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Here's a sample of over 37,867 hands that I found on the internet....a decent enough of a sample size.......now please no more tin foil hat theories about online sites being fixed.
I've just completed a starting cards, flop, and board analysis over 37,867
hands I've played at low limits on paradise poker. There may be errors in
the calculations here, but I've tried to make it as accurate as possible. If
someone could check the "expected" numbers I've posted, that would be great.
This took a lot of work to finish, and it's been something I've been working
on over the past 1-2 weeks! Hope this is helpful. Here are the results
(warning, lengthy post):
STARTING CARD ANALYSIS:
Total hands you were dealt cards: 37867
All suited starters dealt: 8982 (23.72%)
All suited starters expected: 8910 (23.5%)
All connected starters dealt: 5980 (15.79%)
All connected starters expected: 5940 (15.7%)
Suited connector starters dealt: 1486 (3.92%)
Suited connector starters expected: 1485 (3.92%)
Paired starters dealt: 2264 (5.979%)
Paired starters expected: 2227 (5.88%)
AKo dealt: 363 (0.959%)
AKo expected: 343 (0.905%)
AKs dealt: 98 (0.259%)
AKo expected: 114 (0.302%)
Any AK dealt: 461 (1.217%)
Any AK expected:457 (1.21%)
A's dealt: 157 (0.415%)
K's dealt: 140 (0.370%)
Q's dealt: 184 (0.486%)
J's dealt: 168 (0.444%)
T's dealt: 183 (0.483%)
9's dealt: 167 (0.441%)
8's dealt: 185 (0.489%)
7's dealt: 182 (0.481%)
6's dealt: 192 (0.507%)
5's dealt: 178 (0.470%)
4's dealt: 186 (0.491%)
3's dealt: 162 (0.428%)
2's dealt: 180 (0.475%)
Each pair expected: 171 (0.452%)
FLOP ANALYSIS:
(Note that only data for hands where a flop was dealt are used.
Hands where no flop was dealt are skipped.)
Total hands you were dealt cards: 37867
Times a flop dealt when you were dealt cards: 35691 (94.25%)
When user dealt AK, flops at least one A or K: 154 (34.45%)
expected: 145 (32.4%)
USER HAS ANY TWO SUITED CARDS (dealt 8546 times):
Using both user's hole cards, flopped a:
3 flush:3593 (42.04%) expected: 3554 (41.6%)
4 flush:922 (10.79%) expected: 935 (10.9%)
5 flush:70 (0.82%) expected: 72 (0.842%)
Three cards on the flop make up a:
3 straight:293 (3.43%) expected: 272 (3.18%)
2 flush:4698 (54.97%) expected: 4710 (55.1%)
3 flush:463 (5.42%) expected: 446 (05.22%)
any pair:1470 (17.20%) expected: 1447 (16.9%)
Hand user flops:
High card:4453 (52.1%) expected: 4497 (52.6%)
Pair: 3503 (41.0%) expected: 3453 (40.4%)
Two pair:373 (4.36%) expected: 345 (4.04%)
3 of a kind:107 (1.25%) expected: 134 (1.57%)
Straight:32 (0.37%) expected: 35 (0.412%)
Flush: 70 (0.82%) expected: 71 (0.835%)
Full house:7 (0.082%) expected: 8 (0.0918%)
Four of a kind: 1 (0.012%)expected: 1 (0.0102%)
Straight flush: 0 (0.000%)expected: 1 (0.00589%)
Royal flush:0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.000654%)
USER HAS ANY PAIR (dealt 2196 times):
Using both user's hole cards, flopped a:
Underpair (to flop): 523 (23.82%) expected: 515 (23.5%)
Overpair (to flop): 496 (22.59%) expected: 515 (23.5%)
Set:238 (10.84%)
expected: 253 (11.51%)
Quads: 5 (0.228%)expected: 5 (0.245%)
Three cards on the flop make up a:
3 straight:81 (3.69%) expected: 70 (3.18%)
2 flush:1198 (54.55%) expected: 1209 (55.0%)
3 flush:120 (5.46%) expected: 113 (5.16%)
any pair:376 (17.12%) expected: 376 (17.1%)
Hand user flops:
High card:0 (0.0%) expected: 0 (0.00%)
Pair: 1584 (72.1%) expected: 1578 (71.8%)
Two pair:363 (16.53%) expected: 355 (16.2%)
3 of a kind:230 (10.47%)expected: 237 (10.8%)
Straight:0 (0.00%) expected: 0 (0.00%)
Flush: 0 (0.00%) expected: 0 (0.00%)
Full house:14 (0.638%) expected: 22 (0.980%)
Four of a kind: 5 (0.228%)expected: 5 (0.245%)
Straight flush: 0 (0.000%)expected: 0 (0.00%)
Royal flush:0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.00%)
USER HAS OFFSUIT CONNECTORS FROM 54o to JTo (dealt 2264 times):
Using both user's hole cards, flopped a:
Open ended:219 (9.67%) expected: 194 (8.55%)
Double belly:16 (0.71%) expected: 12 (0.531%)
Straight:38 (1.68%) expected: 29 (1.26%)
Three cards on the flop make up a:
3 straight:77 (3.40%) expected: 71 (3.15%)
2 flush:1224 (54.06%) expected: 1246 (55.0%)
3 flush:132 (5.83%) expected: 117 (5.16%)
any pair:423 (18.68%) expected: 383 (16.9%)
Hand user flops:
