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2 questions on this hand

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  1. born2winit born2winit is offline

    VT
    United States

    Posts: 205
    Joined: Mar 07

    Sep 27th, 2007 (9/27/2007 4:11pm)

    pokerstars Game #12301607132: Tournament #61825944, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'emNo Limit - Level VIII (200/400) - 2007/09/27 - 14:52:22 (ET)
    Table '61825944 275' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
    Seat 1: peppilouimig (7319 in chips)
    Seat 2: Lightmaker (2995 in chips) is sitting out
    Seat 3: dkjesper (5400 in chips)
    Seat 4: civas (2554 in chips)
    Seat 5: MaRyJoAnNa00 (29111 in chips)
    Seat 6: Stevinchy (17345 in chips)
    Seat 7: FatboyShrek (4273 in chips)
    Seat 8: CLARKLOVELY (21740 in chips)
    Seat 9: born2winit (24190 in chips)
    peppilouimig: posts the ante 25
    Lightmaker: posts the ante 25
    dkjesper: posts the ante 25
    civas: posts the ante 25
    MaRyJoAnNa00: posts the ante 25
    Stevinchy: posts the ante 25
    FatboyShrek: posts the ante 25
    CLARKLOVELY: posts the ante 25
    born2winit: posts the ante 25
    FatboyShrek: posts small blind 200
    CLARKLOVELY: posts big blind 400
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to born2winit [8c 8s]
    born2winit: calls 400
    peppilouimig: folds
    Lightmaker: folds
    dkjesper: calls 400
    civas: folds
    born2winit said, "im mucking nines vs. you every time"
    MaRyJoAnNa00: raises 1600 to 2000
    Stevinchy: folds
    FatboyShrek: folds
    CLARKLOVELY: calls 1600
    born2winit: calls 1600
    dkjesper: folds
    *** FLOP *** [5h 7h 6d]
    CLARKLOVELY: checks
    born2winit: bets 3600

    two questions:

    1. was it a mistake to lead out on this flop for 3600? if so, what is the better play?

    2. if MaRyJoAnNa pushes all in, do you gamble and call?
    a. if you fold, you have $18,590 chips... more than 2x avg. of about $8,500 (600 remain)
    b. if you call and lose, you have $0 and bust
    c. if you call and win, you have a GIGANTIC stack of $47,605
    d. pot odds are about 1.6 to 1.. meaning you have to win about 39% to break even (is my math right here??)
    e. you are about 36% vs. an overpair; 76% vs. AK; 31% vs. set.
    f. if villian has set 5% of time; overpair 85% and AK 10%, then you are about 39% to win.
    g. so, basically this is a break even play....

    do you gamble for the HUGE stack or fold and play with your still pretty big stack???
  2. threebanger threebanger is offline

    United States

    Posts: 5,094
    Joined: Sep 07

    Sep 27th, 2007 (9/27/2007 4:42pm) in reply to born2winit

    Why aren't you folding to the preflop raise? That's what I would do, but as played I would go all the way with the hand after the flop. And lose.
  3. F_Grasso F_Grasso is offline

    NY
    United States

    Posts: 129
    Joined: Sep 07

    Sep 27th, 2007 (9/27/2007 5:15pm) in reply to threebanger

    he has a decent wired pair. he is calling 1600 to win 6000. With middle pair, i would say that is a good call. He flops an OVER PAIR and an open ended straight draw. i would say you played this correct, im interested to see how it ended up. I believe he had AQ or AJ possibly even A10, he made a pre-flop raise that makes me think that he has either two big cards or a smaller PP, IMO thats what i put him on in this spot. Good raise, still interested in what happened.

    Now, If he pushes over the top or makes a significant raise to your bet, im seeing one more card (dont fold to a double, i feel that shows weakness here anyways).

    i believe your ahead in this hand, but it wouldnt be the first time i was wrong

    he could be slowplaying a huge pair but i doubt it.
  4. born2winit born2winit is offline

    VT
    United States

    Posts: 205
    Joined: Mar 07

    Sep 27th, 2007 (9/27/2007 5:19pm) in reply to F_Grasso

    he pushed all in on the flop with JJ.

    i called and missed and i busted out.

    his flop push was such an overbet.. obviously he was protecting a weak over pair.. but i though it might have been what a hand like AK would do... oh well
    Thread Starter
  5. pnkranger pnkranger is offline

    Norman, OK
    United States

    Posts: 1,129
    Joined: Feb 05

    Sep 27th, 2007 (9/27/2007 5:25pm) in reply to F_Grasso

    With stacks as deep as they are, I check so I can put in a big ck raise. That flop is very unlikely to have helped either of your opponents and even if one of them turns over 77, you've still got 10 outs.

    I don't think you want to show this hand down without improving, so a check raise gets some chips in the pot and gives you massive fold equity + 10 outs.

    So: pot 7K. OR puts in 4500 raise, and you push for 20K over the top and add 11K to your stack without showdown.
  6. thebawler thebawler is offline

    Posts: 329
    Joined: Jan 07

    Sep 27th, 2007 (9/27/2007 5:29pm) in reply to born2winit

    never limp never call
  7. lvkid7 lvkid7 is offline

    Las Vegas, NV
    United States

    Posts: 185
    Joined: Feb 06

    Sep 27th, 2007 (9/27/2007 5:31pm) in reply to pnkranger

    In my experience, most $5.50 players are not folding JJ there to a c/r anyway, so better play I'd say, but same result in this case.
  8. pnkranger pnkranger is offline

    Norman, OK
    United States

    Posts: 1,129
    Joined: Feb 05

    Sep 27th, 2007 (9/27/2007 5:32pm) in reply to lvkid7

    You are right. Glazed over...thought it was $50 + 5
  9. warden warden is offline

    Tucson, AZ
    United States

    Posts: 15,530
    Joined: Apr 06

    Sep 27th, 2007 (9/27/2007 5:41pm) in reply to born2winit

    raise pre

    fold to 5x

    villan almost never has AK imo

    i dont like leading because it gives him a chance to fold AK/AQ and the like; check/raising at least means they might bet a weaker hand and they might fold to a raise

    a raise on the flop is a semibluff, a call as played is a...?
     2
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