$60 45-man turbo bubble call or fold spot

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  1. ch1pwrecked ch1pwrecked is offline

    United Kingdom

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    Dec 11th, 2008 (12/11/2008 10:13pm)

    1 to the money with 1 particularly low stack and A's Brand plays standard chip leader push, call or fold?

    PokerStars Game #22833229754: Tournament #126417392, $55+$5 Hold'em No Limit - Level XI (600/1200) - 2008/12/12 0:34:31 GMT [2008/12/11 19:34:31 ET]
    Table '126417392 1' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
    Seat 1: Sheriff_20 (12145 in chips)
    Seat 2: kurt23x (5905 in chips)
    Seat 3: maximum123 (6606 in chips)
    Seat 4: jennyfuchs (1815 in chips)
    Seat 5: A's Brand (15530 in chips)
    Seat 6: DNA2RNA (7724 in chips)
    Seat 8: newhope2005 (11480 in chips)
    Seat 9: idem89 (6295 in chips)
    Sheriff_20: posts the ante 75
    kurt23x: posts the ante 75
    maximum123: posts the ante 75
    jennyfuchs: posts the ante 75
    A's Brand: posts the ante 75
    DNA2RNA: posts the ante 75
    newhope2005: posts the ante 75
    idem89: posts the ante 75
    DNA2RNA: posts small blind 600
    newhope2005: posts big blind 1200
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to newhope2005 [Ah Ks]
    idem89: folds
    Sheriff_20: folds
    kurt23x: folds
    maximum123: folds
    jennyfuchs: folds
    A's Brand: raises 14255 to 15455 and is all-in
    DNA2RNA: folds
    newhope2005: ??
  2. nw25th nw25th is offline

    Daejeon
    Korea, Republic of

    Posts: 1,314
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    Dec 11th, 2008 (12/11/2008 10:17pm) in reply to ch1pwrecked

    Playing to win: Call
    Playing to cash: Fold
    Depends on you!
  3. polyballer22 polyballer22 is offline

    Santa Clara, CA
    United States

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    Dec 11th, 2008 (12/11/2008 10:17pm) in reply to ch1pwrecked

    call call call call, then win the tourney
     
  4. calibre908 calibre908 is offline

    Marlboro, NJ
    United States

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    Dec 11th, 2008 (12/11/2008 10:25pm) in reply to polyballer22

    i snap fwiw with your stack, really don't see u being worse than coinflip and aq can be in range too
  5. leftygrove leftygrove is offline

    Storrs Mansfield, CT
    United States

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    Dec 11th, 2008 (12/11/2008 10:25pm) in reply to ch1pwrecked

    edit: that came off rude and apparently i'm wrong. so i apologize sir
  6. fly44 fly44 is online now

    United States

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    Dec 11th, 2008 (12/11/2008 10:32pm) in reply to ch1pwrecked

    SNG Wizard says fold even if he is pushing ATC so I guess it is a fold.

    But before I ran it I would have said call...guess my ICM skills are lacking.
    161 1
  7. mleone3333 mleone3333 is offline

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    Dec 11th, 2008 (12/11/2008 10:41pm) in reply to fly44

    Jen?
  8. Jennifear Jennifear is offline Moderator

    Niagara Falls, NY
    United States

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    Dec 11th, 2008 (12/11/2008 11:12pm) in reply to ch1pwrecked

    He's definitely shoving any two or close to it.

    http://www.icmpoker.com/Calculator.aspx <<Answer can be derived from here

    If you fold, your equity is $362.63.
    If you call, and lose, your equity is $0.
    If you win, your equity is $535.15.

    Therefore, your must win 362.63/535.15 = 67.76% of the time, to profit from calling.

    Assuming he is on any two (a reasonable assumption, you fall 2% short of what you need, mathwise.

    <TABLE class=pptSimTable cellSpacing=0 border=1><TBODY><TR class=pptSimLabels><TH>Hand</TH><TH>Pot equity</TH><TH>Wins</TH><TH>Ties</TH></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=pptSpec>AKo</TD><TD class=pptEV>65.32%</TD><TD class=pptWinsHi>16,227,502,536</TD><TD class=pptTiesHi>428,254,068</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD class=pptSpec>Random hand</TD><TD class=pptEV>34.68%</TD><TD class=pptWinsHi>8,515,112,196</TD><TD class=pptTiesHi>428,254,068</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
    Even if he's not on quite any two, that fact doesn't change much. AKo pretty much holds it's value against tighter ranges:

    <TABLE class=pptSimTable cellSpacing=0 border=1><TBODY><TR class=pptSimLabels><TH>Hand</TH><TH>Pot equity</TH><TH>Wins</TH><TH>Ties</TH></TR><TR class=oddrow><TD class=pptSpec>AKo</TD><TD class=pptEV>64.53%</TD><TD class=pptWinsHi>7,325,182,356</TD><TD class=pptTiesHi>359,221,848</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow><TD class=pptSpec>Top 50% of all hands</TD><TD class=pptEV>35.47%</TD><TD class=pptWinsHi>3,945,564,564</TD><TD class=pptTiesHi>359,221,848</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
    So mathematically, this is a fold by 2-3%.

    The intangibles that ICM does not account for change things a bit:

    - If you win this hand, your true equity might be greater than $535.15, because you'll have the added advantage of being in control and able to bully.

    - If you fold, your true equity might be smaller then $362.63 because A's will continue to play hard on your BB.

    Both of those intangibles for me combined are enough to switch this to a call.

    In any event, calling and folding have about the same EV, in the long run.

    I call, but I wouldn't hate a fold here.
  9. mleone3333 mleone3333 is offline

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    Dec 11th, 2008 (12/11/2008 11:18pm) in reply to Jennifear

    That sums it up. Jen's the best
  10. Jennifear Jennifear is offline Moderator

    Niagara Falls, NY
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    Dec 11th, 2008 (12/11/2008 11:22pm) in reply to mleone3333

    why ty mleone :)
  11. ch1pwrecked ch1pwrecked is offline

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    Dec 12th, 2008 (12/12/2008 12:35am) in reply to Jennifear

    I folded and finished second.

    Im almost certainly going to be vs anything here as he is quite right to push atc, but AK can be easily easily cracked as its about 67% vs atc (i think), 2 wins out of 3 is not good enough for me where im easily pushing high in the money without having to win this.

    I thought the ICM would be borderline here which only encourages me even more to fold because of the other circumstances.

    Thanks for your input though most of you liked the call!
    Thread Starter
  12. Skitz0Frenik Skitz0Frenik is offline

    Zürich
    Switzerland

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    Dec 12th, 2008 (12/12/2008 1:20am) in reply to ch1pwrecked

    CALL
  13. NeverScaredB NeverScaredB is offline

    Vancouver
    Canada

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    Dec 12th, 2008 (12/12/2008 1:34am) in reply to ch1pwrecked

    I snap. I gain so much equity from being able to crush the bubble it's silly. You're really not in a great spot chip-wise compared to the other stacks, I'm surprised the ICM is that close tbh.
    196 2 
  14. TiltinShoes TiltinShoes is offline

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    Dec 12th, 2008 (12/12/2008 2:32am) in reply to NeverScaredB

    ICM-wise I would have assumed this was a fold. I am fairly certain I fold here at any rate. I cry first though.
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