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basically ryan was telling me with 4 people left in a 9 man sng and you get AKs and a guy shoves in(who has been shoving in every hand) you have to fold it.. I told him to GTFO.. he also said every top 100 pro is mucking this all day on the bubble.. here is my aim convo..
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:31:53 AM):</SPAN> .... wasnt lien =P
<SPAN>DonkeyFish21 (1:31:19 AM):</SPAN> lol.. i wouldn't go by that if it's telling u to lay down aks 4 handed to 1 all in shove
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:33:26 AM):</SPAN> its proven theory
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:33:43 AM):</SPAN> who u think the best online player is?
<SPAN>DonkeyFish21 (1:32:10 AM):</SPAN> mtts.. lilholdem
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:34:12 AM):</SPAN> ask him if you should fold AKs on a sng bubble when the open shover has u coverd
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:34:17 AM):</SPAN> he will say yes
<SPAN>DonkeyFish21 (1:32:24 AM):</SPAN> i'm sure as shit he doesn't go by that
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:34:28 AM):</SPAN> im 100000% positive he does
<SPAN>DonkeyFish21 (1:32:39 AM):</SPAN> LMFAO..
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:34:37 AM):</SPAN> .......
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:34:40 AM):</SPAN> ask him
<SPAN>DonkeyFish21 (1:32:55 AM):</SPAN> gtfo
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:34:56 AM):</SPAN> ask him dude
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:35:01 AM):</SPAN> he plays high stakes sngs
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:35:04 AM):</SPAN> of course he fucken knows that
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:35:11 AM):</SPAN> u cant call off your stack on the bubble
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:35:14 AM):</SPAN> w/ fucken AK
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:35:24 AM):</SPAN> its -$EV
<SPAN>DonkeyFish21 (1:33:50 AM):</SPAN> he would say u would have to be the tightest mother fucker in the world to fold that.. it's just fucking retarded.. it means ur a tight ass who is playing to just get in the money..
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:35:56 AM):</SPAN> do me a fav
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:36:01 AM):</SPAN> ask him, then get back to me
<SPAN>DonkeyFish21 (1:34:39 AM):</SPAN> LMFAO.. i would ask every top ranked player on P 5s and they would say shut the fuck up.. are u crazy?
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:36:41 AM):</SPAN> do it
<SPAN>DonkeyFish21 (1:34:57 AM):</SPAN> lol
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:36:51 AM):</SPAN> of the top 100 ranked players on 55
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:36:53 AM):</SPAN> 100 would say fold
<SPAN>DonkeyFish21 (1:35:12 AM):</SPAN> gtfo man
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:37:10 AM):</SPAN> aight
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:37:14 AM):</SPAN> im not goign to convince u
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:37:21 AM):</SPAN> but when u find out im right
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:37:24 AM):</SPAN> leme know
<SPAN>DonkeyFish21 (1:35:51 AM):</SPAN> lol.. how bout i just post this convo on p5s.. lol
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:37:53 AM):</SPAN> ?
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:37:54 AM):</SPAN> plz do
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:37:58 AM):</SPAN> post this
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:38:05 AM):</SPAN> $200 SnG
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:38:15 AM):</SPAN> dude has 6k, everyone else has 4k
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:38:30 AM):</SPAN> 200/400 blinds
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:38:32 AM):</SPAN> 6k shoves
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:38:35 AM):</SPAN> u have AK
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:38:38 AM):</SPAN> you HAVE to fold
<SPAN>DonkeyFish21 (1:36:46 AM):</SPAN> open shove?? are u kidding u can't fold AK
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:38:57 AM):</SPAN> post it
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:39:00 AM):</SPAN> then get back to me
<SPAN>DonkeyFish21 (1:37:09 AM):</SPAN> lol
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:39:08 AM):</SPAN> im seroius
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:39:15 AM):</SPAN> they will lol @ u for not knowing that
<SPAN>DonkeyFish21 (1:37:35 AM):</SPAN> ok dude
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:39:56 AM):</SPAN> 6k open shover can have atc, litterally
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:40:01 AM):</SPAN> and you can not call w/ AK
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:40:59 AM):</SPAN> calling w/ AKs
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:41:10 AM):</SPAN> in a $200 sng, on the buble, like i jsut explained it (chip stack wise)
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:41:18 AM):</SPAN> is -$30
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:41:25 AM):</SPAN> on average
<SPAN>DonkeyFish21 (1:40:18 AM):</SPAN> lol ur when someone is shoving every hand.. and u have AK on the bubble u are telling me to fold?
