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99 in bb vs UTG 4x raise

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  1. Sp1ctacular3 Sp1ctacular3 is offline

    Gainesville, FL
    United States

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    Joined: Aug 06

    Nov 16th, 2009 (11/16/2009 10:31am)

    pokerstars Game #35433791574: Tournament #213106786, $4.00+$0.40 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2009/11/16 11:27:22 ET
    Table '213106786 17' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
    Seat 1: Sp1ctacular3 (7795 in chips)
    Seat 2: Gillian2U (3680 in chips)
    Seat 3: johnnast1988 (5805 in chips)
    Seat 4: Moataz (1200 in chips) is sitting out
    Seat 5: Yih. (2155 in chips)
    Seat 6: serj_dawg (1510 in chips)
    Seat 7: bib63800 (6289 in chips)
    Seat 8: zuard (5975 in chips)
    Seat 9: desert_e_45 (2085 in chips)
    desert_e_45: posts small blind 75
    Sp1ctacular3: posts big blind 150
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to Sp1ctacular3 [9c 9d]
    Gillian2U: raises 450 to 600
    johnnast1988: folds
    Moataz: folds
    Yih.: folds
    serj_dawg: folds
    bib63800: folds
    zuard: folds
    desert_e_45: folds
    Sp1ctacular3: ??

    What do you do here?
  2. allin4flush allin4flush is offline

    Portland, OR
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    Nov 16th, 2009 (11/16/2009 11:37am) in reply to Sp1ctacular3

    Ugh. Villain doesn't really have enough chips to set mine. If you reraise, and he shoves over the top, you're pretty much committed. If you call, you're playing out of position and can almost guarantee an overcard or two will come on the flop.

    So unless I have a good reason to think the villain is making some sort of move, I'd probably roll my eyes and fold here. Even if I did think he was making a move, I'd probably fold, since I am not really a fan of racing for half of my stack when I have a ton of chips.
  3. Salamander0 Salamander0 is offline

    Fredericton
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    Nov 17th, 2009 (11/17/2009 10:21pm) in reply to allin4flush

    depends on any reads u have. these spots can be weird. in a $4 tourny im going to ship it in. he could have QJ or something. he has 24.6 bb's so if u 3bet u are effectively 3betshoving 25bb and id be comfortable 3bet shoving 25bb w/ 99 if i think i have FE.
     
  4. hollandshope4 hollandshope4 is offline

    Abiquiu, NM
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    Nov 18th, 2009 (11/18/2009 12:12am) in reply to Salamander0

    Fold
  5. tyson219 tyson219 is offline Moderator

    New York, NY
    United States

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    Nov 18th, 2009 (11/18/2009 11:12am) in reply to Sp1ctacular3

    Fold, unless you've seen the villain open pots from EP with weak hands. With your stack, there's no need to get into a situation that you're either dominated or flipping at best.
     969 
  6. Salamander0 Salamander0 is offline

    Fredericton
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    Nov 18th, 2009 (11/18/2009 11:57am) in reply to tyson219

    i see everyone besides me has said fold. i would fold this if i had a read that 4x means strength but otherwise i wouldnt fold. so if i want to steal blinds from you guys i just have to 4x it and u will fold 96.5% of your hands? if he is just some random ($4 buyin) guy you dont know 4xing means he has a monster, he could have QJ or deuces or some rags.
     
  7. saukendar saukendar is offline

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    Nov 18th, 2009 (11/18/2009 12:48pm) in reply to Salamander0

     
    Originally Posted by Salamander0 View Post

    i see everyone besides me has said fold. i would fold this if i had a read that 4x means strength but otherwise i wouldnt fold. so if i want to steal blinds from you guys i just have to 4x it and u will fold 96.5% of your hands? if he is just some random ($4 buyin) guy you dont know 4xing means he has a monster, he could have QJ or deuces or some rags.

    All true, but the fact remains the stacks aren't deep enough to set mine so a call is out. A 3-bet to ~1800 basicly commits you call his shove so the real choice here is push/fold even if we 3-bet as a tactical option. While I see a good case for both of these, I favor the fold a bit as I see no call to race off ~40BBs just yet. If we play I would rather push than 3-bet as if he calls we'll be OOP and looking at flops with overs most of the time. Then we have the choice of open pushing offering ~2:1 or check/fold (I guess check/call but if we can call then just open push).

    my 2 cents
  8. Salamander0 Salamander0 is offline

    Fredericton
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    Nov 18th, 2009 (11/18/2009 1:05pm) in reply to saukendar

     
    Originally Posted by saukendar View Post

    All true, but the fact remains the stacks aren't deep enough to set mine so a call is out. A 3-bet to ~1800 basicly commits you call his shove so the real choice here is push/fold even if we 3-bet as a tactical option. While I see a good case for both of these, I favor the fold a bit as I see no call to race off ~40BBs just yet. If we play I would rather push than 3-bet as if he calls we'll be OOP and looking at flops with overs most of the time. Then we have the choice of open pushing offering ~2:1 or check/fold (I guess check/call but if we can call then just open push).

    my 2 cents

    yea my original post says i would 3betshove. for me its a push or fold spot. and id push since my read on a random guy wouldnt be damn he has a monster but rather well he might have me crushed but he could def be raisefolding so i will shove and take advantage of my fold equity and maybe even get called by worse.
     
