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12 180 - What's your shove range here?

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  1. spectrefax spectrefax is offline

    Henderson, NV
    United States

    Posts: 1,184
    Joined: Jan 07

    Feb 5th, 2011 (2/5/2011 6:52pm)

    Second hand at the FT. No real reads on any of the players.

    ***** Hand History for Game 57156882711 ***** (Poker stars)
    Tourney Hand NL Texas Hold'em - Saturday, February 05, 11:03:57 ET 2011
    Table 361257187 19 (Real Money)
    Seat 7 is the button
    Seat 1: Apple_OK ( $38262.00 USD )
    Seat 2: Bonvanos ( $37784.00 USD )
    Seat 3: jan614 ( $11850.00 USD )
    Seat 4: GarriMurRRrr ( $46484.00 USD )
    Seat 5: steeldag ( $29336.00 USD )
    Seat 6: spectrefax ( $28353.00 USD )
    Seat 7: heffs976 ( $21755.00 USD )
    Seat 8: Pierek87 ( $31888.00 USD )
    Seat 9: Wasp_2010 ( $24288.00 USD )
    Apple_OK posts ante of [$200.00 USD].
    Bonvanos posts ante of [$200.00 USD].
    jan614 posts ante of [$200.00 USD].
    GarriMurRRrr posts ante of [$200.00 USD].
    steeldag posts ante of [$200.00 USD].
    spectrefax posts ante of [$200.00 USD].
    heffs976 posts ante of [$200.00 USD].
    Pierek87 posts ante of [$200.00 USD].
    Wasp_2010 posts ante of [$200.00 USD].
    Pierek87 posts small blind [$1000.00 USD].
    Wasp_2010 posts big blind [$2000.00 USD].
    ** Dealing down cards **
    Dealt to spectrefax [ As 3h ]
    Apple_OK folds
    Bonvanos folds
    jan614 folds
    GarriMurRRrr folds
    steeldag folds
    spectrefax raises [$28153.00 USD]

    Results in white:
    heffs976 calls [$21555.00 USD]
    Pierek87 folds
    Wasp_2010 folds
    spectrefax wins $6598.00 USD
    ** Dealing Flop ** [ Qc, Ks, Th ]
    ** Dealing Turn ** [ 4d ]
    ** Dealing River ** [ 9s ]
    spectrefax shows [As, 3h ]
    heffs976 shows [Qs, Qd ]
    heffs976 wins $47910.00 USD from main pot
    Edited By: spectrefax Feb 5th, 2011 at 06:53 PM
     
  2. premierw premierw is offline

    Posts: 27
    Joined: Jan 11

    Feb 5th, 2011 (2/5/2011 6:59pm) in reply to spectrefax

    Just a cooler. You're shoving 15bbs through 3 people, sometimes they'll wake up with a hand. I shove a lot wider here.
  3. spectrefax spectrefax is offline

    Henderson, NV
    United States

    Posts: 1,184
    Joined: Jan 07

    Feb 5th, 2011 (2/5/2011 7:01pm) in reply to premierw

     
    Originally Posted by premierw View Post

    Just a cooler. You're shoving 15bbs through 3 people, sometimes they'll wake up with a hand. I shove a lot wider here.

    I know there's a way to calculate how profitable the shove is but I'm too lasy to type up an excel sheet to calculate it right now.

    Whats the weakest you're going with here?
    Edited By: spectrefax Feb 5th, 2011 at 07:02 PM
     
    Thread Starter
  4. moe86 moe86 is offline

    Milton, MA
    United States

    Posts: 1,147
    Joined: Dec 05

    Feb 5th, 2011 (2/5/2011 7:08pm) in reply to spectrefax

    not opening shiping Axos (A9 or AT os diff story) here into 3plyrs who can all kill r stack. I prob like shipping suited A's KQ 55+, i think i am trying to tighten up my ranges in spots like this. If the remaining plyrs were shorter i would shove a lil lighter. I guess n argurment can b made that they will prob b calling off tighter given that it is one of the first few hands of the FT. Def interested in hearing some responses here.

    I just feel 14bbs A3os is just a lil too wide for me here busting with this stack so early has to b pretty marginal.
     
  5. animallovinhick animallovinhick is offline

    Homer Glen, IL
    United States

    Posts: 67
    Joined: Feb 11

    Feb 5th, 2011 (2/5/2011 7:19pm) in reply to moe86

    I like the shove. You have to play to win. I would be interested in seeing the actual numbers (I'm too lazy too), but I don't think you can go wrong with shoving here. Many people will be trying to just move up the money ladder and tighten up in this spot.
  6. shanetrain22 shanetrain22 is offline

    Posts: 5,179
    Joined: Oct 06

    Feb 5th, 2011 (2/5/2011 7:30pm) in reply to spectrefax

     
    Originally Posted by spectrefax View Post

    I know there's a way to calculate how profitable the shove is but I'm too lasy to type up an excel sheet to calculate it right now.

