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6.50 18-man PS bubble

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  1. rye rye is offline

    Chutung
    Taiwan

    Posts: 218
    Joined: Sep 07

    Apr 26th, 2009 (4/26/2009 11:10am)

    4 get paid...can i shove ten high here or do i fold sb to CL

    pokerstars Game #27510836662: Tournament #158856646, $6.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level X (400/800) - 2009/04/26 11:03:58 ET
    Table '158856646 2' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
    Seat 1: gusbab (9068 in chips)
    Seat 3: mayfish76 (4240 in chips)
    Seat 5: CandyLack (7668 in chips)
    Seat 7: wr_1 (2536 in chips)
    Seat 9: krav64 (3488 in chips)
    gusbab: posts the ante 50
    mayfish76: posts the ante 50
    CandyLack: posts the ante 50
    wr_1: posts the ante 50
    krav64: posts the ante 50
    krav64: posts small blind 400
    gusbab: posts big blind 800
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to krav64 [Tc 7d]
    mayfish76: folds
    CandyLack: folds
    wr_1: folds
    krav64: ?
  2. Jennifear Jennifear is online now

    Niagara Falls, NY
    United States

    Posts: 10,222
    Joined: Nov 05

    Apr 26th, 2009 (4/26/2009 11:43am) in reply to rye

    Tough spot rye.

    Here's the Nash equilibrium for this spot:

    <TABLE class=simple cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=3 border=1><TBODY><TR><TD>SB</TD><TD><TD><TD>51.1%, 22+ Kx+ Q2s+ Q7o+ J5s+ J9o+ T6s+ T8o+ 96s+ 98o 86s+ 75s+ 65s<<what you should shove </TD></TR><TR><TD><TD>BB</TD><TD><TD>40.0%, 22+ Ax+ K2s+ K5o+ Q5s+ Q8o+ J8s+ J9o+ T8s+ <<what he should call</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

    http://www.holdemresources.net/hr/sn...amp;s8=&s9=

    It really depends largely on what you think his calling range is. If you feel he will call as often as this or less often than this, then shoving is the most profitable play.

    Intangibles that the math doesn't account for:

    - You should shove wider than Nash says to preserve your fold equity in the future.
    - If you shove, get called, and win, you'll have a lot of leverage because you have a chiplead.

    Final analysis:

    Shove if you think he is calling 45% or less, and fold otherwise.
  3. leftygrove leftygrove is offline

    Storrs Mansfield, CT
    United States

    Posts: 2,107
    Joined: Jul 08

    Apr 26th, 2009 (4/26/2009 12:22pm) in reply to Jennifear

    gusbab is a regular. do you guys have any history? does he know you are a strong player also?

    regs will call tighter than usual against randoms in 6.50's, because randoms in 6.50's don't shove enough. so you could probably shove slightly looser than what is recommended. if he is a reg and you are a reg, he might call too lightly just to set the precedent that you can't shove light on his BB.
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