  9. saukendar saukendar is offline

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    Nov 18th, 2009 (11/18/2009 2:27pm) in reply to Salamander0

     
    Originally Posted by Salamander0 View Post


    yea my original post says i would 3betshove. for me its a push or fold spot. and id push since my read on a random guy wouldnt be damn he has a monster but rather well he might have me crushed but he could def be raisefolding so i will shove and take advantage of my fold equity and maybe even get called by worse.

    A matter of style I guess. My history shows these shoves a bit -EV. It isn't about the FE or lack thereof its more about the ratio of bet:stack. All the calls are race or crushed, you'll win some of the races & a few of the ones you're crushed so for 40BB to win 4BB you need to win uncontested between 8 of 9 and 7 of 8 - these days you get more action than that - thats all I'm saying, still it really close.
  10. tyson219 tyson219 is offline Moderator

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    Nov 18th, 2009 (11/18/2009 4:02pm) in reply to Salamander0

     
    Originally Posted by Salamander0 View Post

    i see everyone besides me has said fold. i would fold this if i had a read that 4x means strength but otherwise i wouldnt fold. so if i want to steal blinds from you guys i just have to 4x it and u will fold 96.5% of your hands? if he is just some random ($4 buyin) guy you dont know 4xing means he has a monster, he could have QJ or deuces or some rags.

    It's not about the 4x raise. It's about assigning a range. And your QJ or deuces point is exactly my problem. He could have (and call) with QJ here and we're flipping early in the tournament with a big stack. I'd be more likely to shove if it was a higher buyin where you know some donk wont spew his chips to KJs or some other crap. In this situation without a read that he'll likely fold to the 3bet, I'm staying away from a likely flip.
     969 
  11. saukendar saukendar is offline

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    Nov 18th, 2009 (11/18/2009 4:57pm) in reply to tyson219

     
    Originally Posted by tyson219 View Post

    It's not about the 4x raise. It's about assigning a range. And your QJ or deuces point is exactly my problem. He could have (and call) with QJ here and we're flipping early in the tournament with a big stack. I'd be more likely to shove if it was a higher buyin where you know some donk wont spew his chips to KJs or some other crap. In this situation without a read that he'll likely fold to the 3bet, I'm staying away from a likely flip.

    I disagree, its is about the 4x raise vs. the 40x effective stacks. The only range we care about is his calling range and we can assume all the calls are races or bigger PRs. I expect the push to get called somewhere between 1 time in 6 and 1 time in 7. If the effective stacks are less than 30BBs the push will be +EV. If they are over 50BBs a set mine starts to show a profit. This particular spot the stack sizes are just a bit awkward :)
  12. Salamander0 Salamander0 is offline

    Fredericton
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    Nov 18th, 2009 (11/18/2009 5:39pm) in reply to saukendar

    just want to point out its not 40bb like someone said, effectively its a 25bb shove. big difference. and someone mentioned oh well if he is raising w/ QJ or deuces he might call with QJ and u will be flipping, well if hes calling w/ QJ i imagine he is calling with smaller pairs too so not sure that argument is logical.
     
  13. saukendar saukendar is offline

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    Nov 18th, 2009 (11/18/2009 6:16pm) in reply to Salamander0

     
    Originally Posted by Salamander0 View Post

    just want to point out its not 40bb like someone said, effectively its a 25bb shove. big difference. and someone mentioned oh well if he is raising w/ QJ or deuces he might call with QJ and u will be flipping, well if hes calling w/ QJ i imagine he is calling with smaller pairs too so not sure that argument is logical.

    Point, I miss read the line & worked with 5805 - 25BB = easy shove. You'll still be racing or crushed on the calls but you'll get enough folds for that to be good.

    sry for the confusion
  14. Aarin Aarin is offline

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    Nov 18th, 2009 (11/18/2009 9:59pm) in reply to saukendar

    Fold, IMO. Looks like value, or a steal with cards that dominate you.
  15. yolu yolu is offline

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    Nov 18th, 2009 (11/18/2009 11:02pm) in reply to Sp1ctacular3

    I THINK ITS A CLEAR FOLD

    THE UTG RAISE AND U BEIN OUT OF POSITION
    MOST LIKELY MAKE YOU SMALL FAVORITE OR BIG DOG

    CALLING 450 IS LESS THEN 8% OF YOUR STACK BUT WITHOUT A DOUBT YOU DONT WANT TO PLAY OUT OF POSITION, WITHOUT THE LEAD HOPING TO SPIKE A 2OUTER.......CALLING IS NOT A SUPER BAD PLAY AND NEITHER IS FOLDING..
  16. jhammond10 jhammond10 is offline

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    Nov 19th, 2009 (11/19/2009 8:40am) in reply to Sp1ctacular3

    In a 4.40 with my stack and those blinds, I just lay it down. He's 4xing from UTG, you have little if any FE on a shove, and you aren't in GREAT shape ever. You're in Ok shape sometimes.
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