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109 turbo final table hand

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  1. martingle martingle is offline

    Brisbane
    Australia

    Posts: 5
    Joined: Sep 07

    Oct 19th, 2010 (10/19/2010 2:23am)

    *********** # 148 **************
    pokerstars Game #51278805205: Tournament #336010181, $100+$9 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXVI (2500/5000) - 2010/10/18 21:17:09 AEST [2010/10/18 6:17:09 ET]
    Table '336010181 16' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
    Seat 2: martingle (26068 in chips)
    Seat 3: 19-05-67 (109732 in chips)
    Seat 4: Brackeline (97026 in chips)
    Seat 5: Djanik8 (42097 in chips)
    Seat 6: gerd85 (49574 in chips)
    Seat 7: scarygary21 (101181 in chips)
    Seat 8: tsunamischa (30322 in chips)
    martingle: posts the ante 625
    19-05-67: posts the ante 625
    Brackeline: posts the ante 625
    Djanik8: posts the ante 625
    gerd85: posts the ante 625
    scarygary21: posts the ante 625
    tsunamischa: posts the ante 625
    tsunamischa: posts small blind 2500
    martingle: posts big blind 5000
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to martingle [Qc As]
    19-05-67 has timed out while disconnected
    19-05-67: folds
    Brackeline: folds
    Djanik8: folds
    gerd85: raises 43949 to 48949 and is all-in - VILLAIN 1
    scarygary21: calls 48949 - VILLAIN 2
    tsunamischa: folds
    martingle: TANKS FOR AGES, then folds
    *** FLOP *** [9s 9h Qh]
    *** TURN *** [9s 9h Qh] [3d]
    *** RIVER *** [9s 9h Qh 3d] [6c]
    *** SHOW DOWN ***

    There were seven people left, current prize $798.00, next bracket $1026.00 (109 buy in). So there is a good chance I can make more money by folding, I figure at best I am flipping, but not sure. I have around 4 chips, villain 1 in has around 5, and villain 2 has us covered. My read was that villain 1 is loosey goosey, villain 2 looks very strong to me.

    Now that I have put it on paper it seems to me I was too tight.....esp. considering blinds and relative stack sizes….. I open the floor to your counsel, o wise p5erzzzz
  2. Pipes06 Pipes06 is offline

    United Kingdom

    Posts: 321
    Joined: Oct 07

    Oct 19th, 2010 (10/19/2010 2:55am) in reply to martingle

    Pretty sure a call is bad given your stack size.
     
  3. grapsfan grapsfan is offline Head Curmudgeon

    Rosemount, MN
    United States

    Posts: 7,980
    Joined: Jun 05

    Oct 19th, 2010 (10/19/2010 3:05am) in reply to Pipes06

    You're not playing to win an extra $200. You're playing to win 6 Grand. You need chips to win the tournament.

    I am calling ALL DAY here.
     
  4. cdeezy cdeezy is offline

    Tampa, FL
    United States

    Posts: 2
    Joined: May 10

    Oct 19th, 2010 (10/19/2010 3:23am) in reply to grapsfan

    call call call call call call call and.... call
     
  5. martingle martingle is offline

    Brisbane
    Australia

    Posts: 5
    Joined: Sep 07

    Oct 19th, 2010 (10/19/2010 4:43am) in reply to Pipes06

    Pipes... a little more explanation? dont really understand what you saying
    Thread Starter
  6. Gotskillz Gotskillz is offline

    Kitchener
    Canada

    Posts: 1,272
    Joined: Mar 05

    Oct 19th, 2010 (10/19/2010 5:50pm) in reply to martingle

    I fold here. ICM makes this a fold all day. If scarygary busts gerd here you move up a payjump. AQ is not going to look good against 2 hands and your not going to triple up enough of the time to make up for busting here the majority of the time, when you coulda moved up a spot.
    550 
  7. Pipes06 Pipes06 is offline

    United Kingdom

    Posts: 321
    Joined: Oct 07

    Oct 20th, 2010 (10/20/2010 4:24pm) in reply to Gotskillz

     
    Originally Posted by Gotskillz View Post

    I fold here. ICM makes this a fold all day. If scarygary busts gerd here you move up a payjump. AQ is not going to look good against 2 hands and your not going to triple up enough of the time to make up for busting here the majority of the time, when you coulda moved up a spot.

    this is what i meant.
     
