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45-man Turbo Finish Position Stats

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  1. Fritters Fritters is offline

    Hilton, NY
    United States

    Posts: 76
    Joined: Mar 08

    Oct 7th, 2008 (10/7/2008 4:25pm)

    Got bored at work today and started writing a code to look at variance in these things over small sample sizes. Anyone interested in offering up their finish position by % for these (or posting mine, if you have sharkscope)?
  2. Jennifear Jennifear is online now

    Niagara Falls, NY
    United States

    Posts: 10,222
    Joined: Nov 05

    Oct 7th, 2008 (10/7/2008 4:46pm) in reply to Fritters

    Here's mine:

    1st=38
    2nd=25
    3rd=21
    4th=29
    5th=26
    6th=21
    7th=17
    8th=18
    9th=26
    10th=22
    11th=18
    12th=22
    13th=29
    14th=33
    15th=30
    16th=21
    17th=24
    18th=21
    19th=27
    20th=24
    21st=26
    22nd=29
    23rd=24
    24th=25
    25th=20
    26th=17
    27th=24
    28th=28
    29th=15
    30th=23
    31st=14
    32nd=13
    33rd=8
    34th=13
    35th=11
    36th=11
    37th=11
    38th=14
    39th=9
    40th=4
    41st=7
    42nd=15
    43rd=3
    44th=6
    45th=5

    Total 907 games, 34% ROI. Hope that helps!
  3. Fritters Fritters is offline

    Hilton, NY
    United States

    Posts: 76
    Joined: Mar 08

    Oct 7th, 2008 (10/7/2008 4:49pm) in reply to Jennifear

    Excellent - Thanks!!
    Thread Starter
  4. Fritters Fritters is offline

    Hilton, NY
    United States

    Posts: 76
    Joined: Mar 08

    Oct 7th, 2008 (10/7/2008 5:42pm) in reply to Jennifear

    FYI - for your stats I got:

    <table x:str="" width="321" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" height="151"><tbody><tr height="17"><td width="123" height="17">Games in Set
    </td><td width="50">Roi(%)
    </td><td width="72">STDEV(%)</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" height="17">100</td><td x:num="">30.6</td><td x:num="">31.9</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" height="17">200</td><td x:num="">31.2</td><td x:num="">22.5</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" height="17">500</td><td x:num="">30.9</td><td x:num="">14.2</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" height="17">1000</td><td x:num="">30.9</td><td x:num="">10</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" height="17">2000</td><td x:num="">30.9</td><td x:num="">7.1</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" height="17">5000</td><td x:num="">30.9</td><td x:num="">4.5</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" height="17">10000</td><td x:num="">30.9</td><td x:num="">3.1
    </td></tr></tbody></table>

    I ran each set of games 10,000 times, then used the 10,000 sets to determine average ROI(%) and STDEV of that ROI over that sample size. You can effectively read this chart as:

    In a set of (Games in Set) games, my accepted ROI is (ROI(%) +/- STDEV(%)).

    So after 100 games, an ROI between -1.3% and 62.5% is reasonable.

    Also, I think the payout schedule I'm using is slightly different than the one used at stars, which explains the differences in ROI between what you posted and what I calculated.

    Thanks again for the stats - this will help me avoid life tilt when I have a terrible month because I only play ~100 games in that time.

    <table x:str="" width="321" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" height="151"><col width="123"> <col width="50"> <col width="72"> </table>
    Thread Starter
  5. Pipes06 Pipes06 is offline

    United Kingdom

    Posts: 321
    Joined: Oct 07

    Oct 7th, 2008 (10/7/2008 6:17pm) in reply to Fritters

    Nice idea.

    I haven't got time now but i'll try and get them of sharkscope tomorrow.
     
  6. Kiribato Kiribato is offline

    Lyon
    France

    Posts: 1,655
    Joined: Oct 07

    Oct 7th, 2008 (10/7/2008 6:39pm) in reply to Fritters

    here's mine on the 3/45
    576 played for 50% ROI

    1st: 21
    2nd: 22
    3rd: 22
    4th: 20
    5th: 20
    6th: 24
    7th: 9
    8th: 14
    9th: 18
    10th: 17
    11: 17
    12: 19
    13: 19
    14: 15
    15: 14
    16: 23
    17: 12
    18: 12
    19: 21
    20: 22
    21: 11
    22: 15
    23: 15
    24: 11
    25: 11
    26: 13
    27: 16
    28: 11
    29: 10
    30: 7
    31: 18
    32: 4
    33: 10
    34: 8
    35: 10
    36: 5
    37: 2
    38: 5
    39: 11
    40: 4
    41: 6
    42: 2
    43: 2
    44: 2
    45: 6
  7. Cashweekly Cashweekly is offline

    United States

    Posts: 2,427
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    Oct 7th, 2008 (10/7/2008 7:44pm) in reply to Fritters

    How do you get those #'s??

