No reads except button is pretty weak as a player. Now, do I instacall this, or fold? You may think folding is crazy, but it may not be bad considering I am covered here... thoughts?

pokerstars Tournament, Big Blind is t400 with t25 antes (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

CO (t2765)
Button (t2800)
Hero (t2740)
BB (t5195)

Preflop: Hero is in SB with K K
CO raises to t2740 (All-in), Button calls t2740, Hero calls t2515 (All-in), BB folds

Final Pot (t8695) (3 players)

After running all the math, I came to my conclusion. What do you guys think.

Here is the link to the original thread.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...230&page=0
&vc=1&PHPSESSID=#Post6438230

This is a great example where math really plays a role in a decision. gl

:-\ I presented some of the math as well.. and I was the one who thought it would be incorrect to call. I did call in real time, as I wasnt sure. I ran the situation after(and I did win the hand, and the sng) and we found that it was a fold. Lots of controversey though... good hand to discuss, although I was hoping you would post your own opinions before checking 2p2.

I haven't seen the thread on 2p2, but just looking at it here, it looks like a fold. I haven't done any math myself, but I would suspect that 2 things make it a fold:

1. You lock up ITM just by folding. You risk a 4th place finish by calling.

2. You would be calling 2 people and seeing all 5 cards. That drastically lowers your chances of winning the hand at showdown. Had only one person gone in, this would of course be a call.

This is one of the extremely few times I'd ever fold KK pre-flop in a SNG.

I'll try to do the math. I dont have much experience, so I'd like you guys to tell me if its right

Given the current stacks ICM shows these values.

CO 0.2254
BU 0.2274
SB 0.224
BB 0.3232

I will put the CO range of hands in the top 25% (66+,A2s+,K6s+,Q8s+, J8s+,T8s+,A7o+,K9o+,QTo+,JTo) and the BU range in the top 7% (88+,AJs+,AJo+)

Against these hands KK will win about 60% of the time.

So. if we fold (and we assume BU and CO had equals stacks of 2800, the one who loses is going to be out of the STT even though if BU wins will have 35 chips left) ICM shows this values.

CO or BU = 6300 = 0.3748
SB (hero)= 2515 = 0.2816
BB = 4770 = 0.3437

If we call and win
SB (hero) = 8765 = 0.4295
BB = 4770 = 0.3705

if we call and lose
we have 0 since we are out

so to calculate the value of calling

0.6*0.4295 + 0 = 0.2577

FOLD > CALL
0.2816 > 0.2577

This is a FOLD to me.

PS: Would this decision change if we have more chips than the CO or the BU (even 5 chips) ?

Burdo, you are spot on. Excellent analysis. You guys that are saying you click so fast etc etc because KK is teh nutz ZOMG ZOMG really need to sit back and think about what your saying, and look at the situation. If you ever wonder why you are not winning players, this is why.

At first I thought this was definitely an autocall, but since your vs 2 hands, and guaranteed ITM, seems like an actual standard fold. Especially like you said earlier, you still have a shot at 1st and 2nd.

Im really terrible at all of the math but doesnt the fact that you'll have most of the chips and a great chance at winning 1st (where most of the money is) have anything to do with it?

who's not a winning player?

EVERYONE at pok 5 is a winning player.

: )

--tc

fold AA? I have read that in a SNG if you held AA in the BB on hand 1, and if UTG goes all in and then EVERY SINGLE PERESON calls it is +ev to fold and (more or less--tie is possible but unlikely) lock up 2nd place.

--tc

I know I've argued for what you've said before Tim. In that situation, I think it would be reasonable obvious that over time, you would make more by folding. First off, your probably about a 35% favorite with AA. So, guaranteed 2nd place money almost every time beats winning that 35% of the time. I won't go through the math.

I guess i'm having issues wrapping my mind around this. But, it does make sense. Your guaranteed money if you fold your KK here. Even though most of us like to play to win, your going home 40% of the time with nothing. But, I think you have to weigh in also some other percentages (maybe it's done, and I missed them being a Friday here).

But, if you win this hand (which you will better than 50% of the time). Odds are, your going to win this thing. So, what's the payout to winning this thing. Where, if you fold, your going to win far less often. Your guarateed money, but far less than what you would take. This has to be factored in also.

If the play is +EV meaning it would be the most profitable option, it's not exactly playing scared. My first thought was auto-call but it brings up a good point for discussion.

This isnt even a contest, it's a fold clear and simple.

You guys need to understand something... this isn't poker that he is playing, it is a SNG.
Yes I know it sounds stupid to fold KK, but you have to get around the cards in a sitaution like this, it is all about what play will make you the most money over the LONG RUN... that play is folding, it's not even up for discussion.

Wave

enph,

I think though your not thinking everything through all the way. You aren't guaranteed third if you fold. Your guaranteed at least third (someone is going out for sure unless they happen to have the same hand, won't happen too often). You will keep playing and still win and finish second some of the time here.

If you play this hand though, there is a certain percentage of the time (arguments have ranged so far from 25-45%) that you will lose, and when you lose, you get nothing. Yes, when you win, your in great position (though, you won't win 100% of the time in this situation). So, I can see logically that it's worth considering a fold here.

Against these hands, KK will win a much greater % than the 60% of the time you suggest.

The play is +cEV. It is not +$EV, as shown by the ICM calculations above.

Since I want money, I fold. Obviously if you like chips more, you can call.