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40 bb stack vs a calling station

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  1. gershenator1 gershenator1 is offline

    United States

    Posts: 550
    Joined: Jan 08

    Nov 26th, 2009 (11/26/2009 12:51pm)

    <span>Villian is running a 51-30 over 150+ hands dude is aweful and opens for between 5 and 6 times the big blind regularly so fwiw his bet sizing is atrocious...</span>
    <span>
    Full Tilt Poker Game #16313704050: Big Double - A (120186448), Table 15 - 1200/2400 Ante 300 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:37:09 ET - 2009/11/26
    Seat 1: Villian(127,981)
    Seat 3: ballajr (96,134)
    Seat 4: mdb48 (25,492)
    Seat 6: ImNotHereToBrag (47,895)
    Seat 8: Hero (102,498)
    joelm0512 antes 300
    ballajr antes 300
    mdb48 antes 300
    ImNotHereToBrag antes 300
    gershenator1 antes 300
    mdb48 posts the small blind of 1,200
    ImNotHereToBrag posts the big blind of 2,400
    The button is in seat #3
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to HERO [As 6s]
    EBENSDADDY (Observer): gg
    HERO raises to 6,040
    joelm0512 has 15 seconds left to act
    VILLIAN calls 6,040
    ballajr folds
    mdb48 folds
    ImNotHereToBrag folds
    *** FLOP *** [Ad 8h 4d]
    HERO checks
    Villian bets 12,000
    gershenator1 has 15 seconds left to act
    HERO calls 12,000
    *** TURN *** [Ad 8h 4d] [Tc]
    HERO bets 14,995
    VILLIAN calls 14,995
    *** RIVER *** [Ad 8h 4d Tc] [Ks]
    ................

    Didn't want to check the turn because he had no clue w/ bet sizing so whether he is bluffing or has a hand here he has no clue how to bet and could make it full pot 30k into 40k or w/e and put me in a bind. So i'd rather lead turn and fold to a jam cause my line looks so strong with the check call then lead he won't jam on me light he's def. not good enough to jam combo draws etc. thats why he's a station so wtf should be our line vs a player like this? Check/call then check/fold seems weak idk the river is problematic when we lead tho so I dont want to check the river and have him jam A7 and A9 which he probably won't call when I jam riv so this whole hand is pretty much a mess thoughts on this spot especially with the two shorter stacks so lemme know what line is best here?...</span>

    oh and btw there's 5 left in the big dub so there are some ICM considerations payouts r

    3100
    2000
    1500
    1175
    875

    and we are 1st and 2nd in chips and there's two shorter stacks so i'm assuming that should play a factor in the line that we take
     
  2. flipbsj flipbsj is offline

    Des Moines, IA
    United States

    Posts: 68
    Joined: Jan 08

    Nov 27th, 2009 (11/27/2009 2:27pm) in reply to gershenator1

    Since there's about 70k in the pot. You have approx 68k left in your stack if my math's right. I'd say check/fold - it may seem like a weak line, but if you have confidence in your game, its better to take that line than to lose 25k more to A7 or A9 like you said. I think with 5 ppl left.

    First has 40% equity if he takes it down now
    2nd has 24%
    you have about a 16% equity or 68k with your current stack.

    So most likely you'll get third now with 1500, and you can still come back to get 1st or 2nd. I just don't see why you should play this hand further when you don't know. Look for a better spot. Unless he's been playing ANY ace...its not worth it.
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