    I know it is easy enough to look up the money finishes in OPR, but how do you know how many times you finish 44th etc??
  8. Fritters Fritters is offline

    Hilton, NY
    United States

    Posts: 76
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    Oct 7th, 2008 (10/7/2008 7:51pm) in reply to Kiribato

    Thanks for the stats - I'll run them tomorrow to see how the numbers come out.
    Thread Starter
  9. Cashweekly Cashweekly is offline

    United States

    Posts: 2,427
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    Oct 7th, 2008 (10/7/2008 7:57pm) in reply to Fritters

    OK

    I hand counted these from OPR so subject to error.

    If someone knows to do this I would be super curious to knwo how many times I finished 11th etc prolly 113 times. These are from the $6 ones which is my largest sample size of the various levels.

    1st 67
    2nd 59
    3rd 63
    4th 43
    5th 61
    6th 48
    7th 59

    Not exactly dominating but somewhat top heavy anyways :)
  10. Cashweekly Cashweekly is offline

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    Posts: 2,427
    Joined: Aug 05

    Oct 7th, 2008 (10/7/2008 8:05pm) in reply to Cashweekly

    and $ places from the $12s from 1st to 7th

    29
    37
    24
    26
    18
    33
    23

    Still wieighted somewhat toward the top 2 but more all over the map as expected with the small sample
  11. ibluffheaps ibluffheaps is offline

    Australia

    Posts: 786
    Joined: Aug 07

    Oct 7th, 2008 (10/7/2008 8:19pm) in reply to Cashweekly

    Cool Idea, hope this helps
    205 1
  12. Pipes06 Pipes06 is offline

    United Kingdom

    Posts: 321
    Joined: Oct 07

    Oct 8th, 2008 (10/8/2008 1:01pm) in reply to Fritters

    Here ya go. Hope they are of use. 1441 games, mainly 45mans. 26% ROI

    1st - 43

    2nd - 36

    3rd - 46

    4th - 22

    5th - 33

    6th - 38

    7th - 21

    8th - 30

    9th - 28

    10th - 30

    11th - 38

    12th - 26

    13th - 23

    14th - 34

    15th - 34

    16th - 29

    17th - 27

    18th - 33

    19th - 28

    20th - 29

    21st - 35

    22nd - 29

    23rd - 25

    24th - 37

    25th - 34

    26th - 23

    27th - 42

    28th - 26

    29th - 14

    30th - 23

    31st - 17

    32nd - 18

    33rd - 17

    34th - 17

    35th - 12

    36th - 7

    37th - 15

    38th - 5

    39th - 11

    40th - 9

    41st - 12

    42nd - 13

    43rd - 5

    44th - 4

    45th - 12
     
  13. pharreal87 pharreal87 is offline

    Posts: 3,589
    Joined: Apr 08

    Oct 8th, 2008 (10/8/2008 1:33pm) in reply to Cashweekly

     
    Originally Posted by Cashweekly View Post

    How do you get those #'s??

    I know it is easy enough to look up the money finishes in OPR, but how do you know how many times you finish 44th etc??

    sharkscope...... u need to have a subscription.
  14. Fritters Fritters is offline

    Hilton, NY
    United States

    Posts: 76
    Joined: Mar 08

    Oct 8th, 2008 (10/8/2008 3:55pm) in reply to Fritters

    Okay, here are the results for the data I was able to use (thanks!).

    Jennifear (re-done with updated payout schedule)

    <table x:str="" width="308" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" height="151"><col width="123"> <col width="50"> <col width="72"> <tbody><tr height="17"><td width="123" height="17">Number of Games</td><td width="50">Roi (%)</td><td width="72">STDEV (%)</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" height="17">100</td><td x:num="">30.2</td><td x:num="">31.6</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" height="17">200</td><td x:num="">30.5</td><td x:num="">22.2</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" height="17">500</td><td x:num="">30.3</td><td x:num="">14.1</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" height="17">1000</td><td x:num="">30.4</td><td x:num="">10</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" height="17">2000</td><td x:num="">30.3</td><td x:num="">7</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" height="17">5000</td><td x:num="">30.3</td><td x:num="">4.4</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" height="17">10000</td><td x:num="">30.3</td><td x:num="">2</td></tr></tbody></table>

