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is 57% v. 43% enough of an edge to push all in?

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  1. sophiea sophiea is offline

    Okemos, MI
    United States

    Posts: 304
    Joined: Feb 05

    Jan 11th, 2007 (1/11/2007 6:34am)

    This has been bugging me all night. Blinds 2,000/4000 with ante 400. I have 100,000 chips in sb with A9. Folded to D, who has 120,000 chips who bets out 20,000. I push all in. He calls with KJ. Of course K flops, but was my push too aggressive? Was folding a better decision? This was a $3 rebuy, stars tourney with over 3,500 players and we were down to 250. Chip leader had 250,000.... My table image was TAG (or so I thought). Looking for feedback. Thanks
  2. MUCK KARDS MUCK KARDS is offline

    Atlanta, GA
    United States

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    Jan 11th, 2007 (1/11/2007 6:56am) in reply to sophiea

    i think thats a good push.... too bad better luck next times
  3. Dyzalot Dyzalot is offline

    Candia, NH
    United States

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    Jan 11th, 2007 (1/11/2007 7:11am) in reply to sophiea

    Without knowing the position or image of the original raiser, it makes it harder to answer this question. However, in my limited experience, many weaker players, such as those one might find in a $3 rebuy, make raises of 4-5X the big blind when they have a big ace. I'm not saying this is a bad push but I would probably lay it down and wait for a better spot unless the raiser is LAG and has shown the ability to lay a hand down after a reraise. There are just too many ways for A9 to be dominated in this spot.
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  4. sophiea sophiea is offline

    Okemos, MI
    United States

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    Jan 11th, 2007 (1/11/2007 7:18am) in reply to Dyzalot

    T.Y. for the responses. In retrospect, I know laying down and waiting is a better play than tempting someone with a double up and chance to get near the chip leader. Those 20% payout tourneys don't pay diddly until final table, so not much difference if you win $39 or $44. To win the $6,000 you need chips and racing in that spot was just gambling and not good poker. As it was, I wanted him to lay down the KJ, as he should have, but that is the problem with $3 rebuys. Not a lot of 2nd level or 3rd level thinking.
    Thread Starter
  5. unfknbelievable unfknbelievable is offline

    Las Vegas, NV
    United States

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    Jan 11th, 2007 (1/11/2007 8:01am) in reply to sophiea

    if its 51 to 49 you push. if your ahead then push! also in these 3$ rebuys you need a million chips just to be at the final table. so i think you should take advantage of your edge when you have a chance. 250 is a long way away from good money.
  6. bfull bfull is offline

    Tarrytown, NY
    United States

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    Jan 11th, 2007 (1/11/2007 8:32am) in reply to unfknbelievable

    when someone make a raise of 4-5x BB, they usually think they have a hand good enough to play and your fold equity goes out the window.

    If you know this guy is playing loose, then it is not a bad play and a good player lays down AJ or even AQ there. It is a $3 re-buy though, so quality of play is not good enough. Save this move for when you know the players are good and you have seen them lay down a hand after a standard raise.

    To answer your original question, yes those odds are more than enough. Matt Mattros wrote an excellent article on this very topic:
    http://cardplayer.com/author/article/all/162/4080
  7. Trent55 Trent55 is offline can i have a title now

    Posts: 8,510
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    Jan 11th, 2007 (1/11/2007 8:42am) in reply to bfull

    never works for me
  8. keebler keebler is offline

    Pequannock, NJ
    United States

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    Jan 11th, 2007 (1/11/2007 10:26am) in reply to sophiea

    There's no way you know he has KJ there before you shove. With that kind of bet, he could have AA and you'd be going home anyway.
  9. THAY3R THAY3R is offline

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    Jan 11th, 2007 (1/11/2007 11:37am) in reply to sophiea

    "In retrospect, I knowlaying down and waiting is a better play than tempting someone with adouble up and chance to get near the chip leader. Those 20% payouttourneys don't pay diddly until final table, so not much difference ifyou win $39 or $44. To win the $6,000 you need chips and racing in thatspot was just gambling and not good poker."

    This is absolutely retarded, flawed thinking. ESPECIALLY since all the money is at the top you should be gambling even more. Are you going to fold into 1st? An edge is an edge, take any you can. In this situation where you "know" you are a 57% favorite, one should be smacked in the face with a shovel if he even considers folding.

    When will you people ever learn?
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  10. Sluggle Sluggle is offline

    Minneapolis, MN
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    Jan 11th, 2007 (1/11/2007 11:42am) in reply to sophiea

    if you have to ask if 57% is a good enough edge at this point in a tournament, you should be forced to turn in your pocketfives memberrship card
     
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