    Whats the weakest you're going with here?

    lol
     1
  7. Petoria Petoria is offline

    South Bend, IN
    United States

    Posts: 343
    Joined: May 05

    Feb 5th, 2011 (2/5/2011 8:17pm) in reply to shanetrain22

    If we put the opponents calling range at A8o+ A7s+, KJs+, KQo, and 55+ which represents about 15% of total hands then we are about a 2:1 dog against the range.

    If we were up against only one opponent our cEV=+2500 chips with the shove

    But we must consider the probability that at least one of the 3 remaining opponents has this range which is

    1-P(none have it) = 1-(.85)^3=1-.614125=.385875

    We can haggle about the different ranges that button might have vs. SB or BB, but this isnt a terrible approximation

    Using this last number we find that our cEV = -550ish

    If you want to tweak the range a bit, I'd be more than happy to run the cEV numbers. These are also rough approximations since i'm having to basically do this by hand with assistance from pokerstove. It may be closer to a shove in the final calculation, but i'm confident that it's at least marginally -cEV.
    Edited By: Petoria Feb 5th, 2011 at 08:24 PM
  8. rayfox111 rayfox111 is offline

    United Kingdom

    Posts: 833
    Joined: Mar 09

    Feb 5th, 2011 (2/5/2011 8:21pm) in reply to shanetrain22

    Dont think Id be wild about shoving with A3o.
    As for as I can make out on stove, your on the cut off point for a shove, not good not bad.
    Youve plenty FE, but not in great shape if you get a call.
    Youve 14bb, theres 3 shorter stacks than you, and youll see 5 more hands before the blinds hit you again.
    Im a shade nitty & Id prob fold.
  9. spectrefax spectrefax is offline

    Henderson, NV
    United States

    Posts: 1,184
    Joined: Jan 07

    Feb 5th, 2011 (2/5/2011 8:30pm) in reply to Petoria

     
    Originally Posted by Petoria View Post

    If we put the opponents calling range at A8o+ A7s+, KJs+, KQo, and 55+ which represents about 15% of total hands then we are about a 2:1 dog against the range.

    If we were up against only one opponent our cEV=+2500 chips with the shove

    But we must consider the probability that at least one of the 3 remaining opponents has this range which is

    1-P(none have it) = 1-(.85)^3=1-.614125=.385875

    We can haggle about the different ranges that button might have vs. SB or BB, but this isnt a terrible approximation

    Using this last number we find that our cEV = -550ish

    If you want to tweak the range a bit, I'd be more than happy to run the cEV numbers. These are also rough approximations since i'm having to basically do this by hand with assistance from pokerstove. It may be closer to a shove in the final calculation, but i'm confident that it's at least marginally -cEV.

    Thanks for that. Had a feeling in my gut that I had a little too many chips to shove A3 there...bleh. Only thing that leaned me toward the shove was I figured their calling ranges would be a little tighter than normal due to it being one of the first hands of the FT. Thanks for the numbers.
    Edited By: spectrefax Feb 5th, 2011 at 08:31 PM
     
    Thread Starter
  10. Petoria Petoria is offline

    South Bend, IN
    United States

    Posts: 343
    Joined: May 05

    Feb 6th, 2011 (2/6/2011 7:56am) in reply to spectrefax

     
    Originally Posted by spectrefax View Post

    Thanks for that. Had a feeling in my gut that I had a little too many chips to shove A3 there...bleh. Only thing that leaned me toward the shove was I figured their calling ranges would be a little tighter than normal due to it being one of the first hands of the FT. Thanks for the numbers.

    Yeah, no problem. I'm a math major and running numbers is kind of what I do.

    I was honestly surprised the result was as close as it was. I've been running more numbers recently and it has helped me to figure some things out. I was playing things way too tight actually.

    Seeing how close this run and other runs are gave me a much better idea of shoving ranges in similar spots. So thank you also for posting this interesting hand.
  11. BenJamin327 BenJamin327 is offline

    Rapid City, SD
    United States

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    Feb 6th, 2011 (2/6/2011 10:43am) in reply to Petoria

    neutral $ev in my opinion, either or
  12. KingBustYou KingBustYou is offline

    Antwerp
    Belgium

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    Feb 6th, 2011 (2/6/2011 2:27pm) in reply to BenJamin327

    seeing that's it's pretty tight whether to shove or not makes it a fold imo. with the high variance in these $12 180s you dont make FT's that often enough that you cant take these spots too lightly. if you make a FT you really have to aim for top 3 spots to have a +roi or you'll get killed playing these. everyones shallow at the ft so 14bb is still a pretty good stack to have and you can survive another ordbit folding if you have to and stealing the blinds once just gets you back in the hunt. i'd prolly prefer shoving mid SCs then ace rag in this spot if i were to shove a hand
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