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15 Turbo...is this a push?

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  1. rivverkiller rivverkiller is offline

    White Rock
    Canada

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    May 29th, 2007 (5/29/2007 8:18pm)

    Tight table, also a very solid table. Most players were winning players. What do you do here? Raise? Call? Push? FOLD???? I actually had to take time with this hand.

    pokerstars Game #10172958297: Tournament #51559006, $15+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level VII (100/200) - 2007/05/29 - 20:16:29 (ET)
    Table '51559006 1' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
    Seat 2: mkahn2 (2685 in chips)
    Seat 4: JPeso41 (3650 in chips)
    Seat 7: bbmfic (2930 in chips)
    Seat 8: matkinson (2225 in chips)
    Seat 9: carniplant (2010 in chips)
    mkahn2: posts the ante 25
    JPeso41: posts the ante 25
    bbmfic: posts the ante 25
    matkinson: posts the ante 25
    carniplant: posts the ante 25
    JPeso41: posts small blind 100
    bbmfic: posts big blind 200
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to matkinson [Jh Ad]
    matkinson: ???
     
  2. NetFan44 NetFan44 is offline

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    May 29th, 2007 (5/29/2007 8:21pm) in reply to rivverkiller

    this is a fold mat unless the table is just full of rocks.
    you could also raise to 550 and fold to a shove but i'd rather just open fold

    edit - didn't realize it was 5 handed but still your stack is really awkward for a shove here
  3. sean614 sean614 is offline

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    May 29th, 2007 (5/29/2007 8:43pm) in reply to rivverkiller

    I would either make it 600 and push any flop if called and fold if reraised preflop. Or just push all in right now. I think folding AJ 5 handed is to weak of a play espically in a turbo which you have to be willing to gamble more. What did you wind up doing?
  4. allaboutheu allaboutheu is offline

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    May 29th, 2007 (5/29/2007 8:47pm) in reply to sean614

    Fold preflop any raise is going to leave w/ you under 10bb if you cbet and don't win youll probably down near 5bb and pushing a lot of trash. I shove this on the button and probably co (didn't read the stacks so not sure) but any earlier then that I fold this.
  5. xDragonFire xDragonFire is offline

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    May 29th, 2007 (5/29/2007 8:51pm) in reply to rivverkiller

    its close but i think id shove. id run it if i had the icm calc with me. folding AT though.

    raise/fold line is very bad.
  6. MetalGod MetalGod is offline

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    May 29th, 2007 (5/29/2007 9:00pm) in reply to rivverkiller

    I wouldn't fold this here...IMO AJ is too strong to open fold preflop 5 handed. A lot of people are going to say how it's near the bubble, but lets look at the stacks...I think it's better to try and push in these scenarios and go for getting into the money with a healthy stack rather than waiting around for an absolute monster hoping it comes before you get blinded down too much. Also, given that this is a turbo you really don't have the time to wait around.

    Either raise + shove flop or open shove.
  7. rivverkiller rivverkiller is offline

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    May 30th, 2007 (5/30/2007 3:56pm) in reply to MetalGod

    Lol, 5 replies and they were all different. I thought about raising to 500 and pushing the flop unless it was VERY scary. I felt it was too strong of a hand to fold preflop, however folding was definately on my mind...any more replies??? I thought this was a really interesting situation...
     
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  8. utterczar utterczar is offline

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    May 30th, 2007 (5/30/2007 4:08pm) in reply to rivverkiller

    With a solid table and 5-handed, I do not think a raise to 500-600 is a good play. If someone comes over the top of you, you have to fold. If someone calls, they likely could have AQ or AK and if the flop brings an A and you insta shove you are done. If you miss the flop and shove and they have a PP and call, you're done again.

    I think the play is either to open push or fold.

