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3r hand on stars, Do I jam the turn?

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  1. gamble153 gamble153 is offline

    Jupiter, FL
    United States

    Posts: 1,179
    Joined: Oct 09

    Oct 2nd, 2010 (10/2/2010 6:21am)

    Villian just got moved to the table so I have never played a hand with him.

    pokerstars Game #50465039919: Tournament #333010515, $3.00+$0.30 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXI (3500/7000) - 2010/10/01 18:18:49 ET
    Table '333010515 295' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
    Seat 1: NEW CITIZEN (221149 in chips)
    Seat 2: GratedEgg (81000 in chips)
    Seat 3: Survern (218590 in chips)
    Seat 4: Bolle078 (220550 in chips)
    Seat 5: Nutstar (44745 in chips)
    Seat 6: gamble (252920 in chips)
    Seat 7: laludora (91895 in chips)
    Seat 8: Desateur (135131 in chips)
    Seat 9: ruca1971 (350204 in chips)
    NEW CITIZEN: posts the ante 700
    GratedEgg: posts the ante 700
    Survern: posts the ante 700
    Bolle078: posts the ante 700
    Nutstar: posts the ante 700
    gamble: posts the ante 700
    laludora: posts the ante 700
    Desateur: posts the ante 700
    ruca1971: posts the ante 700
    Desateur: posts small blind 3500
    ruca1971: posts big blind 7000
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to gamble [Ah 9h]
    NEW CITIZEN: folds
    GratedEgg: folds
    Survern: folds
    Bolle078: calls 7000
    Nutstar: folds
    gamble: raises 9550 to 16550
    laludora: folds
    Desateur: folds
    ruca1971: calls 9550
    Bolle078: folds
    *** FLOP *** [2h 9s 3c]
    ruca1971: bets 21000
    gamble: raises 41000 to 62000
    ruca1971: calls 41000
    *** TURN *** [2h 9s 3c] [4h]
    ruca1971: bets 35000
    gamble:????

    I am thinking I love the flop and the turn is not horrid either. I think the pot is near 170K and i have about 175k behind. I have seen so many lo limit players put out small blocker bets to draw cheap.

    Jam or flat??? I hate flatting here but...
  2. mapunk mapunk is offline

    Encinitas, CA
    United States

    Posts: 1,321
    Joined: Jun 06

    Oct 2nd, 2010 (10/2/2010 8:59am) in reply to gamble153

    Top pair, FD, and a gutter and basically a pot stack on the turn. I don't think there should be much thought to this
    Edited By: mapunk Oct 2nd, 2010 at 09:00 AM
     
  3. bonflizubi bonflizubi is offline

    Cambridge, MA
    United States

    Posts: 4,519
    Joined: Sep 07

    Oct 2nd, 2010 (10/2/2010 9:10am) in reply to mapunk

    ruca's bet could be the blocker, or it could be the small baiting bet where they snap off your raise too. The turn is basically a blank except for bringing in the FD so I don't see why he'd block bet a blank here.

    He called your 3bet pre cold and then called your flop raise too. I doubt he is on air and there is a fair chance he has an overpair.

    So on the one hand you have the pot behind it's an easy shove with all those outs - but if he is never folding, there's some merit to just calling too - you'll have 20bb behind still roughly if you miss, and you are getting a sick price to draw to best case 9 hearts, 3 5's and 3 aces and the 2 non heart 9's for 17 outs or what lets say 30-34% depending on what cards he might have.

    so i don't mind just a call here depending on whether you think he is folding ever.
     
  4. CJDeman CJDeman is offline

    Sydney
    Australia

    Posts: 820
    Joined: Jul 07

    Oct 2nd, 2010 (10/2/2010 9:17am) in reply to bonflizubi

    I am thrown by his leading out on the turn - he has already been raised on the flop, does he not expect to get raised again? He was getting a great price to call pre, so his range is pretty wide - hard to believe he has 2 pair, but sets are plausible, as are hands like 98, T9, J9. Having said all that, with TPTK and the nut flush draw, I am probably just jamming with less thought than I have put into this post - which is probably a leak! Interested to hear results...
    Edited By: CJDeman Oct 2nd, 2010 at 09:18 AM
     