    Fritters
    <table x:str="" width="293" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" height="151"><col width="123"> <col width="50"> <col width="72"> <tbody><tr height="17"><td width="123" height="17">Number of Games</td><td width="50">Roi (%)</td><td width="72">STDEV (%)</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" height="17">100</td><td x:num="">55.9</td><td x:num="">32.9</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" height="17">200</td><td x:num="">56</td><td x:num="">23.2</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" height="17">500</td><td x:num="">56</td><td x:num="">14.9</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" height="17">1000</td><td x:num="">56.1</td><td x:num="">10.4</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" height="17">2000</td><td x:num="">56.1</td><td x:num="">7.5</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" height="17">5000</td><td x:num="">56.2</td><td x:num="">4.7</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" height="17">10000</td><td x:num="">56.1</td><td x:num="">3.3</td></tr></tbody></table>

    Kiribato
    <table x:str="" width="298" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" height="151"><col width="123"> <col width="50"> <col width="72"> <tbody><tr height="17"><td width="123" height="17">Number of Games</td><td width="50">Roi (%)</td><td width="72">STDEV (%)</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" height="17">100</td><td x:num="">49.8</td><td x:num="">31.9</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" height="17">200</td><td x:num="">50.1</td><td x:num="">22.6</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" height="17">500</td><td x:num="">49.6</td><td x:num="">14.3</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" height="17">1000</td><td x:num="">49.7</td><td x:num="">10.1</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" height="17">2000</td><td x:num="">49.8</td><td x:num="">7.1</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" height="17">5000</td><td x:num="">49.8</td><td x:num="">4.5</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" height="17">10000</td><td x:num="">49.8</td><td x:num="">3.2</td></tr></tbody></table>

    ibluffheaps
    <table x:str="" width="298" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" height="151"><col width="123"> <col width="50"> <col width="72"> <tbody><tr height="17"><td width="123" height="17">Number of Games</td><td width="50">Roi (%)</td><td width="72">STDEV (%)</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" height="17">100</td><td x:num="">30.4</td><td x:num="">32.4</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" height="17">200</td><td x:num="">30.4</td><td x:num="">22.6</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" height="17">500</td><td x:num="">30.2</td><td x:num="">14.4</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" height="17">1000</td><td x:num="">30.3</td><td x:num="">10.1</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" height="17">2000</td><td x:num="">30.1</td><td x:num="">7.2</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" height="17">5000</td><td x:num="">30.1</td><td x:num="">4.5</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" height="17">10000</td><td x:num="">30.2</td><td x:num="">3.2</td></tr></tbody></table>

    Pipes06
    <table x:str="" width="318" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" height="151"><col width="123"> <col width="50"> <col width="72"> <tbody><tr height="17"><td width="123" height="17">Number of Games</td><td width="50">Roi (%)</td><td width="72">STDEV (%)</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" height="17">100</td><td x:num="">41.4</td><td x:num="">32.5</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" height="17">200</td><td x:num="">41.3</td><td x:num="">22.7</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" height="17">500</td><td x:num="">41.3</td><td x:num="">14.3</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" height="17">1000</td><td x:num="">41.5</td><td x:num="">10.1</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" height="17">2000</td><td x:num="">41.5</td><td x:num="">7.1</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" height="17">5000</td><td x:num="">41.5</td><td x:num="">4.5</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" height="17">10000</td><td x:num="">41.5</td><td x:num="">3.2</td></tr></tbody></table>

    Summary: The standard deviations for particular sample sets seem to be almost independent of an individuals particular accepted roi% - though it would be nice to see some stats from a break even or losing player to see how that effects the relationship between accepted roi and stdev.

    Conclusion: A player is unlikely to get a true feel for their ROI in these tournaments until very high volumes are attained - around 5000 games will give most winning players will know their roi at this level +/- ~10%.

    At very low volumes (<200 games), your roi should be taken with a large grain of salt, as the error on your roi can equal or exceed 100%, depending on your true roi.

    At low volumes (~500-1000 games), you should be able to determine whether or not you are a winning player, but your ROI is still quite unreliable.

    Thanks to everyone that submitted stats - at the very least I found the results pretty interesting.
    Thread Starter
  15. Fritters Fritters is offline

    Hilton, NY
    United States

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    Oct 8th, 2008 (10/8/2008 3:58pm) in reply to Fritters

    Also, I should point out that differences in ROI% between what you gave me and what I calculated are likely due to differences in rake. My program was modeled after $6.00+$0.50 tournaments.
    Thread Starter
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