  8. goonercam goonercam is offline

    Posts: 6
    Joined: Oct 10

    Oct 24th, 2010 (10/24/2010 11:51am) in reply to Pipes06

    fold ainec
  9. shawry5 shawry5 is offline

    Perth
    Australia

    Posts: 26
    Joined: Oct 08

    Oct 25th, 2010 (10/25/2010 3:35am) in reply to goonercam

    Im a complete nit and I would say I call. Play to win, dont worry about pay bump. you have 5 bb, this is a gamble u must take imo
     1
  10. grapsfan grapsfan is offline Head Curmudgeon

    Rosemount, MN
    United States

    Posts: 7,980
    Joined: Jun 05

    Oct 25th, 2010 (10/25/2010 2:34pm) in reply to Gotskillz

     
    Originally Posted by Gotskillz View Post

    I fold here. ICM makes this a fold all day. If scarygary busts gerd here you move up a payjump. AQ is not going to look good against 2 hands and your not going to triple up enough of the time to make up for busting here the majority of the time, when you coulda moved up a spot.

    I chewed on this one for awhile...and I thought that ICM would actually say this is a call. It's a call that might be a little bit -cEV, but HUGELY $EV if you win. So I ran it through the HoldemResources.net ICM calculator. I had to chop off the 6th place incremental pay (does anyone know of a free calculator that does more than 5 places paid?), which probably skews the ranges a little bit but not all that much.

    But here's what it says:

    The cutoff should be shoving with the top 33.0% of hands { 22+ Ax+ K4s+ K9o+ Q8s+ QTo+ J8s+ JTo T8s+ 97s+ 87 }
    The button should be calling with the top 8.7% of hands { 77+ A9s+ ATo+ }

    ...and...

    If the button calls, the BB should be overcalling with the top 4.2% of hands { 99+ AQs+ AKo }

    So I guess I'm not surprised. In a spot where some people say it's a clear call, and some say it's a clear fold - it's right on the border.
    Edited By: grapsfan Oct 25th, 2010 at 02:34 PM
     
  11. ibluffheaps ibluffheaps is offline

    Australia

    Posts: 786
    Joined: Aug 07

    Oct 25th, 2010 (10/25/2010 4:22pm) in reply to grapsfan

    isnt the call here an easy winner considering we are losing our FE this round?

    even if its v slightly -cev, its going to open up more spots later on and seeing as shoving very marginally for preservation of FE this round is nearly mandatory pretty sure the call is a clear winner.,
    205 1
  12. martingle martingle is offline

    Brisbane
    Australia

    Posts: 5
    Joined: Sep 07

    Oct 26th, 2010 (10/26/2010 1:33am) in reply to ibluffheaps

    thanks for the replies everyone much appreciated. - i'm just glad that i'm not the only one puzzled by this hand!

    For everyones interest:

    VILLAIN 1 : (opener) K 10 (i know, right)
    VILLAIN 2 : J J

    I am still undecided myself, if i had to do it again i think i would call. I just didnt have enough chips to fold AQ there.... like ibluff mentioned, i lose my FE ( not that i had much to start with) and calling here gives me a chance to take the whole thing down, but folding leaves me to have to get lucky multiple times to get to the same amount i could get to with this one hand. (i.e. it was a decent pot)
    I think i am not behind (flipping maybe, but not THAT far behind) enough of the time to make it worthwhile.
    Incidentally i opened the next hand all in with A9 suited and got chopped by tens.

    Thanks again for your input everyone!
    Thread Starter
  13. Lenail Lenail is offline

    Vevey
    Switzerland

    Posts: 1,042
    Joined: Apr 08

    Oct 26th, 2010 (10/26/2010 12:28pm) in reply to martingle

    All speaks from itselfs and the comments are interestings, ths for the comments of the regs : ICM is boarderline but we play tourneys FTW !!! Shhhhhhhip it as Bax like to say ....
  14. Pipes06 Pipes06 is offline

    United Kingdom

    Posts: 321
    Joined: Oct 07

    Oct 26th, 2010 (10/26/2010 4:32pm) in reply to Lenail

    I still think its a fold fwiw
     
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