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ADVICE NEEDED ON RUNNING BAD

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  1. lilybeau lilybeau is offline

    Los Angeles, CA
    United States

    Posts: 300
    Joined: Mar 06

    Aug 26th, 2009 (8/26/2009 10:19pm)

    I'd appreciate some input on this problem. CLIFF NOTES AT BOTTOM

    I've been a winning player every year since I started playing (2005). I don't play much on line 'cause ever since UIGEA passed, I suck at on line poker and I know it .

    Up until 2008 I was a winning player by virute of tournament wins/cashes but was a losing cash game player.

    In 2008 I became not only a winning cash game player for that year, but overall...I think cause I finally found my game [9-18 Limit HE,20-40 Limit HE].

    Ever since May, when I won the Commerce California State Poker Champioship HORSE event [I know, thinly disguised brag post] I have run SO bad I don't know what to do.

    At the WSOP, I ran set into set 4 times in cash games. Mind you, it wasn't that I was sucked out on by bad players [except for one hand which I need not go into here]; mostly it was just coolers. Ace high flush vs. 7-4 for the straight flush. Things like that. At the Razz WSOP, I stared at five hours of rolled up 10s, K-K-J, you get the idea...

    The coolers kept happening after the series when I returned to LA for cash games.

    Here is what I've done:

    Played lower stakes
    Played less
    Played at different casinos
    Played small tourneys on line [ok, except for the Razz FTOPS]
    Abstained from playing at ALL [haven't played live in 3+ weels]

    I've had ONE winning session since May 31...and that was for $50 at my home HORSE game.

    I still have most of my bankroll - but it has taken a hit, obviously...

    Is it just a matter of waiting and riding it out? I can't believe all of a sudden I became a bad player after 3 1/2 years of winning [modest winning mind you, my bankroll was around 17K before this largely because I follow Jennifear's policy of continually "paying" myself from winnings].

    CLIFF NOTES:

    WINNING PLAYER HAS RUN TERRIBLY SINCE MAY 31. PLAYS LOWER, PLAYS LESS, PLAYS NOT AT ALL. STILL HAS MOST OF BANKROLL. Any advice?
  2. SigmaBetaRho SigmaBetaRho is offline

    Glen Oaks, NY
    United States

    Posts: 989
    Joined: Nov 06

    Aug 26th, 2009 (8/26/2009 10:22pm) in reply to lilybeau

    Out of all the things you have done, I see no mention of getting a coach, joining a training site, finding friends to discuss hands with.
  3. Chazley Chazley is offline

    San Antonio, TX
    United States

    Posts: 387
    Joined: Aug 06

    Aug 26th, 2009 (8/26/2009 10:35pm) in reply to lilybeau

    Running bad can only be cured by one thing: playing more.
  4. savvy savvy is offline

    Deer Park, NY
    United States

    Posts: 3,815
    Joined: May 05

    Aug 26th, 2009 (8/26/2009 11:42pm) in reply to lilybeau

    re-evaluate your style for the dif games you play. perhaps the market is flooded with lags and you should tighten a bit. who knows but trying something dif cant be a bad thing just experiment lower. still having most of ur roll and not going nuts seems excellent.
  5. pokerchief29 pokerchief29 is offline

    WI
    United States

    Posts: 2,609
    Joined: Aug 06

    Aug 27th, 2009 (8/27/2009 12:09am) in reply to lilybeau

    This system is gauranteed to work 100%. fold all your good hands. Play your hands like 72, Q3 for MAX value! Try to get it in preflop. Your more than likely to get it in behind but if you do manage to hit a few flops and win some pots you can honestly say to yourself that your running good
  6. Jennifear Jennifear is online now

    Niagara Falls, NY
    United States

    Posts: 10,222
    Joined: Nov 05

    Aug 27th, 2009 (8/27/2009 12:18am) in reply to lilybeau

    Running bad can't really be cured, but it is cured at all times. Your cards have no memory. Your cards don't know that you are on a bad streak. Your running bad streak is already over! Start a new streak right now. Keep your mindset right. Playing lower was smart, and keep doing that til you have your confidence back. You need to 100% believe in yourself, and that's very hard to do when everything appears to have gone to shit.

