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74,492 hands and pkt Aces are rare, to medium rare

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  1. StoneColdNz StoneColdNz is offline

    Wooster, OH
    United States

    Posts: 429
    Joined: Dec 07

    Dec 12th, 2007 (12/12/2007 9:31pm)

    These hands are all from Ultimate Bet .25/50 NL Ring

    I need a statistical major to let me know the probablilities of my 74,492 hands.

    74,492 hands

    AA=278 Times
    KK=303
    QQ=305
    JJ= 322
    TT=362
    99=399
    88=346
    77=396
    66=346
    55=387
    44=385
    33=384
    22=385

    The hand that I get the most on Ulitmatebet.com
    U guessed it.
    72off=715 Times

    I cash out most of the time on Ultimatebet and only reload to get bonus, so I hardly ever watch my pokertracker. I saw this data last night and while I do cash out, it makes me wonder. What are the chances? AA isn't even close to the other hands. I am making 8.06 BB on pkt Aces.

    Kings and Queens seem off the mark.

    They are part of Absolute..... Someone tell me I'm not crazy

    Any comments would be appreciated,

    StoneColdNz
  2. AceRunner AceRunner is offline

    Thailand

    Posts: 3,722
    Joined: Nov 05

    Dec 12th, 2007 (12/12/2007 9:41pm) in reply to StoneColdNz

    wow those stats are scary, i'd advise changing sites
  3. TheRealAjax TheRealAjax is offline

    Monmouth Junction, NJ
    United States

    Posts: 81
    Joined: Aug 07

    Dec 12th, 2007 (12/12/2007 9:44pm) in reply to StoneColdNz

    Yeah that looks pretty fed up, anyone esle have PT stats for UB?
  4. selder1 selder1 is offline

    Victoria
    Canada

    Posts: 701
    Joined: Oct 07

    Dec 12th, 2007 (12/12/2007 9:47pm) in reply to StoneColdNz

    Not a large enough sample for the odds to even out. Odds of a particular PP are ~220-1. You have had 22 1/193, AA 1/267. Odds are determined over billions of hands. Sucks that you haven't had Aces as much as the others but not evidence that it's rigged or anything.
     
  5. acecatcher26 acecatcher26 is offline

    AR
    United States

    Posts: 4,351
    Joined: Jan 06

    Dec 12th, 2007 (12/12/2007 9:50pm) in reply to selder1

    Agreed 74k isnt a great sample size. But it is off pretty good tho...
  6. TheMayor TheMayor is offline

    Boston, MA
    United States

    Posts: 4,699
    Joined: Jul 06

    Dec 12th, 2007 (12/12/2007 10:01pm) in reply to StoneColdNz

    You are actually running good on getting dealt pocket pairs though...you're getting dealt a pocket pair one in every 16.1 hands, should be one in every 16.9!

    But seriously 74k hands is nothing. They say for cash games that 100k will give you a decent idea of your winrate....it won't. Theres 1326 distinct hold'em hands, you gotta think you would wanna get each one at least a couple thousand times before it starts to mean anything significant statistically.

    Edit: Since this thread made me curious i checked mine. This is my most recent 54,597 hands:

    AA-266
    KK-257
    <span>QQ-<span>218</span>
    </span>JJ-237
    TT-252
    99-239
    88-268
    77-252
    66-253
    55-229
    44-254
    <span>33-276</span>
    22-236

    I think the variance in mine is about the same as yours and the sample size is only a bit smaller relatively.
  7. StoneColdNz StoneColdNz is offline

    Wooster, OH
    United States

    Posts: 429
    Joined: Dec 07

    Dec 13th, 2007 (12/13/2007 8:01am) in reply to TheMayor

    I thought everyone would tell me just variance. I'm sure it is, maybe. What I am looking for is someyhing like this.

    This is a test(fake data)

    75,000 hands ~ Pkt pairs should fall into these groups

    325-375 90%
    315-324 376-385 8%
    314 and under 1%
    386 and over 1%

    I use to have a stats class in college and could have figured this out, but I'm sure someone help me out.

    Thanks for all the comments
    Thread Starter
  8. jackaaron jackaaron is offline

    Mansfield, OH
    United States

    Posts: 2,653
    Joined: Dec 05

    Dec 13th, 2007 (12/13/2007 8:37am) in reply to StoneColdNz

    But, you got 9s and 7s more than you should have. Sucks you didn't get AA enough, but I wouldn't call it rare.

    Also, what you said about 72 was misleading...remember that there are far more instances of 72 than, say for example, AA. Here they are listed with none repeating. You should have far more 72 hands than AA...

    Ah Ad

    Ah Ac

    Ah As

    Ad Ac

    Ad As

    Ac As

    7h 2h

    7h 2d

    7h 2c

    7h 2s

    7d 2d

    7d 2h

    7d 2c

    7d 2s

    7c 2c

    7c 2h

    7c 2d

    7c 2s

    7s 2s

    7s 2c

    7s 2d

    7s 2h
  9. StoneColdNz StoneColdNz is offline

    Wooster, OH
    United States

    Posts: 429
    Joined: Dec 07

    Dec 13th, 2007 (12/13/2007 9:56am) in reply to jackaaron

    If it is misleading you just cleared it up. :)

    Be sure to explain why you get

    AA every 221 hands
    AKsuited every 331 hands

    :)
    Thread Starter
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