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:42:16 AM):</SPAN> well, make it 6k, 3k, 3k, and 2k
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:42:21 AM):</SPAN> like it was in the sng i played
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:42:44 AM):</SPAN> lol
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:42:47 AM):</SPAN> post it =P
<SPAN>DonkeyFish21 (1:41:25 AM):</SPAN> so u say fold AK on the bubble? to someone who has shoved every hand?
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:43:29 AM):</SPAN> no
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:43:31 AM):</SPAN> i say
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:43:37 AM):</SPAN> if you are in 2nd - 3rd place
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:43:42 AM):</SPAN> out of 4 people left
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:43:47 AM):</SPAN> and chip leader shoves
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:43:55 AM):</SPAN> like he has every hand last 100 hands
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:43:58 AM):</SPAN> and u have AK
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:44:01 AM):</SPAN> u have to fold
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:44:10 AM):</SPAN> is what im saying
<SPAN>DonkeyFish21 (1:42:24 AM):</SPAN> lol.. so what kind of hand do u put him on theN?
<SPAN>DonkeyFish21 (1:42:31 AM):</SPAN> AA every time?
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:44:57 AM):</SPAN> he can have 78
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:45:03 AM):</SPAN> 'n show u
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:45:06 AM):</SPAN> u still cant call
<SPAN>DonkeyFish21 (1:43:30 AM):</SPAN> if u wanna win the tourney you have to call.. all fucking day
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:45:46 AM):</SPAN> get back to me when u find im right
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:45:48 AM):</SPAN> =P
<SPAN>DonkeyFish21 (1:44:04 AM):</SPAN> ok.. i'll ppost after this heads up match
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:46:02 AM):</SPAN> aight
<SPAN>ryanb9snowborder (1:46:04 AM):</SPAN> im outty though
Folding AK 4 handed to an open shove is new to me.. can anyone back me up on this? or do i gotta muck AK to win.. -
Posts: 2,186
Joined: Mar 06Oct 18th, 2007 (10/18/2007 5:17am) in reply to hotsas
This would be pretty easy to calculate using ICM. I however, am not the person to do that math.
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Posts: 561
Joined: Nov 05Oct 18th, 2007 (10/18/2007 5:17am) in reply to hotsas
Well depending on chip stacks, I can see where he is coming from.
if you are playing to win, a shove is a good Idea. if your playing to cash, fold. -
Posts: 12,098
Joined: Apr 06Oct 18th, 2007 (10/18/2007 5:22am) in reply to Faaaaaaa-Q
Your friend plays to cash, lil holdem doesn't. LiL calls all day everyday.
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Obviously depends on the stacks, but what "DonkeyFish21" is missing (and hopefully can learn from this post) is that the decision in this case has absolutely nothing to do with what you put your opponent on. In many situations, it can be shown that if your opponent has ATC (any two cards) which is the assumption here, folding AK suited four-handed to the chip leader in a SNG that pays 3 is the mathematically correct play.
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Posts: 193
Joined: Mar 07Oct 18th, 2007 (10/18/2007 5:33am) in reply to Adam
ok so i ask again out of all the ranked pros, who is folding AK to a guy who has shoved every hand on the bubble..? Folding AK here is soooooo weak to me.. quite frankley i don't care if it's "mathmatically" correct to fold.. If you call and he sucks out that's just UL.. I quote Tony Dungy.. "You play to win the game."
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Posts: 14,473
Joined: May 05Oct 18th, 2007 (10/18/2007 5:36am) in reply to hotsas
I play poker to make money, not to "win the game". Depending on the chip stacks, it is usually +EV to make the fold here.
**edit** that was Herm Edwards, not Tony Dungy. -
Posts: 2,186
Joined: Mar 06Oct 18th, 2007 (10/18/2007 5:44am) in reply to Adam
I tried to do an ICM model on why folding is mathematically correct, but I was missing something.
Personally, I would PM jennifear and ask her to break this down for you. Your friend is correct though, from a math POV, folding is probably the best option. Depending on the stack sizes, there will be instances where folding anything but AA is the mathematically correct play. -
Posts: 829
Joined: Feb 05Oct 18th, 2007 (10/18/2007 5:44am) in reply to hotsas
Not a top pro, but i call alll day every day and twice on sunday!
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Posts: 2,027
Joined: Jan 07Oct 18th, 2007 (10/18/2007 5:46am) in reply to hotsas
umm Dyzalot is a top player
folding AK there is correct sometimes although cant say I would -
Posts: 829
Joined: Feb 05Oct 18th, 2007 (10/18/2007 5:47am) in reply to AllYourChips
i said im not a top pro son
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Posts: 193
Joined: Mar 07Oct 18th, 2007 (10/18/2007 5:48am) in reply to AllYourChips
Ok but i never said anything about it being mathmatically correct to fold.. it may be, what i'm saying is that most, if not all top ranked pro's are gonna call there.. maybe i'm wrong but if you don't call an all in shove in this situation with AKs then what are u waiting for.. you only get aces so often..