    Keep learning. Try joining a training site with videos. You may find something in your game that you can improve on, and when that happens, you'll have more confidence!
  7. pokerfan X pokerfan X is offline

    United States

    Posts: 456
    Joined: Feb 06

    Aug 27th, 2009 (8/27/2009 12:22am) in reply to savvy

    Variance doesn't divide itself neatly by month or year. And you can't isolate the "run good" win from the surrounding "run bad." It's all part of the same continuum of The Long Run.

    You have to learn to truly understand variance and respect it enough to ignore your short term results (and to not complain about coolers, bad runs of cards, etc, because we all get the same cards in the long run.)

    Short term results are an out and out lie. They can make bad players think they are good, and good players lose confidence. They aren't to be trusted. Far too often we let our results dictate how we feel about our game. Ever notice how few players credit variance when they run hot, but always blame it when they run cold?

    We are never as good as we think we are when we win, and we're usually not as bad as we think we are when we lose.

    The Serenity prayer was probably written by a poker player who understood Variance.

    Which means, evaluate your play, verify that your in game decisions are sound and then ignore the results. If you are making good decisions that's all that matters. Then your win rate will work itself out eventually.

    GL.
  8. PcktAs PcktAs is offline

    United States

    Posts: 201
    Joined: Jun 09

    Aug 27th, 2009 (8/27/2009 12:23am) in reply to pokerfan X

    Run better obv
  9. lilybeau lilybeau is offline

    Los Angeles, CA
    United States

    Posts: 300
    Joined: Mar 06

    Aug 27th, 2009 (8/27/2009 12:27am) in reply to pokerfan X

    Thanks -- good advice from you and Jennifear...I certainly know the serenity prayer as a "friend of Bill"...Ben: You are still invited to my HORSE game -- catch me while I'm running bad :)
    Thread Starter
  10. Doctor Razz Doctor Razz is offline

    Glenside, PA
    United States

    Posts: 300
    Joined: May 07

    Aug 28th, 2009 (8/28/2009 11:32am) in reply to lilybeau

     
    Originally Posted by lilybeau View Post

    Up until 2008 I was a winning player by virute of tournament wins/cashes but was a losing cash game player.

    In 2008 I became not only a winning cash game player for that year, but overall...I think cause I finally found my game [9-18 Limit HE,20-40 Limit HE].

    So you basically had one winning year at cash games (2008), which could easily just have been rungood because playing live means so many fewer hands/hour than online. The long run is veryyyy long (especially in laggy HE games) and even proven great players have horrible, mind shattering downswings. My advice is find out what game you are best at, work to get even better at it, and then play it vs. players who have no business putting chips into the pot most of the time.
  11. allin4flush allin4flush is offline

    Portland, OR
    United States

    Posts: 372
    Joined: Jul 09

    Aug 28th, 2009 (8/28/2009 11:58am) in reply to lilybeau

    I play MTTs so downswings are a little easier to deal with... after all, even the pros expect to bust out of the money most of time in MTTs.

    That being said, I still spend a lot of time analyzing my play. I discuss hands and general trends with my poker-playing friends. I go through hand histories and look to see whether I have played correctly or incorrectly. Of course this isn't as easy to do with live play.

    I think everyone should expect to have swings, and sometimes the downswings will be long and very dark... I lost 1/2 my BR on my most recent, but just a few weeks later I've recouped about 2/3 of my losses.

    The point is, you have to ride it out and use the opportunity to think about your game, look at where you're going and what you're doing. And don't be afraid to admit you are making mistakes! If only admitting them was enough to stop them from happening next time... heh.
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