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$215 Merge HR FT - shove for value?

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  1. Ninemil Ninemil is offline

    Posts: 213
    Joined: Aug 06

    Aug 9th, 2011 (8/9/2011 6:59am)

    At the FT of the Merge "High Roller" (lawlz)

    Villian is Illini21 and I have him at 23/15/5.6 over 487 hands. Hes been active but not out of line...do we have to get it in here considering how short we are? Obv we have zero FE but is this a value shove?

    Grabbed by Holdem Manager
    NL Holdem $2,000(BB) Replayer
    SB ($37,263)
    BB ($130,608)
    UTG ($49,091)
    UTG+1 ($45,935)
    UTG+2 ($65,344)
    CO ($82,107)
    hero ($17,152)

    Dealt to Hero Kh Js

    fold, fold, UTG+2 raises to $4,000, fold, hero?
     
  2. 13Jayhawk13 13Jayhawk13 is offline

    Olathe, KS
    United States

    Posts: 761
    Joined: Feb 08

    Aug 9th, 2011 (8/9/2011 7:18am) in reply to Ninemil

    The fact that the BB is the big stack should result in a stronger range for UTG+2, so I wonder whether we see more than 30% here. Against top 30% we are a slight dog. I probably do an impatient flip here.
  3. Gags30 Gags30 is offline

    Posts: 6,700
    Joined: Aug 07

    Aug 9th, 2011 (8/9/2011 9:16am) in reply to 13Jayhawk13

     
    Originally Posted by 13Jayhawk13 View Post

    The fact that the BB is the big stack should result in a stronger range for UTG+2, so I wonder whether we see more than 30% here. Against top 30% we are a slight dog. I probably do an impatient flip here.

    we're not a dog to 30%...there's a bunch of money out there already. if he's never folding to our shove (which is most likely not the case) then we only need to be like 40% to make this a +cEV play


    i don't think i'd fold here, KJ is just too good of a hand vs what he opens. if he's only opening 14% and never folding to a shove then getting KJ in here is +cEV (assuming no one behind wakes up with a hand...which we obv have to consider, but probably doens't happen often enough to make a huge difference). but anyway...if he opens 14% it's +ev to get it in here...and he's probably opening at least 20% here...so it's def +ev to shove

    oh, we obv don't have a ton of fold equity here...but he probably does fold when he was opening with like 74o or something here
    170 2 

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