Ok, let�s get hypothetical.<SPAN> </SPAN>If you put him on exactly QQ or AsAx (hypothetically we�re going to say he could hold nothing else here), should you fold?
<SPAN lang=EN>Hold'em Simulation
</SPAN><SPAN class=pptsimtrials1><SPAN lang=EN>5,940 trials (Exhaustive)</SPAN></SPAN> <SPAN lang=EN>board: Qs7s3s </SPAN> <TABLE class=MsoNormalTable cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD><SPAN>Hand</SPAN></TD><TD><SPAN>Pot equity</SPAN></TD><TD><SPAN>Wins</SPAN></TD><TD><SPAN>Ties</SPAN></TD></TR><TR><TD><SPAN>KsKc</SPAN></TD><TD><SPAN>20.40%</SPAN></TD><TD><SPAN>1,212</SPAN></TD><TD><SPAN>0</SPAN></TD></TR><TR><TD><SPAN>AsA,QQ</SPAN></TD><TD><SPAN>79.60%</SPAN></TD><TD><SPAN>4,728</SPAN></TD><TD><SPAN>0</SPAN></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
You�re a 4-1 dog vs. this range.<SPAN> </SPAN>Having only put slightly more than 20% of your stack in to this point, I think you can fold as this big a dog, sure.

Back to the real world.<SPAN> </SPAN>You made 2 statements in this thread that lead me to believe your read was way wrong.<SPAN> </SPAN>They are:

 

(he does it in 2 seconds and then starts giving a confident staredown, which to me means strength)

 

After I folded, he quickly mucked(A sign that he had the goods, since amateurs always showdown big bluffs)

I�m sorry, but you sound like the amateur here.<SPAN> </SPAN>First, a confident staredown is a textbook classic �strong means weak� tell.<SPAN> </SPAN>You can�t always place a lot of stock in that of course, except when the tell is coming from a noob who likely has no clue about tells, then it�s going to be reliable more often than not.<SPAN> </SPAN>Second, quickly mucking isn�t a sign of the goods, it�s actually a sign of a bluff in many cases.<SPAN> </SPAN>Again, we�re talking about a noob amateur player here� the bluff is stressful for them and they release it like a hot potato.<SPAN> </SPAN>With a legit monster, they are more hesitant to release it because they like getting a monster, and those come so sparingly� it�s like if they hold onto it they can extend their happy place by another few moments.<SPAN> </SPAN>

Also, amateurs don�t �always show big bluffs�.<SPAN> </SPAN>Only amateurs with big egos that fancy themselves as tricky players do that.<SPAN> </SPAN>Amateurs that are nitty are much more likely to show you the AsA or QQ here, they like to show their big hands because they�re so proud of them.<SPAN> </SPAN>

I honestly don�t think he was stone bluffing you here, that wouldn�t fit this player profile either.<SPAN> </SPAN>I think he had something that he thought was good enough to raise but wasn�t sure where he was at and felt a lot of tension about, something like AQ or KQ or JsJ.<SPAN> </SPAN>

Finally, you also said this:

 

For some reason I hated this guy, just the way he was playing his strong hands so meekly

Basic, classic �strong means weak, weak means strong� stuff.<SPAN> </SPAN>Here he�s playing the flop strong, so now why all of a sudden does that mean he�s got a monster?<SPAN> </SPAN>He plays his strong hands weak right? <SPAN> </SPAN>Again I don�t think he�s pure bluffing but probably does hold a hand he, in his nitty noob mind, suspects may be weak given that you reraised preflop� so he opts to raise �to find out where he�s at� (lol, I love that one). <SPAN> </SPAN>

<SPAN>This is why my conclusion is that we�re not a 4-1 dog here and I�m not releasing my hand. </SPAN>

 

Originally Posted by Jedi Phil Ivey

good points hitman, im starting to agree with you becuz of that explanation. Im leaning more towards the shove now, but I still think my fold is not 100% idiotic.

Given your read the fold is not 100% idiotic. I think if the guy shows you AsAx while you're thinking, even lil hold'em would fold.

The problem is with your read imo.

Sounds like to me Jedi that you might be the one playing out of your bankroll if youre laying this hand down... And if hes a super nit then why exactly would you believe him to raise you here with the goods...

 

Originally Posted by Oo DISCO oO

ok now thats all said and done, how about an apology to some of the players wasting their times giving you advice that your arguing with?

U hav No class buddy

BLADEDDDDDDD

 

Originally Posted by Jedi Phil Ivey

After I folded, he quickly mucked(A sign that he had the goods, since amateurs always showdown big bluffs), and when I asked what he had, he angrily said he had garbage.

Level?

 

Originally Posted by DFish

the thought of mucking black kings on this board in a live 1/2 nl game w 300 behind is just... well... wow.

sounds like your BR is closer to 800 than 8k if u really want to fold here. the ONLY way you can fold is he actually SHOWS you the AsAc.

A lot of you guys make 300$ seem like pocket change, im pretty sure dats clouding some ppl's vision.

300$ is 1.5 buy-ins, and I can give u an anecdote for each time I lost 1.5 buyins in one hand, very rare.

I can see the obvious argument why this is a push, which is why I posted such a tuff decision.