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3Bet Pot vs Fish in 33cap

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  1. nuaminister nuaminister is offline

    Singapore

    Posts: 5
    Joined: Jan 12

    Jul 17th, 2012 (7/17/2012 5:40pm)

    Here goes,

    Poker stars $30+$3 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t250/t500 Blinds + t60 - 9 players - View hand 1826986
    DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

    UTG: t5302
    UTG+1: t9478
    UTG+2: t11738
    MP1: t9756
    MP2: t18830
    CO: t29512
    BTN: t37131
    SB: t22174
    Hero (BB): t22969

    Pre Flop: (t1290) Hero is BB with A A
    3 folds, MP1 raises to t1190, 2 folds, BTN calls t1190, 1 fold, Hero raises to t2137, MP1 calls t947, BTN calls t947

    Flop: (t7201) Q 8 T (3 players)
    Hero bets t2664, MP1 folds, BTN raises to t21000,


    Okay, so button is running 63/31/80(vpip/pfr/steal) over 55 hands and on my HUD he doesnt fold to 3bets
    my initial plan was to 3bet and get it in against the the initial open who has 20bb stack.
    So when the BTN flatted it kinda screw my plan up, so i decided to cbet flop with the hope of inducing a shove against PFR or shoving any turn card if he calls
    What would u guys do here
     
  2. bazingaking bazingaking is offline

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    Jul 17th, 2012 (7/17/2012 6:06pm) in reply to nuaminister

    Hi, welcome to P5s! Interesting first post.

    Are the suits of the cards important? Because if there is a flush draw on the flop then that makes a load more possible hands in villain's range - ie. the monster draws (flush and straight draws) which are willing to get all in on the flop.

    Villain's range entering the flop is huge, full of suited connectors, gapped connectors, low pairs - I'd think TT and QQ and maybe even 88 are unlikely because he would probably have raised pre-flop since the stats say he is very aggressive - broadway hands etc.

    In this situation history with the villain matters a lot, for example whether he has made over-bets before? When he does, does he have the nuts or is he bluffing? Does he re-raise post-flop often or just call? etc.

    Importantly, is he a calling station (his VPIP seems to suggest that and the fact the doesn't fold to 3-bets) ? If so, this raise looks much scarier, and suggests that he has a really strong hand.

    Presuming he is a calling station, I would think that he has a flopped straight (J9), two pair (QT) or perhaps a set (88). Super draws, if a flush is possible or open-ended straight draws, will occasionally make up part of his range but this is such a huge over-bet that it limits the number of draws he would make the bet with. He would probably just call the flop with weaker/medium strength draws.

    I think his range is much more weighted towards the nuts hands, or super draws we are probably under-dogs against, and our over-pair is probably beat. So I would fold, even without the given information I have asked for.
    Edited By: bazingaking Jul 17th, 2012 at 06:07 PM
    Reason: Adding a thought.
  3. nuaminister nuaminister is offline

    Singapore

    Posts: 5
    Joined: Jan 12

    Jul 17th, 2012 (7/17/2012 6:33pm) in reply to bazingaking

    Thanks for the quick reply!

    Board was reading Qh8cTc and i did not have the nut blocker

    No specific notes on him just that he likes to minbet all his toppairs and midpairs in position
     
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  4. bazingaking bazingaking is offline

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    Posts: 344
    Joined: Apr 11

    Jul 17th, 2012 (7/17/2012 7:06pm) in reply to nuaminister

    ^ Alrighty, given this information we can add a good number of monster draws into his range. Hands like KJ of clubs, AJ of clubs, 79 of clubs etc. Now we can use pokerstove to see how good our AA faces against this part of villain's range. I still think it's an odd way to play even a monster draw to over-bet it, but maybe he thinks he has so many ways to win the hand he wants to get all the chips in the middle.

    AA vs KJ of clubs on this board is: 51.5% vs 48.5% in our favour.
    AA vs 79 of clubs = 45% vs 55% against us.
    AA vs 79 no clubs = 66% vs 34% in our favour - this sort of draw I think is unlikely, and probably the worst draw he could have.

    So his range, IMO, is mainly made up of either made hands which dominate us (sets, made straights, two pair etc.) or drawing hands against which we are an underdog or a slight fave depending upon his draw.

    I doubt he will have that many draws which I haven't listed, and I doubt he will be bluffing such a large portion of his stack for relatively little gain.
  5. tyson219 tyson219 is offline Moderator

    United States

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    Joined: Feb 06

    Jul 17th, 2012 (7/17/2012 8:11pm) in reply to bazingaking

    Your 3bet sizing is really bad in this spot. You're out of position against a very deep stacked and active button. You allow both players to flat with their entire range. Even though pfr is short, you can't assume he'll be jamming his entire range, so a larger bet is needed. 3b to at least 2850. I'd probably even go 3k-3.2k.

    As played, it's a pretty gross flop for you since that board hits a fair amount of the buttons range. There's a ton of combo draws (QJ, JT, T9, Q9, etc). A shove like that is more likely to be a combo draw than a flopped straight or two pair. But sometimes bad players attempt to "protect" their hand on a board like that against flushes/straights, so you could be way behind already. I'd probably just fold and move on since there are few hands you dominate, most draws have a ton of equity and I can't see very many bluffs in villains range here.
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