    I would probably push in that situation, but without seeing the kind of calls the other players had made, it's up in the air as to whether it's a good play versus folding. With your stack and the other stacks on the table you have plenty of fold equity in your corner.

    gl
     
  9. mkahn2 mkahn2 is offline

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    May 30th, 2007 (5/30/2007 4:35pm) in reply to utterczar

    agree w/ no raise to 500-600, especially UTG, if you say table was strong (obv w/ me there) then noone will flat call you so your not going to win by continuation bet if you miss. The only hands i can see flat calling is a trap(again unless theres donks at the table). I also find these spots: 5-6 handed UTG w/ 10ish BB and marginal holdings, very tricky.
  10. pariah pariah is offline

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    May 30th, 2007 (5/30/2007 5:01pm) in reply to rivverkiller

    I can't find any sort of realistic range on your opponents that doesn't make this a shove. Especially considering you said they were tight, solid, winning players. With an M of 5 it's go time. This, by the way, is an interesting hand to run because it demonstrates how your EV changes depending on their range -- make it wide and you're getting called a lot, but by hands that AJo fairs fine against. As you tighten up their range, you're only getting called by hands that beat you BUT they're not going to have those hands often enough so that pushing is justified. It's the middle ground here that gets tricky but even in that range it's still +EV albeit a lot closer. So: aaaawww eeeen babay.
  11. rivverkiller rivverkiller is offline

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    May 30th, 2007 (5/30/2007 5:19pm) in reply to mkahn2

    Lol, that's how lost I was, I hate these situations as ICM isn't a strong suit of mine. I was looking to take it down preflop with a 500 raise, 1700 chips is still workable, however not desirable. Also I figuired a 500 raise from UTG might show more strength then a shove.

    Obviously I ended up shoving and ran into AK, but that is besides the point. As stated above this is a tricky spot. I don't think it helped that I almost went into my time bank.
     
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  12. xDragonFire xDragonFire is offline

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    May 30th, 2007 (5/30/2007 6:30pm) in reply to rivverkiller

    ok i ran it in an ICM calc. assuming that each playwe is tight and solid, only calling 10% of hands, its a fold. AJs is a shove though, as is AQo. was pretty close. but it says its a shove if youre willing to take smaller edges.
  13. pariah pariah is offline

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    May 30th, 2007 (5/30/2007 10:22pm) in reply to xDragonFire

    O rly?

    SNGPT says pushing is +0.5%... in a turbo SNG you cannot be passing up an edge like that.

    Furthermore, 10% is 77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo --- "tight solid winning players" don't call 11 BB UTG shoves with QTs, sorry. Big stack is SB, give him 10-12% and others 7-9% and it's still a shove. As you move into the really low ranges (calling with only top 6% or better) and it just gets more and more +EV.
  14. xDragonFire xDragonFire is offline

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    May 30th, 2007 (5/30/2007 10:30pm) in reply to pariah

    no thats not 10%. 10% is 55+, ATo+, A8s+, KQs

    youre doing something wrong. my pushing edsge putting the big stack at 10% and the others at 8% is .34% difference, and the edge SnGWiz gives with your stack is .40%. as i said, if youre willing to take smaller edges then its a push
  15. pariah pariah is offline

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    May 30th, 2007 (5/30/2007 11:06pm) in reply to xDragonFire

    There is nothing to "do" wrong. It's just typing in numbers. My numbers are pasted straight from PokerStove & SNGPT. If SNG Wizard says something different then I can't help that. If you put their calling range as 55+, ATo+, A8s+, KQs (still too wide IMHO) then pushing gives you $0.65 more equity than folding. This is not a small edge and is pretty standard. Especially considering it's a turbo, there's no chance in hell I'm passing up +0.5%.
  16. xDragonFire xDragonFire is offline

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    May 30th, 2007 (5/30/2007 11:10pm) in reply to pariah

    well theres something completely different about it then, cause im getting different results. and in a 16 that range isnt too wide
  17. pariah pariah is offline

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    May 31st, 2007 (5/31/2007 12:50am) in reply to xDragonFire