High card:1143 (50.5%) expected: 1192 (52.6%)
Pair: 933 (41.2%) expected: 915 (40.4%)
Two pair:106 (4.68%) expected: 91 (4.04%)
3 of a kind:38 (1.68%) expected: 36 (1.57%)
Straight:39 (1.72%) expected: 28 (1.23%)
Flush: 0 (0.00%) expected: 0 (0.00%)
Full house:5 (0.221%) expected: 2 (0.0918%)
Four of a kind: 0 (0.000%)expected: 0 (0.0102%)
Straight flush: 0 (0.000%)expected: 0 (0.00%)
Royal flush:0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.00%)
ALL FLOPS SEEN BY THE USER:
Three cards on the flop make up a:
3 straight:1145 (3.21%) expected: 1137 (3.19%)
2 flush:19715 (55.24%) expected: 19651 (55.1%)
3 flush:1881 (5.27%) expected: 1848 (5.18%)
any pair:6182 (17.32%) expected: 6046 (16.9%)
Hand user flops:
High card:17810 (49.9%) expected: 17888 (50.1%)
Pair: 15068 (42.2%) expected: 15082 (42.3%)
Two pair:1786 (5.00%) expected: 1697 (4.75%)
3 of a kind:750 (2.10%) expected: 754 (2.11%)
Straight:146 (0.41%) expected: 140 (0.392%)
Flush: 70 (0.20%) expected: 70 (0.197%)
Full house:54 (0.151%) expected: 51 (0.144%)
Four of a kind: 7 (0.020%)expected: 9 (0.0240%)
Straight flush: 0 (0.000%)expected: 0 (0.00139%)
Royal flush:0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.000154%)
FIVE CARD BOARD ANALYSIS:
(Note that only data for hands where a river was dealt are used.
Hands where no river was dealt are skipped. This will bias the
data to include only times where a showdown was seen.)
Total hands you were dealt cards: 37867
Total final boards seen when you were dealt cards: 26216
USER HAS ANY TWO SUITED CARDS (dealt 6293 times):
Four flushes flopped: 729 (11.58%)
expected: 689 (10.9%)
When flop four flush, got flush:251 (34.43%)
expected: 255 (35.0%)
Hand user has at river:
High card:1145 (18.2%) expected: 1097 (17.4%)
Pair: 2673 (42.5%) expected: 2683 (42.6%)
Two pair:1350 (21.45%) expected: 1391 (22.1%)
3 of a kind:251 (3.99%) expected: 273 (4.33%)
Straight:318 (5.05%) expected: 287 (4.56%)
Flush: 411 (6.53%) expected: 410 (6.51%)
Full house:131 (2.082%) expected: 140 (2.22%)
Four of a kind: 10 (0.159%)expected: 8 (0.126%)
Straight flush: 4 (0.064%)expected: 4 (0.0663%)
Royal flush:0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.00781%)
USER HAS ANY PAIR (dealt 1685 times):
A set flopped: 197 (11.69%)
expected: 190 (11.3%)
When flop set, got boat or quads:75 (38.07%)
expected: 66 (33.4%)
Hand user rivers:
High card: 0 (0.0%) expected: 0 (0.00%)
Pair: 609 (36.1%) expected: 598 (35.5%)
Two pair:654 (38.81%) expected: 666 (39.5%)
3 of a kind:201 (11.93%)expected: 198 (11.7%)
Straight:33 (1.96%) expected: 32 (1.90%)
Flush: 44 (2.61%) expected: 33 (1.95%)
Full house:130 (7.715%) expected: 144 (8.54%)
Four of a kind: 14 (0.831%)expected: 14 (0.842%)
Straight flush: 0 (0.000%)expected: 0 (0.0160%)
Royal flush:0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.00182%)
USER HAS OFFSUIT CONNECTORS FROM 54o to JTo (dealt 1678 times):
Flopped open ended: 167 (9.95%)
expected: 144 (8.55%)
When open ended, got straight: 47 (28.14%)
expected: 51 (30.7%)
Hand user rivers:
High card:281 (16.7%) expected: 289 (17.2%)
Pair: 749 (44.6%) expected: 717 (42.7%)
Two pair:361 (21.51%) expected: 374 (22.3%)
3 of a kind:65 (3.87%) expected: 73 (4.35%)
Straight:153 (9.12%) expected: 153 (9.12%)
Flush: 31 (1.85%) expected: 33 (1.95%)
Full house:33 (1.967%) expected: 37 (2.22%)
Four of a kind: 5 (0.298%)expected: 2 (0.126%)
Straight flush: 0 (0.000%)expected: 0 (0.0209%)
Royal flush:0 (0.000%) expected: 0 (0.00110%)
ALL RIVERS SEEN BY THE USER:
Hand user rivers:
High card:4686 (17.9%) expected: 4565 (17.4%)
Pair: 11522 (44.0%) expected: 11489 (43.8%)
Two pair:6039 (23.04%) expected: 6160 (23.5%)
3 of a kind:1198 (4.57%)expected: 1266 (4.83%)
Straight:1237 (4.72%) expected: 1211 (4.62%)
Flush: 806 (3.07%) expected: 793 (3.03%)
Full house:675 (2.575%) expected: 681 (2.60%)
Four of a kind: 48 (0.183%)expected: 44 (0.168%)
Straight flush: 4 (0.015%)expected: 7 (0.0279%)
Royal flush:1 (0.004%) expected: 1 (0.00323%)
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Posts: 51
Joined: Sep 05Jan 10th, 2006 (1/10/2006 11:23pm) in reply to casinodee41
Go look for yourself
<A target="_blank" rel="nofollow" href="http://groups.google.com/group/rec.gambling.poker/browse_thread/thread/caa79fd079bee55d/3c3f29d3340e65d7#3c3f29d3340e65d7">
