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78c can be a favourite to AA preflop...

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  1. mbardsen mbardsen is offline

    Holmenkollen
    Norway

    Posts: 961
    Joined: Aug 05

    Nov 10th, 2005 (11/10/2005 10:19am)

    ...if certain conditions are satisfied...

    those are:

    we have 8 players all-in preflop
    and they have the following hands:
    AA
    KK
    QQ
    JJ
    A2d
    A3s
    TJd
    78c

    Then, the pocketfives.com card calculator gives the following win percentages:

    AA is only 14.28% to win this pot whereas 78c is whopping 19.84%

    When playing around with the card calculator to find this astonishing result, and the conclusion from my research is obvious:
    if you can read all the players at the play money table you for some reason are playing at, then call the 7 all-ins with 78c truly based on the +EV!

    For those of you who have as little as me to do these days (only 8 lectures a week) maybe you can take the "mbardsen challenge" and see if you can find a worse spot for AA to be??

    =)
  2. DJLeys DJLeys is offline

    Grand Rapids, MI
    United States

    Posts: 190
    Joined: Nov 05

    Nov 10th, 2005 (11/10/2005 11:21am) in reply to mbardsen

    That's a nice little find. Makes perfect sense once I actually thought aabout it.
  3. BettinBenny BettinBenny is offline

    Hinton, IA
    United States

    Posts: 169
    Joined: Jan 05

    Nov 10th, 2005 (11/10/2005 12:50pm) in reply to mbardsen

    mbarsden,

    The following is what I come up with. I've attmepted to use as few cards in the 4-J range, and as few clubs as possible in order to leave more outs for the 78c, while at the same time removing as many of the suits shared by the aces as possible:

    AhAd
    As2d
    Ac2h
    KdKh
    QdQh
    Jd4h (or vice versa)
    7c8c

    According to the calculator, this yields a 12.5% chance for the aces, whereas it gives the 7c8c a 25.5% chance.

    -BettinBenny
  4. Jack_Ace75 Jack_Ace75 is offline

    Washington, DC
    United States

    Posts: 1,483
    Joined: Aug 05

    Nov 10th, 2005 (11/10/2005 12:58pm) in reply to BettinBenny

    ill take suited connectors anytime with so many people in the pot. most of the big cards are out, so there is a chance to flop a monster with the 78c for either a straight or a flush. from my experiences i've always seen mid-suited connectors crush monster/big pairs way too frequently (ive done that so many times myself - then you have the peeps freak out about it, got to love it). monster/big pairs will most likely hold against one player (maybe two), but usually with more than that, they are going down the hill.
  5. nowapowa nowapowa is offline

    Posts: 7,403
    Joined: Feb 05

    Nov 10th, 2005 (11/10/2005 1:21pm) in reply to Jack_Ace75

    In small buy in tournies when you bust someone's AA, KK, QQ, AK, or even JJ or AQ (MONSTER hands for the 10$ MTT player)...about 2 players at the table think you are a crazy fish and just can't wait to give you action later.

    Often the implied odds actually extend to later hands! YIPEE

    nowa
  6. phatcat phatcat is offline

    Hutchinson, KS
    United States

    Posts: 1,530
    Joined: Apr 05

    Nov 10th, 2005 (11/10/2005 2:27pm) in reply to nowapowa

    AsAh = 1.26%
    AcAd = 1.32%
    2s2d = 11.74%
    KhKc = 15.75%
    4c3c = 13.41%
    5h6h = 15.98%
    9s10s = 19.13%
    JdQd = 15.17%

    doh!

    phatty
    444 11
  7. SevenFour SevenFour is offline

    Buffalo, NY
    United States

    Posts: 139
    Joined: Oct 05

    Nov 10th, 2005 (11/10/2005 2:32pm) in reply to phatcat

    9-10 suited is the best hand to go up against AA w/ anyway

    But just for fun to win:

    AA - 1.50%
    AA - 2.16%
    KK - 11.99%
    KQ - 1.19%
    QQ - 0.00%
    JJ - 10.48%
    JQ - 6.62%
    <span>72 - 15.36%

    However, that's % to win...BOTH AA hands still have the best % NOT TO LOSE, however 72 os is the 2nd best hand not to lose. </span>
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