    Attack it from other side then and calculate calling ranges for each player assuming UTG did shove. Since there's all this question about whether AJo is a good shove, assume that is pretty much the bottom of his range. Maybe put in something like 55+,ATs+,AJo+ or throw in a KQs for good measure. Tweak it slightly either way and you'll still be very hard pressed to find them profitably calling with a range wider than 5%. As a side note, perhaps counter-intuitively, it's the big blind who has the widest calling range -- not the big stack (SB). The BB can open up slightly because a) nobody has to act behind him b) he's already got the most invested and c) he's 2nd in chips and has UTG covered.
  18. Jennifear Jennifear is offline

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    May 31st, 2007 (5/31/2007 12:50am) in reply to rivverkiller

    It's a shove. Open push AJ here, because of hand strength. It gives you the best chance to win.
  19. truesyalose truesyalose is offline

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    May 31st, 2007 (5/31/2007 4:18am) in reply to rivverkiller

    i minraise, fold if someone pushes, reevaluate on flop if someone calls. The minraise looks so strong in these spots as most people only do it with monsters or air so you pick up the blinds w/o much risk most of the time imo. most of the time if you do get a flat call pre it is one of the blinds and then you have position on them rest of hand.
    1
  20. beck_AA beck_AA is offline

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    May 31st, 2007 (5/31/2007 8:53am) in reply to truesyalose

    its an abso. fold everytime...BUT its A MUST SHOVE hand if you are 3rd+ to act....aka if you are UTG or UTG+1 fold, any other position, your all in if it opens to you.
     
  21. BomboKlaat BomboKlaat is offline

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    May 31st, 2007 (5/31/2007 9:27am) in reply to rivverkiller

    This is shove or fold only. Any raise is a spew. I prolly shove (depending on recent dynamics) 75% and fold 25%. I am never going to 3x with this hand in this spot. I think the minr opinion someone mentioned is interesting and can work in this spot for some players. I just don't minr, so shove or fold.
  22. TrickyClicky TrickyClicky is offline

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    May 31st, 2007 (5/31/2007 11:38am) in reply to BomboKlaat

    I would fold here. Don't get romanced by the AJ. Pick a better spot to shove. Why race with a weak drawing hand?

    Just my humble opinion.

    --Tricky
  23. duke186 duke186 is offline

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    May 31st, 2007 (5/31/2007 11:45am) in reply to Jennifear

    What if we are 6 or 7 handed?
  24. BomboKlaat BomboKlaat is offline

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    May 31st, 2007 (5/31/2007 1:15pm) in reply to TrickyClicky

    Do you open fold AJ from the hijack at a full table? Cause thats what you are doing if you fold AJ UTG 5 handed. The guy has 11 bb's. Open fold is weaksauce.
  25. TrickyClicky TrickyClicky is offline

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    May 31st, 2007 (5/31/2007 1:58pm) in reply to BomboKlaat

    All Day Baby! Sooooooooted also btw.
  26. MetalGod MetalGod is offline

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    May 31st, 2007 (5/31/2007 3:23pm) in reply to rivverkiller

    Lots of interesting responses here. Whoever said min raise...I think that's probably about the worst thing you could possibly do. Pricing in the big blind to call with any 2 to see a flop...not the way to go. All in or fold are the best choices here.
  27. Fife19 Fife19 is offline

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    May 31st, 2007 (5/31/2007 3:27pm) in reply to MetalGod

    Shove please.
  28. my11freakinGEEZ my11freakinGEEZ is offline

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    May 31st, 2007 (5/31/2007 5:09pm) in reply to rivverkiller

    Will everyone please turn there books to page 162 (Harrington on Holdem: Volume 2). I was rereading this book while sitting on the caddy bench and realized it is a great explanation of what ICM is and how it works.

    Although the situation on this page is a bit different from the one shown by the OP, this is the type of analysis that needs to be done to determine a clear cut answer.
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