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pokerstars Game #10506362819: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2007/06/18 - 23:00:37 (ET)
Table 'Celaeno III' 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: michfan00 ($83.25 in chips)
Seat 2: irishlad13 ($9.50 in chips)
Seat 3: BiG BaLLiN 1 ($69.55 in chips)
irishlad13: posts small blind $0.25
BiG BaLLiN 1: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BiG BaLLiN 1 [Ah Ks]
michfan00: raises $1 to $1.50
irishlad13: folds
BiG BaLLiN 1: raises $3.50 to $5
michfan00: calls $3.50
*** FLOP *** [Ad 9h 9c]
BiG BaLLiN 1: bets $5.50
michfan00: calls $5.50
*** TURN *** [Ad 9h 9c] [8s]
BiG BaLLiN 1: checks
michfan00: checks
*** RIVER *** [Ad 9h 9c 8s] [2h]
BiG BaLLiN 1: bets $10.50
michfan00: raises $20 to $30.50
BiG BaLLiN 1: ? -
IMO you shouldn't be in this situation, slow down on the turn and river and you wouldn't be forced with such a big decision. I think it's a pretty easy fold myself but I would prob call at these limits just because of the odds. I dunno, I hate cash game but that's my opinion.
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Didn't notice check on turn, you should check/call river. EASY
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i checked the turn, wanted to get some pot control?
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i check cALL river, but imo i think u played ur hand weaker than it is. i feel like he can put u on kk qq with ur check and might be pushing alil for value. i think if u check turn and are folding to a reriase, u should jus check river, but i dont think this is as easy of a fold and i prolly call
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he might have AA hoping you have KK here with your reraises depending on how active you been at the table if your pretty tight he will smooth call with AA hoping you have KK QQ and flop come 9 high T high ect and you comitt your chips. Worse case situation he has quads I dont think he has 88 cause he call on the flop is pretty loose. You have to slow down like everyone says. Fold the river though obv your beat. Most of the time a reraise on the river your toast check call the river. Your probally going to pay him off he played it like a monster. In these situations you have to think to your self what are you beating. AQ unlikely he reraises river. KK QQ nope not with an A out there. AK he reraise flop to see where he is at and probally wont reraise river. range he has would be AAA 9999 unlikely 888 and 222
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You are both deeper than a normal stack and he is the button. You cant go putting him on AA here very often, He's gonna show you a naked 9 here most of the time....A9 is possible but unlikely as he will usually muck it to a 3 bet preflop...but call w/ suited connectors like 910s, J9s, Q9s, and 89s... Overall He played the hand horribly if he did have a 9 as no hand but a strong ace will pay it off in a huge pot...since it is a 3 bet preflop pot he should be maximizing his value against AK and AQ. if he is playing not to go broke to AA he blows it on the river so thats no excuse. If he has 99 the same argument holds....in either case if he 3.5 bets your weak halfpot bet on the flop he probably stacks you 85 percent of the time. Assuming he does have a 9 or 99 and flats your cont. bet he HAS to bet the turn. There are no draws he can represent missing w/ a big bluff bet on the river...I mean i just cant see this line getting 130+ bbs into the pot...
With all that in mind AA is in exactly the opposite boat if he had AA he played it almost perfectly b/c ur unlikely to have the A and if you have the 9 he's stacking you often anyway on the river..usually he'll make more money off you bluffing or making a crying call w/ KK on the river. Theres only one way he makes AA if this happens 3 handed...cooler
88 is makes better sense than a 9 as far as if he took a decent line with it...standard preflop raise...calls reraise w/ position and odds for a set.....calls a cont. bet on flop ???(the ace came so this is wrong everything that had him beat still beats him and almost everything that he beat preflop just outran him) catches lucky, traps on the river. I think if i managed to get to the turn w/ 88 here id bet it anyway figuring most hands are gonna be more scared of the ace when i bet big on the river than the 9 or the 8.... so my max value comes from AQ or AK again.
Now you have to remember that most big river bets at these limits (no metagame) are either monsters or bluffs. If this guy is a bad player I would assign just as much likelyhood to the bluff as to a 9 here. Notice the amount he's risking is not leaving him much down from an original buyin. In a last ditch panic effort to win this 4bet preflop but still somehow miniscule on the river pot he attacks...and why not you've played the hand weak ever since the flop (half pot bet...check...halfpot bet).
To sum it up my opinion is this...if he's a bad player...its 60percent trip 9s (count 89 in this category also) 35 percent bluff (usually J10s i think for some reason)and 5 percent or so 88.
If he is a good player its hardly ever a bluff and some merit could go to AA but more often than not it will just be a poorly played 9. -
call you have the same hand or he has AQ










