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$16 Turbo bubble question

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  1. Skinwalker Skinwalker is offline

    United Kingdom

    Posts: 85
    Joined: Sep 05

    Feb 20th, 2008 (2/20/2008 10:00am)

    My opponent is a reg ranked in the top 10 on Sharkscopes leaderboard. Simple question: Is his call +ev here, and why? It seemed like an auto fold to me with the shorty there, so what am i missing? Thanks guys.

    pokerstars Game #15408966201: Tournament #77998541, $15+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (300/600) - 2008/02/19 - 20:56:32 (ET)
    Table '77998541 1' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
    Seat 1: Skinwalker (8195 in chips)
    Seat 2: loonatwok (2260 in chips)
    Seat 3: Brendo_K (2725 in chips)
    Seat 8: kebab78 (320 in chips)
    Skinwalker: posts the ante 50
    loonatwok: posts the ante 50
    Brendo_K: posts the ante 50
    kebab78: posts the ante 50
    Skinwalker: posts small blind 300
    loonatwok: posts big blind 600
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to Skinwalker [Ah 5h]
    Brendo_K: folds
    kebab78: folds
    Skinwalker: raises 7545 to 8145 and is all-in
    loonatwok: calls 1610 and is all-in
    *** FLOP *** [7c Qs 3d]
    *** TURN *** [7c Qs 3d] [Js]
    *** RIVER *** [7c Qs 3d Js] [Qh]
    *** SHOW DOWN ***
    Skinwalker: shows [Ah 5h] (a pair of Queens)
    loonatwok: shows [Ac 8c] (a pair of Queens - Ace+Jack+Eight kicker)
    loonatwok collected 4620 from pot
    Skinwalker said, "wow"
  2. thefuture021 thefuture021 is offline

    Dallas, TX
    United States

    Posts: 8,797
    Joined: Apr 06

    Feb 20th, 2008 (2/20/2008 10:14am) in reply to Skinwalker

    If he's a top 10 player, he's not playing to cash, he's playing to win. He thinks he's ahead and he's calling, nuff said.
  3. GLMM GLMM is offline

    Whitman, MA
    United States

    Posts: 1,240
    Joined: May 06

    Feb 20th, 2008 (2/20/2008 10:59am) in reply to Skinwalker

    After reading the hh over a couple times,his call is great. The blinds are huge here,and even if shorty bubbles he's hanging on for third.

    He knows he has your range crushed,and sees this as an oppurtunity to get deeper into the money.

    I may be a pussy and fold to cash,but where he's a ranked s&g player,he prolly has no problem finishing 4th in a situation where's he's pretty sure he's ahead.
  4. sotti sotti is offline

    Portland, OR
    United States

    Posts: 1,342
    Joined: Sep 06

    Feb 20th, 2008 (2/20/2008 11:12am) in reply to Skinwalker

    Jennifear recently sent me a link to this ICM calculator http://www.holdemresources.net/hr/sn...alculator.html

    This basically says it was a bad call on his part. I mean he looses 2.3% equity by folding and by calling he's risking everything on a 70% roll. I mean that's the best he can hope for is what you rolled over.

    We all have those momments when frustrated and we say I know I'm ahead I need to call. Granted I've been running bad for like 3 weeks so my judgement is crap right now.
  5. AceStack AceStack is offline

    NY
    United States

    Posts: 571
    Joined: Jan 07

    Feb 20th, 2008 (2/20/2008 2:03pm) in reply to Skinwalker

    mmmm. its all player dependant. If he really wants to cash he'll fold. If he doesn't care about the risk hes insta calling. Since your big stack and obv stealing I would probably call too, because I'd think it was a race and if i lose I can still outlast the 300 chip player for 3rd. By him calling this and winning he's got a good shot at 2nd place now 2.
  6. Cortz Cortz is offline

    Youngtown, AZ
    United States

    Posts: 6,736
    Joined: Dec 05

    Feb 20th, 2008 (2/20/2008 3:55pm) in reply to Skinwalker

    i actually dont like his call...but who am i
  7. Bigchip79 Bigchip79 is offline

    Posts: 1,454
    Joined: Sep 06

    Feb 20th, 2008 (2/20/2008 4:57pm) in reply to Skinwalker

    i woulda call too bcuz he's ahead of ur range...and if he fold he has no f.e to shove l8ter on
  8. Jennifear Jennifear is offline

    Niagara Falls, NY
    United States

    Posts: 10,222
    Joined: Nov 05

    Feb 21st, 2008 (2/21/2008 2:01am) in reply to Skinwalker

    If he knows you are shoving any two, he should be calling with 99+ only. He needs a hand that beats you about 71-72% of the time, and A8s isn't even in the ballpark. He should be instafolding AK.
  9. Skinwalker Skinwalker is offline

    United Kingdom

    Posts: 85
    Joined: Sep 05

    Feb 21st, 2008 (2/21/2008 7:10am) in reply to Jennifear

    Thanks Jenn that's pretty much what I thought. Loonatwok's results speak for themselves, and as I've been trying to increase my # of top two finishes I was interested as to whether any of the other good "closers" call here. Thanks to everyone for their replies.

    Andy
    Thread Starter
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