' in a casino deal is much smaller and it is largely fixed. You have a much more stable array in a live 52 card deck than you do online. The dealer scrambles the deck once, pushes them together and places them in the shffle machine. The seed was the scramble and it is never done again unless you ask for a setup.</p>
    <p>The laws of probability are more fully reflected online than live but the way we have learned to play is by interpreting the laws of probability by player experience in live play.</p>
    <p>I would expect that as online play and simulated, non-dealer play both expand, we will see a re-interpretation of how to use the laws of probability in poker. When that happens, online poker would have completely redefined the game.</p>
  18. grapsfan grapsfan is offline Head Curmudgeon

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    Apr 25th, 2008 (4/25/2008 11:54pm) in reply to grapsfan

    <p>Not sure I understand your point about "interpreting the laws of probability in live play", zenon.  WTF?  The # of outs, and the probabilities associated with them, don't change unless you know for sure that a card's location in the deck means it isn't in play for this hand.  Shuffling routines in live card rooms are good enough to avoid that situation the vast majority of the time.</p>
     
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  19. Nickmeister Nickmeister is offline

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    Apr 25th, 2008 (4/25/2008 11:56pm) in reply to grapsfan

    <p>It may be random, but I see a certain pattern continuing all the time when playing tournaments on AP. It also depends on the the number of chips you are holding. The larger stacks usually have a greater probability of winning than the smaller stacks no matter what cards they are holding. I think live games are naturally more random without certain patterns repeating all the time like you find online.</p>
  20. resilient resilient is offline

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    Apr 26th, 2008 (4/26/2008 2:16am) in reply to grapsfan

    <p>very solid explanation of the processes... tyvm!!!</p>
     
  21. MikeTJ23 MikeTJ23 is offline

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    Apr 26th, 2008 (4/26/2008 3:45am) in reply to grapsfan

    <p>Self fulfilling prophecy - a negative mindset will cause negative results to become more likely.  </p>
    <p>thought translation via the energy of your mind (all energy in the universe is part of one large "energy field" if you will) of that negative mindset will result in changing the RNG, or the shuffle, to be set so that the outcome of the hands or tournaments you are in WILL be negative, as expected.  </p>
    <p>hence, tinfoil hat = keep that negative mindset from completely leaking out into the energy field and thus allowing better results.</p>
  22. thelandlord thelandlord is offline

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    Apr 26th, 2008 (4/26/2008 4:01am) in reply to grapsfan

    <p>grapsfan is my hero </p>
     
  23. nezbit nezbit is offline

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    Apr 26th, 2008 (4/26/2008 4:10am) in reply to grapsfan

    <p>the way i c it, is if its rigged its rigged vs everyone. </p>
    <p>I do c patterns though thats for sure. I dont get quad 7s 3 times in an hour live... even if i see as many hands per hour. no way</p>
  24. Derek Galaxy Derek Galaxy is offline

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    Apr 26th, 2008 (4/26/2008 5:17am) in reply to grapsfan

    <p>thx, tips..</p>
  25. Wotan Wotan is offline

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    Apr 26th, 2008 (4/26/2008 7:08am) in reply to grapsfan

    <p>What about winning players who say they don't think it is entirely random?  I know some.</p>
  26. raisethis2 raisethis2 is offline

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    Apr 26th, 2008 (4/26/2008 9:45am) in reply to grapsfan

    <p>The core question for anyone who ever thought online poker may be rigged is:" is it possible for the next card dealt to hurt me and (deliberately) help an opposing player"? That is the definition of rigged in this mindset.</p>
    <p>While a discussion of randomness helps us to understand randomness, the question has to be," can a specific card be selected to be next dealt?" </p>
  27. ripomatic ripomatic is offline

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    Apr 26th, 2008 (4/26/2008 1:22pm) in reply to grapsfan

    <p>so if i understand correctly, the RNG selects a pre determined delt hand, another words the deal could be one that has a flush draw, set or strait in the flop, the RNG just randomly picks from the pre-set deals...(there could be a abundance of deals that have Aces,Kings, flush draws ect...)?????</p>
  28. POKERH4CKS POKERH4CKS is offline

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    Apr 26th, 2008 (4/26/2008 1:33pm) in reply to grapsfan

    <p>and still we keep playing......</p>
  29. grapsfan grapsfan is offline Head Curmudgeon

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    Apr 26th, 2008 (4/26/2008 1:58pm) in reply to grapsfan

    <p>No, rip, you're not understanding correctly.  What you described is basically how a slot machine works, where all the reel stops are preset before the play begins.  But for a poker game, it's not close.</p>
    <p>I'll try to explain how the architecture works as quickly as possible.</p>
    <p>In the case of an online poker room, the RNG just sits there and spits out a constant stream of random numbers between 1 and 52.  When the "dealer" for each table shuffles, it requests a bunch of random numbers to organize the cards in its deck.  Basically, it's shuffling them.  Rather than a riffle shuffle or spread shuffle like you see in a card room, the computer shuffle picks a random order of the 52 cards.</p>
    <p>Once the deck is set, the cards are dealt the same way they would be in a regular game.</p>
    <p>This is admittedly overly simplified.  stars sets its deck at the beginning of the hand.  FTP doesn't set the deck until the dealer needs to deal a card.  For example, the dealer puts out 18 cards, two to each of the 9 players in a full ring Hold'em game.  On FTP, the 34 remaining cards are continuously shuffled until it's time to put the next three cards out for the flop.</p>
    <p>Hope this helps.</p>
     
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  30. grapsfan grapsfan is offline Head Curmudgeon

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    Apr 26th, 2008 (4/26/2008 2:02pm) in reply to grapsfan

    <p>A couple of you have mentioned patterns..."I saw quad 7s three times in an hour", or "I keep seeing 3-flush flops on Absolute."  As human beings, we LOVE matching patterns and associating unrelated events with each other.  Some people see the Virgin Mary in their grilled cheese sandwich.  Some pick-and-choose characters out of the Hebrew version of the Bible to claim a prediction of the Iraq war.  And some of you are looking for conspiracies in online poker rooms.  </p>
     
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