http://groups.google.com/group/rec.gambling.poker
/browse_thread/thread/caa79fd079bee55d/
3c3f29d3340e65d7#3c3f29d3340e65d7</A> -
Posts: 2,345
Joined: Aug 05Jan 10th, 2006 (1/10/2006 11:30pm) in reply to DdotChu
Wow those stats seem pretty dang close to exactly what they should be.. It is almost like they are preprogramed.. You know, like a computer program might be. You know instead of random.
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Rocket Surgeon
& brain scientist
Posts: 12,012
Joined: Apr 05Jan 10th, 2006 (1/10/2006 11:35pm) in reply to misterizx
huh?
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Rocket Surgeon
& brain scientist
Posts: 12,012
Joined: Apr 05Jan 10th, 2006 (1/10/2006 11:39pm) in reply to Adam
lolololololololol
That may be the funniest post I have ever read. Very nice adam. -
Posts: 71
Joined: Aug 05Jan 11th, 2006 (1/11/2006 12:27am) in reply to blance23
THE SAME PERSON GOT QUADS MORE THAN ONCE?
WHAT'S THAT? HE DIDN'T?
OK FOR A MOMENT THERE I THOUGHT U ACTUALLY HAD A POINT! -
Posts: 118
Joined: Apr 05Jan 11th, 2006 (1/11/2006 12:54am) in reply to annodv
the point being proven here, I may be on a limb here, is not the randomness of the Numbers Generator (as that cannot be proven with sheer data), but that online poker is not rigged....everyone gets the same hands the same amount of times, while staying true to statistical probability, over the long run. Personally, that is all i can ask from online poker.
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Posts: 2,192
Joined: Mar 05Jan 11th, 2006 (1/11/2006 1:03am) in reply to Aushoj
what about what hands they pair other hands up with?? is this not possible?? and the time at which they do it(i.e start of tourney or on bubble)?? do these factors not make alot of difference to winning or losing?? (I can feel a business plan comin on loooooool)
oh well obv im wrong and online poker could NEVER be rigged!!
gl all and f tin foil hats!!
anno -
Posts: 362
Joined: Jan 06Jan 11th, 2006 (1/11/2006 1:59am) in reply to DdotChu
ummm....except that the same thing happens live.....the reason you notice and remember these hands is because they are the big ones....you don't whine when u have 67 and run into 78....aces and kings happen in live games too...not that often...the only reason u get to see this happen, is because someone raising aces needs at least queens to be calling, barring an unfavorable board....i bet aces and pocket 5s happens at least as many times, but the 5s get dumped, whereas people don't know how to toss kings preflop...
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Posts: 228
Joined: Oct 05Jan 11th, 2006 (1/11/2006 3:36am) in reply to annodv
i know what you're saying, but in my experience players are a LOT worse live than online.
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I agree....it's a significant difference. Playing online requires some effort.....setting up an account and depositing, etc. When I go to the casino, 2 or 3 people at my table are just trying out another game, after playing craps, slots, or whatever. There is almost always at least one person at any limit table that doesn't know how the betting works.
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Thanks for posting those stats! It won't do much to convince people who think they see a pattern, but it's nice to have something to point to anyway. Anyone who really htinks the sites are rigged can easily do something like this themselves and test their theory. If you think something specific happens at certain times you can test that theory and if it's true you can make giant piles of money.
All that easy money to be amde by simply tracking some hadns and figuring out the pattern to how things are rigged and people are wasting time trying to warn others about it instead? Ridiculous. You conspiracy theory people should be out there making millions from us fools who think things are on the up and up instead of wasting time trying to warn us when we will definitely never learn.
Those of us who believe things are truly random are much too stubborn to believe otherwise, so give up on trying to show us the light and simply take our money!
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