i would think at least 50% or probly higher

Keep in mind that you are in 5th place with at least $110 equity, and a loss brings you to $0, while a win brings you to about $170. With three shorter stacks alive on the bubble, you need to watch it a bit.

You are looking at something like 15% max, and probably quite a bit less depending on your opponent's calling ranges. If this was a winner-take-all event, I'd be shoving considerably more than that.

50% is spewy. Please don't follow that advice.

 

Originally Posted by swd805

i would think at least 50% or probly higher

no chance. it's going to be pretty tight

Maybe Im just a spewtard but, Im shoving prob at least 40% of my hands here. My first question tho is, how did you get yourself in this spot?

Also I shud add that I love bubbling so maybe that has something to do with it.

 

Originally Posted by SloHand

Maybe Im just a spewtard but, Im shoving prob at least 40% of my hands here. My first question tho is, how did you get yourself in this spot?

Also I shud add that I love bubbling so maybe that has something to do with it.

Umm i think at the ft bubble I had to call a shove in the bb. AT the time i had like 5500ish and the button shove for like 1800ish at 300/6 and lost 40/60. prety sure that's how it went down hard to remmber iwth 6 tbls going, lol

I'd love to get more responses to this I think A8o is pretty close in this spot. Maybe some would say easy fold and maybe it is. I'm not an ICM guy but I understand equity and reevaluating shove in light of the remaining stacks. Being a former mtt'er I was used to running into many more situations mid to lateish where I'd be shoving any two when it was folded to me with 5bb (obv). But I've since learned now that with so many fewer chips in play and with even the biggest stacks less than 20bb shoving ranges need to be adjusted big time, esp at ft, where you actually do have meaningful fold equity with 5-7 bb.

This is especially true in the $27 game. One HUGE diff than the lower levels. In $11 games when a shortish stack shoves, NO ONE can find their fold button. They'll call iwth JTo even if it means they're crippled when they lose.

A8o is a clear fold.

Shove AJo+ (It might even be AQ)

Do we really weigh 45 man payouts the same as a 9 man payout? Just a question. I think I am probably shoving A10 + and 88+. A10 and AJ or very reluctant pushes though to be sure. It is important to remember though, shoving UTG of a 9 man table there really could be a lot of hands that can have you in trouble

 

Originally Posted by userid363

 

Originally Posted by Jennifear

A8o is a clear fold.

Shove AJo+ (It might even be AQ)

Jennifear, besides what % to shove, aren't we also concerned about shoving aces that are likely to be dominated? In this spot, utg with the crossover ace, I think I'm more likely to shove 7 8 suited than a weak ace

Good post userid363, you bring up a good point that allows me to clear something up.

Just because I said 10% max does not mean the "top 10%" of hands. It means the 10% of hands that match up best against the possible calling ranges.

I looked at this hand again, and:

9.4%, 55+ ATs+ AQo+ KTs+ QTs+ JTs

is the most that I would shove here, and probably less.

As far as the "which is better-- 78s or A7o?" debate....

Against a really tight calling range, 78s is better:

<TABLE class=pptSimTable cellSpacing=0 border=1><TBODY><TR class=pptSimLabels><TH>Hand</TH><TH>Pot equity</TH><TH>Wins</TH><TH>Ties</TH></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=pptSpec>AA-JJ,AK</TD><TD class=pptEV>70.68%</TD><TD class=pptWinsHi>193,119,728</TD><TD class=pptTiesHi>1,067,220</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD class=pptSpec>78s</TD><TD class=pptEV>29.32%</TD><TD class=pptWinsHi>79,781,692</TD><TD class=pptTiesHi>1,067,220</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE class=pptSimTable cellSpacing=0 border=1><TBODY><TR class=pptSimLabels><TH>Hand</TH><TH>Pot equity</TH><TH>Wins</TH><TH>Ties</TH></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=pptSpec>AA-JJ,AK</TD><TD class=pptEV>74.37%</TD><TD class=pptWinsHi>497,436,492</TD><TD class=pptTiesHi>13,719,024</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD class=pptSpec>a7o</TD><TD class=pptEV>25.63%</TD><TD class=pptWinsHi>166,916,868</TD><TD class=pptTiesHi>13,719,024</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Against someone calling 5% (88+, AJs+, AKo, KQs) it's about even:

<TABLE class=pptSimTable cellSpacing=0 border=1><TBODY><TR class=pptSimLabels><TH>Hand</TH><TH>Pot equity</TH><TH>Wins</TH><TH>Ties</TH></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=pptSpec>aa-88,aks-ajs,ako,kqs</TD><TD class=pptEV>71.50%</TD><TD class=pptWinsHi>326,808,300</TD><TD class=pptTiesHi>2,649,648</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD class=pptSpec>78s</TD><TD class=pptEV>28.50%</TD><TD class=pptWinsHi>129,439,524</TD><TD class=pptTiesHi>2,649,648</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE class=pptSimTable cellSpacing=0 border=1><TBODY><TR class=pptSimLabels><TH>Hand</TH><TH>Pot equity</TH><TH>Wins</TH><TH>Ties</TH></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=pptSpec>aa-88,aks-ajs,ako,kqs</TD><TD class=pptEV>71.53%</TD><TD class=pptWinsHi>884,869,200</TD><TD class=pptTiesHi>23,472,108</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD class=pptSpec>A7o</TD><TD class=pptEV>28.47%</TD><TD class=pptWinsHi>345,065,220</TD><TD class=pptTiesHi>23,472,108</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
And against a wider range, A7o is better.

So the tighter the range you face, the better off you are with the suited connectors as opposed to the weak ace.

There's more study on this in this otherwise unrelated article:

An Introduction to Restealing

 

Originally Posted by TiltinShoes

Do we really weigh 45 man payouts the same as a 9 man payout?

Almost the same. It's funny that nothing has really been written about this. I'll be changing that soon.

If you wanna have some fun, throw the stacks and prizes (45 mans have a 14-10-7-5-4-3-2 structure) in here and you'll see how big the risk is compared to the reward!
ICM Calculator: 10 places

Man, my 9 man game sucks. Soooooo, can you please just tell me my shove-happy game is still plus ev? LOL looks like Jennifear lessons are close at hand!