  5. gamble153 gamble153 is offline

    Jupiter, FL
    United States

    Posts: 1,179
    Joined: Oct 09

    Oct 2nd, 2010 (10/2/2010 4:22pm) in reply to CJDeman

    i am not sure, maybe just acting to fast without thinking, but I never put him on an overpaar as most people will tend to want to reraise s hand that is vulnerable to a bad flop. Thanks for the insight tho,

    pokerstars Game #50465039919: Tournament #333010515, $3.00+$0.30 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXI (3500/7000) - 2010/10/01 18:18:49 ET
    Table '333010515 295' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
    Seat 1: NEW CITIZEN (221149 in chips)
    Seat 2: GratedEgg (81000 in chips)
    Seat 3: Survern (218590 in chips)
    Seat 4: Bolle078 (220550 in chips)
    Seat 5: Nutstar (44745 in chips)
    Seat 6: gamble (252920 in chips)
    Seat 7: laludora (91895 in chips)
    Seat 8: Desateur (135131 in chips)
    Seat 9: ruca1971 (350204 in chips)
    NEW CITIZEN: posts the ante 700
    GratedEgg: posts the ante 700
    Survern: posts the ante 700
    Bolle078: posts the ante 700
    Nutstar: posts the ante 700
    gamble: posts the ante 700
    laludora: posts the ante 700
    Desateur: posts the ante 700
    ruca1971: posts the ante 700
    Desateur: posts small blind 3500
    ruca1971: posts big blind 7000
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to gamble [Ah 9h]
    NEW CITIZEN: folds
    GratedEgg: folds
    Survern: folds
    Bolle078: calls 7000
    Nutstar: folds
    gamble: raises 9550 to 16550
    laludora: folds
    Desateur: folds
    ruca1971: calls 9550
    Bolle078: folds
    *** FLOP *** [2h 9s 3c]
    ruca1971: bets 21000
    gamble: raises 41000 to 62000
    ruca1971: calls 41000
    *** TURN *** [2h 9s 3c] [4h]
    ruca1971: bets 35000
    gamble: raises 138670 to 173670 and is all-in
    ruca1971: calls 138670
    *** RIVER *** [2h 9s 3c 4h] [3s]
    *** SHOW DOWN ***
    ruca1971: shows [Jd Jc] (two pair, Jacks and Threes)
    gamble: shows [Ah 9h] (two pair, Nines and Threes)
    ruca1971 collected 521240 from pot

    I think I convinced myself quickly on the turn that he had a hand like 4 5 and was betting small to get a cheap price for his outs.
    Edited By: gamble153 Oct 2nd, 2010 at 04:23 PM
    Thread Starter
  6. bonflizubi bonflizubi is offline

    Cambridge, MA
    United States

    Posts: 4,519
    Joined: Sep 07

    Oct 2nd, 2010 (10/2/2010 6:48pm) in reply to gamble153

    Live and learn ;)

    THere are a lot of micro guys that like to get value (so they think) by donk betting small knowing you will raise the nuisance bet - and they do it either when chasing, or as in this case when they have the goods.

    Equity wise though have you stoved this? You got the money in good in that respect. With the jam you had 33% pot equity.



    But as it turns out, even if you put him on an over pair: TT+ you got the money in good, thugh with only a slim edge. 36% hand equity. And if you rule out AA and make it TT-KK it's 37.5%

    So EV wise, you made a +EV shove. I think people could reasonably debate on whether shoving> calling here or not, but if he is going to likely barrel the river as well calling might well be > shoving here since you get his money but yet preserve your tny life.



    Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

    14,958,062 games 7.984 secs 1,873,504 games/sec

    Board: 2h 9s 3c 4h
    Dead:

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 63.527% 63.18% 00.38% 9450433 56752.00 { TT+ }
    Hand 1: 36.473% 36.11% 00.38% 5401797 56753.00 { Ah9h }
     
  7. s.l. halper s.l. halper is offline

    Garwood, NJ
    United States

    Posts: 1,017
    Joined: Aug 06

    Oct 2nd, 2010 (10/2/2010 9:12pm) in reply to bonflizubi

    nh OP- bink it next time.

    And bon: you probably know this but 3r randoms are almost impossible to range. However villain's range is never just {TT+} OTT in the stars 3r.
    Once you add in spaz calls, stubborn calls, some weaker draws and villain's entire 9x range (if you play 3rs regularly you know villains are all still in there with those holdings) OP has just made an easy peazy, oh boy this is great, value jam.

    EDIT: And OP is iso-ing a limper PF, not 3-betting. Villain has a plethora of lesser holdings that might get involved here that could stubbornly stick around to the turn.
    Edited By: s.l. halper Oct 2nd, 2010 at 09:17 PM
     
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