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An actual poker question

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  1. -Not P- -Not P- is offline

    Farmingdale, NY
    United States

    Posts: 99
    Joined: Mar 05

    Jun 19th, 2006 (6/19/2006 12:27pm)

    I understand the whole concept of set mining and implied odds but I have a question regarding when not to play a low pair. Let's say for instance you were at a table with the same group of players for quite some time now. You have an average stack and a decent read on most players. You have picked up on a betting pattern from the chip leader at the table. When he bets 3x BB he has a nice hand (JJ-AA, AK, AQ) and when he bets the size of the pot he has a pair but nothing he's too confident in (44-88).

    Here's my question. You are in the big blind with 2 2. He raises the size of the pot. Let's say blinds are 50-100. Immediately his raise screams mid pp and it folds around to you. I understand you are a little over 8/1 on flopping your set and he has a great deal more than 8x your call behind him. However it is almost impossible (unless he is incredibly LAG post flop) that if you hit your set he is going to pay you off 8x that bet when there will almost certainly be overcards to his mid PP. SO you essentially have no implied odds since you wont be getting paid off (unless for an unbelievably coordinated flop in your favor of course).

    Is the play to simply call here (since you basically know what he has you should probably call with any 2) and try pushing him around if a couple Broadway cards flop? Or should you fold since the whole concept of set mining is basically out the window since you wont be paid offs the correct odds? Re-raising, i think, is out of the question since you will just be building a big pot with a mediocre holding out of pos. Just hoping to get some actualy poker discussion started and would appreciate some responses.
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  2. GetRich GetRich is offline

    United States

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    Jun 19th, 2006 (6/19/2006 12:38pm) in reply to -Not P-

    Heres a better question.

    You call and the flop come AJ8 (all overs).

    Since you are out of pos. Do you c-bet or check?
  3. lordxixor101 lordxixor101 is offline

    Westland, MI
    United States

    Posts: 6,364
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    Jun 19th, 2006 (6/19/2006 12:51pm) in reply to -Not P-

    Hmmmm,

    Am I reading this right. Your saying that you believe you are losing the hand now (2-2, vs higher pocket pairs), and that you think there is no chance of you getting paid off if you hit your set? The only reason to stay in this hand is to bluff hitting an overcard to his pair (so, if a King or an A hits, you'll bet like you have one and force a fold). So, since you have a read on him, how often do you think you can make money on this play, to how often you're going to lose. This would determine what you should do (play or fold here).
  4. Funkii Funkii is offline

    Cambridge, MA
    United States

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    Jun 19th, 2006 (6/19/2006 12:52pm) in reply to -Not P-

    if you're confident in your read (I've never seen anyone that plays like this for what it's worth) then you should reraise enough to fold out those hands, and if you can't then you should call and take away the pot on the flop (you will lose when he flops a set, but otherwise he will probably fold). If you don't have enough chips for that (or he's bad enough not to fold an underpair on the flop) then you should fold.
     
  5. Malfaire Malfaire is offline

    Princeton, NJ
    United States

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    Jun 19th, 2006 (6/19/2006 12:54pm) in reply to GetRich

    GR, how are you supposed to C-bet if you're calling preflop? Do you mean lead out or check?

    P, I have a meeting but I think it's a great question; I'll respond in a bit. Can you lay out some stack sizes though for Hero and Villain?
  6. -Not P- -Not P- is offline

    Farmingdale, NY
    United States

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    Jun 19th, 2006 (6/19/2006 1:13pm) in reply to -Not P-

    yes, basically I'm saying you are dominated by an overpair preflop but opponent doesnt have a monster hand. I was not in a situation like this but was just wondering when a low pair should be folded preflop (aside from the obvious situations). You do not have implied odds here and dont see how you have actual pot odds. I have in the past picked up tendencies on some players betting their mid pairs blatantly different their their bigger hands (certainly not correct all the time, but a good enough read to be confident in it)

    Lets say for arguments sake both are in no danger of being blinded away anytime shortly. You have 6k opponent has 11k at 50-100 blinds. Oppenent raises to 350 preflop. folded around to you for 250 more. previous poster made a scenario where all overcards come which is very likely, a case can be made on this flop for both calling and folding as well. Why get yourself in a sticky situation like this, basically just entering a game of chicken with the chipleader.

    I personally believe calling preflop since you know his range is a good move but was wondering if that is the case then is there any situation wheree you do not call preflop with a mid pair (except the obvious situations once again)
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  7. jackaaron jackaaron is offline

    Mansfield, OH
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    Jun 19th, 2006 (6/19/2006 1:15pm) in reply to -Not P-

    Your table image will matter in this situation as well.
  8. MuckMe MuckMe is offline

    Muskegon, MI
    United States

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    Jun 19th, 2006 (6/19/2006 1:30pm) in reply to jackaaron

    If you know that he has a mid pair then why don't you come over the top
    and make him lay it down and forget about set mining?

    Oh wait I suck at poker so forget ^^^^that idea.
  9. GetRich GetRich is offline

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    Jun 19th, 2006 (6/19/2006 1:35pm) in reply to -Not P-

    How would you play it Funkii? Fold or what?

    If Ive read my opponent to be weak-tight on previous flops, Im most likely check raising here.

    Anything thing else, Im leading out.
  10. Malfaire Malfaire is offline

    Princeton, NJ
    United States

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    Jun 19th, 2006 (6/19/2006 1:36pm) in reply to -Not P-

    P, I think the crux of your argument is whether it makes sense to get in situations such as this with moderate hands<SPAN class=396092817-19062006> out of position vs. big stacks.</SPAN> This is an interesting scenario as you're making a case where you know you will not get paid off if you flop a set; personally, I just feel that's not reasonable.

    If you know his hand exactly and his ranges, you can raise here to push him off his mid pair. As poker is a game of imperfect information and you can only put him on a range of hands, I would not say this is wise. My $0.02.

    Think of this from a risk reward perspective. If you don't make the 8x,<SPAN class=396092817-19062006> that is unfortunate, but not the end of the world. The loss of the chips you're risking does not significantly impact your chip position strategically. You're extremely deep at 40M. Unless if the rest of the table is taller than you, and you're risking "double up" equity by losing the 250 chips (=500 through doubling through a larger stack), you shouldn't sweat it (even if that is the case, I'd still call).</SPAN>

    <SPAN class=396092817-19062006>My advice: try not to approach this situation completely mathmatically. Yes, I do feel that there are good opportunities for laying hands like this down preflop -- I just don't think this is one of them with the stack sizes. You're getting instant feedback on where you stand in the hand (i.e., did you flop a set or not?), which is why small pairs play well in AND out of position.</SPAN>

    <SPAN class=396092817-19062006>Interested to hear your thoughts.</SPAN>
  11. erbloore erbloore is offline

    Huntington Beach, CA
    United States

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    Jun 19th, 2006 (6/19/2006 5:25pm) in reply to -Not P-

    In my opinion, you're over thinking this. I find it hard to believe your opponent only plays these hands, but let's say that he does, and exactly the way you say. I still say fold.

    Why get involved when you're dominated at all? He's playing too few hands and too predictably. Rather than get you're money in when only a set or a successful bluff will win, let him have this one and pick a better spot when you still have all the advantages, but with a more competitive hand.

    For example, can't you now play q-j, k-10, a-10, etc here, when you certainly wouldn't have before? Why even bother with 2-2? That'd be the hand I would AVOID if I knew all this.

    Flop comes q-8-3. Perfect for your bluff right? Except how often is the middle card going to be his set? Taking advantage of a player this open involves picking your spots.
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