My read on the player is that he solid as has not entered many pots and managed to keep a healthy stack for a while,
however he has recently lost a big pot and is now short stacked,
When it folds to the button i think he shoves a lot of hands i am flipping with my 66 and i dominate some ax hands and pairs,
So what is the best play here?
pokerstars Game #71257803926: Tournament #548011117, $10+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XV (500/1000) - 2011/11/28 1:19:36 ET
Table '548011117 8' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: wojowest (31495 in chips)
Seat 3: missmaree12 (32105 in chips)
Seat 4: samsam_1500 (128640 in chips)
Seat 5: lllothup (17056 in chips)
Seat 6: pupkevicius1 (48593 in chips)
Seat 7: moddha (55046 in chips)
Seat 8: bustuw72 (39966 in chips)
Seat 9: BEERM4N (18429 in chips)
wojowest: posts the ante 150
missmaree12: posts the ante 150
samsam_1500: posts the ante 150
lllothup: posts the ante 150
pupkevicius1: posts the ante 150
moddha: posts the ante 150
bustuw72: posts the ante 150
BEERM4N: posts the ante 150
pupkevicius1: posts small blind 500
moddha: posts big blind 1000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to pupkevicius1 [6c 6d]
lllothup: raises 15906 to 16906 and is all-in
He can profitably shove around 35-40% of hands here, so even if he is shoving that entire range, you have the odds to call, with a little over 50% equity. If you take out some premium hands that he would just min-raise with, you do even better against his range, with about 55% equity.
However, he may be shipping a much narrower range, depending on the structure, his tendencies, how close we are to the bubble, etc. Some players are just really nitty, and this becomes a more marginal spot.
I still think this hand is worth playing, unless you have a particular read on him as being nitty in a spot like this. If you shove, the BB will eliminate you like 2-3% of the time, but I think that's probably a risk worth taking. Then again, you may feel like your edge is big enough and stack deep enough not to want to risk that, in which case a fold makes sense.
idk prolly neither calling or folding is bad.
As you point out there is a small parrt of his range that you are crushing. But as we know you are flipping with most of his range.
My preference is that I just don't like volunteerily callng off/taking flips. I mean when we call there's one way to win the hand.
The oother thing to think about is that there are a ton of players at this level who will just fold A LOT of the hands they should be shoving with. So, imo, if we have a read that leads us to believe that this guy is shoving 100% correctly then I guess a call is ok.
My preference is a fold. Although I'm prolly calling/reshoving with 77.
give him a range, run the numbers, easy game.
advice above seems not good but I haven't played poker in a long time so things might have changed a lot and I now no longer know even what little I used to think I knew.
I called because I thought it is a good spot to gamble, he shows 99 and i win with 4 to a flush.
i think a jam is the best move,i dont like calling to lay down to the bb or have him call n have to play oop.imo its to tight to fold here,ur still slightly ahead if hes two overs and theres an overlay in the pot,u beat smler pairs,and A rags in his range.i dont think its relevant he had 9s or that u won,it just seems correct play
horrible spot to call. especially in a 10$ donkament. im mucking 22-88. Flatting is terrible, you would jam if you choose to play the pot. 88-JJ or ak 70% of the time imo
im sure he can be shoving pretty wide here on the button with 17bbs, even wider if hes somewhat of a regular, prolly shoving every Ax, all broadways, all pairs, and can also be alot of other random suited cards , sc's etc, i dont think callin is bad , i dont think folding is bad, its a gameflow spot for me , im never folding 88
A range of 55+ is 50/50 with 66.Edited By: rayfox111 Nov 30th, 2011 at 09:55 PM
If you think hes shoving wider its a good call.
IDK, off your description he sounds on the nitty side of the fence.
Think I might fold it.
Edit. Now see your reply saying he had 99 and you still won the hand!
woops did not see it was on the button. i still fold tho in a 10$ donkament. better spots.
nah i misread the hh. didnt realize it was a button jam. for me its probably 88+ maybe 77 if hes aggressive or knows what he's doing. But a 10$ donkament im more likely folding. I would feel better calling with those borderline hands if it was a high stakes buy in. Too many ABC players that would never shove light with 16bb.
never folding 4's + kqs+ a9 seems like the type of hands i will be dominating the bottom to middle of his range and flipping with most of the rest.
44 is just gambling needlessly imo
This really comes down to knowing who is shoving. I mean plenty of players are willing just willing to fold their button with lots of hands they should be jamming. And many more are gonna raise small and fold if ppl play back.
So unless we know this player I think all this talk about oh he's gotta be super wide here is a bit nonsensical. And I'm not saying he only shows up with monsters here and I'm not saying that 66 is an ez muck. I'm just saying don't expect any old random to be jamming 50% here or anything like that.
u think he ever folds a pair in that spot?
if yes then fold, if he jams any pair what i think is perfectly standard for pretty much any reg in that spot just snap... BUT its probably my botton range 66+ kq and a8s+....
Might call with 55 (44 semas optimistic idk) and a7+ kjs vs some regs i know, depending on bubble/money/FT/quality of field left/gameflow etc - factor.