I"d shove here. I think he has to many draws in his range not to get it in here. I mean I doubt he 3 bets so big with a set so his whole range is pretty much draws imo.

 

Originally Posted by PIsom23

I"d shove here. I think he has to many draws in his range not to get it in here. I mean I doubt he 3 bets so big with a set so his whole range is pretty much draws imo.

disagree that he can't have sets here. i mostly grind 25/50 full ring but in this spot if villian perceives us as a random his range is pretty much entirely sets + draws. if you have any history this could be air as well

 

Originally Posted by el arracachero

I dont see the big blind getting out of line here in that board against an UTG raiser. Shoving never gets called by worse and you are like 40% favorite against set, combo draws and draws range. I think this is a fold. but if villain is aggresive I guess you can call down if a draw is not completed.

im not a cash player but that just sounds horrible.

i would bet more into that flop, like $14.50-$15, his raise size seems a lil large for a set, obvcourse doesnt mean he cant have it, for some reason it feels like a 67 spades or some big draw, i think alot of the time im folding this spot if u consider him a solid regular, though i dunno why he would overraise a set here, seems fishy which is why im leaning towards some big str8/flush draw.(his bet size has me shoving alot here) as i think a5 of spades is also in his range

Interested to hear results.

I play these stakes and with these 2 guys on a daily basis (granted I don't know that much about zep's game) and I'm sure they both view you as a fish b/c of your odd stack sizing and probably are counting on you not being able to get away from this exact hand...I would say that this is a faily standard fold and I think that the worst hand that Zep will show up with here is the nut flush draw and I'd expect to see 55 or 88 like 75% of the time. gl!

It's cool, no offense taken...well it's really player and situation dependant but in this case I would say that he's probably never raising a non-flush straight draw, which leaves his range as sets, 67ss and Axss (which has you crushed). He never has the same hand (he'd 3bet that pre) and as I was saying, he probably thinks that his fold equity is lower than it would be against a reg (because fish will probably never fold KQ, KJ etc to a flop raise...again, not saying OP is a fish but he is probably perceived as one b/c he didn't buy-in full) so I would say that weighs his range even more towards mainly sets.

agree with everything frosty is saying

 

Originally Posted by TheSteve

Ok cool I understand everything u said but I have a question. Is it in any way possible this villain is on complete air if he thinks the op is just cbetting? Like if he thinks the op will only stay in with a king or AA can he profitably make this raise? Or is this back to what u said about it being player or situation dependent. Ty in advance

This a good question. If OP is a cbetting a a lot of times, I think its profitable to check raise, because there is a good gap between his cbetting range and his continue to your check raise range. However, I am not so sure if this is a good spot to try it for several reasons:

1. You are oop. Bluff raising should be better when in position because the board is so wet, people might put you on a draw and might call you and you will be OOP

2. Board texture. If you check raise him, dont know if you have good fold equity because of how wet the board is.

3. His PFR position. He is UTG, so he can geniuly have AA, KK, AK, KQ and hands he is not willing to let go for reason #2.

So your idea is good, but you need to be precise about how much frequency villain is cbetting and wheter or not he can make big folds.
Against a rando dont bother making pure air bluffs.

 

Originally Posted by frosty012

That's pretty unlikely, obviously I can't speak for the villain but when I'm flying through my 24 tables I'm not really ever looking for spots to push a fish off what may or not be a cbet bluff with air. This type of play is definitely more common amongst regulars though because you need to be balancing your flop raising range a lot more...against fish I rarely ever bother balancing because I'm likely never going to see them again.

Also, if the villain was going to raise with air here I don't think that he'd make it $54-he'd probably make it somewhere around $40-$45 because that bet should actually look even stronger than what he ended up betting. My guess for this hand is that zep intentionally made his raise bigger than normal to make his set look like a draw, but I could be wrong...

Maybe this but more prolly its that he is trying to get max value from the "percieved" fish as you said earlier