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$55k Gtd - 10 left - AQs

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  1. Bill Ivey Bill Ivey is offline

    Tucson, AZ
    United States

    Posts: 349
    Joined: Jan 06

    Aug 17th, 2007 (8/17/2007 6:29pm)

    Villain has been playing very aggressive on the bubble. I have 4bet shoved him twice and 3bet him once already and he folded all three times. I am currently 4th out of 10 in chips before the hand.

    Full Tilt Poker Game #3257187799: $55,000 Guarantee (24555678), Table 55 - 3000/6000 Ante 750 - No Limit Hold'em - 1:21:55 ET - 2007/08/15
    Seat 1: stewish6 (79,880)
    Seat 2: mortens25 (127,510)
    Seat 5: HisXLNC (165,526)
    Seat 8: Kunkles_221 (162,098)
    Seat 9: jse81 (257,172)
    stewish6 antes 750
    mortens25 antes 750
    HisXLNC antes 750
    Kunkles_221 antes 750
    jse81 antes 750
    stewish6 posts the small blind of 3,000
    mortens25 posts the big blind of 6,000
    The button is in seat #9
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to HisXLNC [Ac Qc]
    HisXLNC raises to 17,776
    Kunkles_221 calls 17,776
    jse81 calls 17,776
    stewish6 folds
    mortens25 raises to 126,760, and is all in

    There is ~84k in the pot, and its ~110k to call (roughly 3/4 of my chips).

    I think his range here is 99+, AQo+, possibly AJs since he is so aggressive. I particularly think he has a pair and its most likely a coinflip. With all the dead money out there and this being the bubble of the final table- What's your play?
     
  2. thenut21poker thenut21poker is offline

    Ithaca, NY
    United States

    Posts: 209
    Joined: Aug 06

    Aug 17th, 2007 (8/17/2007 6:32pm) in reply to Bill Ivey

    id shove lighter than AJ in his spot....Id get all my chips in with AQ in ur spot
     
  3. Tmay420 Tmay420 is offline

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    Joined: Dec 05

    Aug 17th, 2007 (8/17/2007 6:34pm) in reply to Bill Ivey

    tough spot lee, im sure u layed it down because i think that is the proper play. Sometimes i jsut say fuck it there and gamble because i think the chances of him having AJ is about the same as AK, i have him on a pair here all day but that is the thing with AQ in this spot as u know, ur just so damn worried hes got AK, gld?
    763 1
  4. Cmoney3 Cmoney3 is offline

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    Aug 17th, 2007 (8/17/2007 6:34pm) in reply to thenut21poker

    agreed

    snap call
  5. charder charder is offline

    Annapolis, MD
    United States

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    Aug 17th, 2007 (8/17/2007 6:36pm) in reply to Tmay420

    i reship quickly
     
  6. MaitreD MaitreD is offline

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    Aug 17th, 2007 (8/17/2007 6:41pm) in reply to Bill Ivey

    Lay it down. I know that some people with far more success than I said to reship, but to be frank I am not terribly worried about mortens25 at this point. I am more concerned with kunkles_221 and jse81. Something feels funny with this. Reverse squeeze by Batista? True, you are being laid pot odds here, but with two people to act behind you, pot odds only get better if you reshove. I think you got to lay this down and wait for better position to get those chips back. Is this crazy???
  7. 983 983 is offline

    Rochester, MI
    United States

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    Aug 17th, 2007 (8/17/2007 6:44pm) in reply to Bill Ivey

    Lay it down as you said he probably has 77, 88, 99, and you will be flipping at best.
  8. RtShrubber RtShrubber is offline

    Houston, TX
    United States

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    Aug 17th, 2007 (8/17/2007 6:44pm) in reply to charder

    If it was just you and villian I'd probably call but with 2 flat callers behind you here I lay it down...i'm more scared of lil behind you.
     
  9. candida candida is offline

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    Aug 17th, 2007 (8/17/2007 6:47pm) in reply to 983

    That's bad advice. If you think he has 77-99 we should def be getting it all in.
  10. charder charder is offline

    Annapolis, MD
    United States

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    Aug 17th, 2007 (8/17/2007 6:47pm) in reply to 983

    lol, if he has that its an insta call.
     
  11. SCTrojans SCTrojans is offline

    Los Angeles, CA
    United States

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    Aug 17th, 2007 (8/17/2007 6:51pm) in reply to Bill Ivey

    I'm really surprised at how many people say instaship. Squeezing with a weak hand is not done nearly as often as people assume, ESPECIALLY facing an UTG raise + two calls. I don't even think I ship AJ if I am him. Also you have to consider the initial flat call (likely not chad) as it could be anything from QQ-AA and AK as well.

    I probably shove... because of how you have described the table... but its not nearly as easy a decision as a lot of the replies think.
     13
  12. candida candida is offline

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    Aug 17th, 2007 (8/17/2007 6:58pm) in reply to SCTrojans

    SC- I think why people feel the hand is maybe an easy shove is because when it gets to mortens, there's roughly 60k in the pot. I'm guessing he feels that he really only has to find a fold vs. Lee generally, and he usually will because I'm sure Lee is raising a very wide range on the FT bubble. I'm sure mortens assumes he will rarely get called by the two flat callers. I think with that dynamic he'll shove an extremely wide range. Obviously some hands in his range have us in bad shape, but we are racing vs. a huge % of thatrange, and with the dead money in the pot, it's an easy reship, imo atleast
  13. Bill Ivey Bill Ivey is offline

    Tucson, AZ
    United States

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    Aug 17th, 2007 (8/17/2007 9:15pm) in reply to candida

    This is pretty much exactly what I was thinking.
     
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