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Posts: 2,186
Joined: Mar 06Oct 18th, 2007 (10/18/2007 5:49am) in reply to hotsas
I think you might be missing the point a little bit here and again, this whole discussion depends greatly on stack sizes and just how short the short stack is.
But basically, when the chip equity you give up by the possibility of not making the money, exceeds the amount of money you'll make in the long run by calling, then you have to fold.
Playing to win isn't really the focus here. It's more about the long term expected value of the particular hand. -
Posts: 174
Joined: Aug 07Oct 18th, 2007 (10/18/2007 5:52am) in reply to hotsas
not a top ranked pro...here's a guess...you're waiting for...the bubble to pass?
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Posts: 14,473
Joined: May 05Oct 18th, 2007 (10/18/2007 5:57am) in reply to intermediary
Waiting for the bubble to pass in a MTT and a SnG are two different things. You try to win MTTs. You try to cash in SnGs. Obviously winning is better, but the difference in money won between cashing or winning is small in a SnG compared to a MTT. SnG strategy is different than MTT strategy in this regard.
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Most, if not all top pros understand the math of the game and use it to win money. Why would you want to ignore the math?
Certainly any top SNG player understands ICM and why it's necessary to fold in this situation.
MTT players may not all fully understand these concepts, but in SNGs, they are absolutely paramount. In this day and age, the very best SNG players have ROI well under 10%. NOBODY is crushing the games any more. You can't afford to make little mistakes that take away your long term value. -
Posts: 829
Joined: Feb 05Oct 18th, 2007 (10/18/2007 6:03am) in reply to Adam
SNG sattelite its a fold sometimes, But im never folding in a cash sng. Not once!
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Posts: 2,186
Joined: Mar 06Oct 18th, 2007 (10/18/2007 6:05am) in reply to intermediary
Hostas -
I've tried to respond to your thread with as much knowledge about the situation as I have. I've offered my POV and even suggested talking to jennifear, somebody who has much knowledge in this specific type of scenario.
With that being said, it's really concerning that you choose to disagree with those who offer a different opinion than the one you have. Isn't that the whole point of a forum, to discuss? Furthermore, it's even more pathetic to watch you take a cheap shot at somebody's biggest cash when you know nothing about them. My biggest cash in my profile is like $400, but I've made over 125k in the last 3 years playing poker. Are you going to take a shot at me?
If you are going to post something, and then totally disregard those with an opinion other than yours, then you shouldn't post. Dyzalot said it best when you play poker to make money. You do not make money by finishing 4th place in a 1 table sng. Therefore, you can use a mathematical approach to determine which is the best play in order for you to make money in the long run. It doesn't matter if you are playing to win, it matters which option gives you the best chance to make money.
If you are going to only play 1 sng in your life, then yes, call with AK. If you play on any sort of a regular basis, then the math dictates you need to fold here. Stop talking about "winning" and disregarding proven mathematical analysis, and open your mind to a different point of view. -
Posts: 1,290
Joined: Nov 06Oct 18th, 2007 (10/18/2007 6:06am) in reply to intermediary
hotas what your not under standing is in a four handed game 3 get paid format your cards dont matter id rather fold AKss to the chipleader there and shove 23off the next hand into a stack shorter than me.its about survival not that you have AKss.sng are not REAL poker there a game in itself.hop outside your shell and think for i minute you cant win the sng if you dont place first right?you call with AKss there your only a 67% fav againest 23off for your life and get paid 0$ if you lose, cant win that way can you. now once your three handed in the money sure it a call youre getting paid and NOW you go for first but you have to get to 3rd before you can win bro GL
eddie24b<----not a nit either -
Posts: 829
Joined: Feb 05Oct 18th, 2007 (10/18/2007 6:08am) in reply to Big Swing
Allyourchips, I think you have it backwards. If you are playing one sit n go lifetime its more of a fold then if you are regular basis sng player.
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Posts: 2,186
Joined: Mar 06Oct 18th, 2007 (10/18/2007 6:13am) in reply to Big Swing
I disagree here, but I see where I could be wrong.
If this is the only sng I'm ever going to play, then I'm probably calling with AKs because I'm way ahead of his range and will probably be a favorite to win the pot and double up. I'm not worried about the long term -EV of calling because I'm just hoping to get it in as a 3-1 favorite this one time.
Maybe a poor example, but I was trying to illustrate not caring about the long term EV. -
Posts: 1,207
Joined: Aug 06Oct 18th, 2007 (10/18/2007 6:16am) in reply to hotsas
Just put the exact numbers in pokerstove and have your answer given to you.
This argument can be answered by a computer program, and prove who is actually right.
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