Seat 1: Haleike ($436.35 in chips)
Seat 2: castroper5 ($458.50 in chips)
Seat 3: 4ibis ($695 in chips)
Seat 4: nanonoko ($632.40 in chips)
Seat 5: VicTree ($705 in chips)
Seat 6: YAOMINGMING ($609 in chips)
castroper5: posts small blind $3
4ibis: posts big blind $6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Haleike [6h 6d]
nanonoko: raises $12 to $18
VicTree: folds
YAOMINGMING: calls $18
Haleike: calls $18
castroper5: raises $18 to $36
4ibis: folds
nanonoko: calls $18
YAOMINGMING: calls $18
Haleike: calls $18
*** FLOP *** [5s 3d 4d]
castroper5: bets $150
nanonoko: folds
YAOMINGMING: folds
Haleike: ???

My thoughts up to this point is that it is crazy that 4 of us are seeing the flop and how odd the min-raise by castroper5 was into 3 other players. I feel pretty confident that castroper5 either has a big big pair or is getting tricky with a large suited connector of 10-J or better. At this point, I have ruled out all small and medium pocket pairs from his range. After the 3d-4d-5s flop, I am confident castroper5's hand did not improve.

On the flop castroper5 bets $150 which is the size of the pot. There is now $300 in the pot and it is up to me to fold, call or shove. Castroper5 has me covered and has $272.50 left. I have $400.35 left ($250.35 if I call).

What is your play? Fold, Call or Shove?

Are the assumptions I have made regarding his range in line?

Considering this is the best possible flop for u not containing a 6, I think folding here is really weak. Even if he has an overpair, u still have ten live outs. If he has a big flush draw then u are even money getting 2 to 1 on a call. I think the best play here would be to shove. If he is messing around w/ two high cards then he folds and u win a nice pot. If it is worst case scenario then u still are only a small dog. Most importantly u put the pressure back on him to call of his stack w/ prob at best only one pair.

The assumptions u made about his line are pretty solid imo.

I'm a fairly brutal NLHE cash game player...so take everything here with a grain of salt. If I'm wrong in my line, blast me.

I'm fairly sure he's playing AA or KK bad (I don't understand the baby re-raise at all), as opposed to something like KdQd tricky. If he's got the big pair, and you shove, you're betting $400 to win $550...just shy of 3:2 on your money. With your 10 outs, you're not quite there, although it's pretty close. If there's any sort of reasonable chance he folds (10-15%) to your shove, that's enough to make it the right play. But I don't think there is.

I don't think you can just call, although I'm not good enough at cash games to really articulate why.

Thanks for the input so far.

Here were my thoughts and the results.

I believe it was a marginal situation where I was slightly +EV or -EV. In other words the only horrible play by me would be the call imo. I felt I needed to shove or fold. In trying to determine if my shove would be profitable, I assigned odds to the hand ranges that I put on castroper5. Obviously these %s are completely guestimates on my part.

5% of the time I thought he would be bluffing and fold

50% of the time he has AA-QQ without a diamond

30% of the time he has AA-QQ with a diamond

7.5% of the time he has AdKd

7.5% of the time he has AdKx or AxKd

Graps makes a very good point that my fold equity is a pivotal point in my decision.

Herb makes a great point in that this is a dream flop for my hand without a 6.

Here is the rest of the HH

Seat 1: Haleike ($436.35 in chips)
Seat 2: castroper5 ($458.50 in chips)
Seat 3: 4ibis ($695 in chips)
Seat 4: nanonoko ($632.40 in chips)
Seat 5: VicTree ($705 in chips)
Seat 6: YAOMINGMING ($609 in chips)
castroper5: posts small blind $3
4ibis: posts big blind $6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Haleike [6h 6d]
nanonoko: raises $12 to $18
VicTree: folds
YAOMINGMING: calls $18
Haleike: calls $18
castroper5: raises $18 to $36
4ibis: folds
nanonoko: calls $18
YAOMINGMING: calls $18
Haleike: calls $18
*** FLOP *** [5s 3d 4d]
castroper5: bets $150
nanonoko: folds
YAOMINGMING: folds
Haleike: raises $250.35 to $400.35 and is all-in
castroper5: calls $250.35
*** TURN *** [5s 3d 4d] [Js]
*** RIVER *** [5s 3d 4d Js] [2d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
castroper5: shows [Qc Qs] (a pair of Queens)
Haleike: shows [6h 6d] (a straight, Deuce to Six)
Haleike collected $947.70 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $950.70 | Rake $3
Board [5s 3d 4d Js 2d]
Seat 1: Haleike (button) showed [6h 6d] and won ($947.70) with a straight, Deuce to Six
Seat 2: castroper5 (small blind) showed [Qc Qs] and lost with a pair of Queens
Seat 3: 4ibis (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: nanonoko folded on the Flop
Seat 5: VicTree folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: YAOMINGMING folded on the Flop

After running the numbers based on my guestimations, I was just slightly +EV if castroper5 never folds and earn about $23.48 for shoving. If he folds 5% of the time I can expect to earn about $39.14. If I had to do it over again, I probably lean to a fold in the hopes I can find a better spot.

Thanks again for your input!

You did it just right. I hadn't worked in "two overs + flush draw" in my equity calculation. I think your percentages are accurate.

And, most important, I'm glad you got there, and castroper was duly punished for playing QQ so bad pre-flop.

 

Originally Posted by grapsfan

I'm a fairly brutal NLHE cash game player...so take everything here with a grain of salt. If I'm wrong in my line, blast me.

I'm fairly sure he's playing AA or KK bad (I don't understand the baby re-raise at all), as opposed to something like KdQd tricky. If he's got the big pair, and you shove, you're betting $400 to win $550...just shy of 3:2 on your money. With your 10 outs, you're not quite there, although it's pretty close. If there's any sort of reasonable chance he folds (10-15%) to your shove, that's enough to make it the right play. But I don't think there is.

I don't think you can just call, although I'm not good enough at cash games to really articulate why.

I do think there is enough fold equity here to justify a shove. I think there has to be at least a 5% he is overplaying AK or AQ and trying to buy the pot. I would also add another 10-15% chance this player is good enough to fold an over pair to an all in reraise. The way the hand played out, a set is well within our range and a thinking player might fold if he thinks he may only be drawing to two out. As played, villain played this hand terrible. Terrible min raise pre, and then way too big of a bet on a coordinated board. If there is an argument for folding, it is how bad a line villain took here perhaps persuading us to wait for a better spot against him because he is obv an idiot. But against a thinking player I think this is a shove every time. When the money went in u were 40.6% to win the hand with a 1.6% chance of a tie. This indeed gives u the correct odds to make this play even if there is no fold equity at all, but in this spot it would be a mistake not to at least put a minimum of about 5% chance of a fold, making this an even better play imo.