This isn't an attack...I am looking to learn something and if this is a call I'd like to know why. Thanks...and gl in the million Ajk.

EDIT: Brilliant math thanks to Gags.

unless ajk has some read that this guy is jamming nearly every hand in the deck, then we need to give him some sort of range...if we assign him the range of the top 50% of the deck (which is really really really wide, most randoms will not shove this wide, even for 5bb)...then our 52s is still not quite a call. it's really close, but mathematically, it's a fold.

it's 26898 to win 47298...therefore we need 36.24% equity to make this a break even call

Hand 0: 64.742% 64.04% 00.70% 2820457012 30797108.00 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T8o+, 98o }
Hand 1: 35.258% 34.56% 00.70% 1521994660 30797108.00 { 52s }

we don't have the odds vs this extremely wide range. yes, it's close...but we dont' even know if the guy is shoving this wide...therefore calling is going to be -cEV

pokerstars Game #42536205491: Tournament #305020010, $200+$15 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XVIII (3000/6000) - 2010/04/11 21:23:51 ET
Table '305020010 162' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Geraldinjo79 (152720 in chips)
Seat 2: hotyogi (55629 in chips)
Seat 3: JBlaze20 (130950 in chips)
Seat 4: G�rtler (33498 in chips)
Seat 5: werpennst23 (139653 in chips)
Seat 6: YIKESS111 (112184 in chips)
Seat 7: AJKHoosier1 (255638 in chips)
Seat 8: Broberti (66464 in chips)
Seat 9: GetStackd101 (269214 in chips)
Geraldinjo79: posts the ante 600
hotyogi: posts the ante 600
JBlaze20: posts the ante 600
G�rtler: posts the ante 600
werpennst23: posts the ante 600
YIKESS111: posts the ante 600
AJKHoosier1: posts the ante 600
Broberti: posts the ante 600
GetStackd101: posts the ante 600
YIKESS111: posts small blind 3000
AJKHoosier1: posts big blind 6000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Broberti: folds
GetStackd101: folds
Geraldinjo79: folds
hotyogi: folds
JBlaze20: folds
G�rtler: raises 26898 to 32898 and is all-in
werpennst23: folds
YIKESS111: folds
AJKHoosier1: calls 26898
*** FLOP *** [4d Kh 6d]
*** TURN *** [4d Kh 6d] [4c]
*** RIVER *** [4d Kh 6d 4c] [As]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
AJKHoosier1: shows [2d 5d] (a pair of Fours)
G�rtler: shows [Kc Tc] (two pair, Kings and Fours)
G�rtler collected 74196 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 74196 | Rake 0
Board [4d Kh 6d 4c As]
Seat 1: Geraldinjo79 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: hotyogi folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: JBlaze20 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: G�rtler showed [Kc Tc] and won (74196) with two pair, Kings and Fours
Seat 5: werpennst23 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: YIKESS111 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: AJKHoosier1 (big blind) showed [2d 5d] and lost with a pair of Fours
Seat 8: Broberti folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: GetStackd101 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

AJK figures villain is shoving big cards.. he has a steel wheel draw + all the low cards he can get for a straight/pair.. Not sure why you are askign questions here.. hes going to usually at least flop an open ender.. maybe even a flush darw.. so why wouldnt he call?

yes its a call, because math says so

so whats that mean he has to win like 35% of the time right?

i cant explain the math tbh i just know i call there everytime to. doubt its bad and if it is it cant be that bad

 

Originally Posted by mastaofkings

I believe it was 26.6k to call a 47k pot...that's not the right odds to call right?

The math is just off a tiny bit so it is -EV this hand, but I think it is +EV in the long run.

People will be less inclined to shove on him in the future and people might see his call, think he is crazy, and will give him more action in the future.

Good response...can you correct my math in the edited OP?

your shoving any two, he has any two, with dead money. its simple mathematics

if u guy is having chip, den make a cawl, jeebus. have heart an u will go far!

 

Originally Posted by mastaofkings

And now I'm definitely confused. Can you explain the math that makes it a fold Gags? I think everyone would appreciate it. jw.

unless ajk has some read that this guy is jamming nearly every hand in the deck, then we need to give him some sort of range...if we assign him the range of the top 50% of the deck (which is really really really wide, most randoms will not shove this wide, even for 5bb)...then our 52s is still not quite a call. it's really close, but mathematically, it's a fold.

it's 26898 to win 47298...therefore we need 36.24% equity to make this a break even call

Hand 0: 64.742% 64.04% 00.70% 2820457012 30797108.00 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T8o+, 98o }
Hand 1: 35.258% 34.56% 00.70% 1521994660 30797108.00 { 52s }

we don't have the odds vs this extremely wide range. yes, it's close...but we dont' even know if the guy is shoving this wide...therefore calling is going to be -cEV

not a call if your shoving unexploitably

<span>equity </span> <span>win </span> <span>tie </span> <span> pots won </span> <span>pots tied</span>

<span>Hand 0: </span> <span>64.985% </span> <span>64.15% </span> <span>00.83% </span> <span> 611849561 </span> <span> 7951451.00 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q5s+, J7s+, T6s+, 96s+, 85s+, 75s, 65s, 54s, A2o+, K6o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o, 98o }</span>

<span>Hand 1: </span> <span>35.015% </span> <span>34.18% </span> <span>00.83% </span> <span> 326000865 </span> <span> 7951451.00 { 5d2d }</span>

that being said its retardedly close and not thread-worthy.

 

Originally Posted by fly44

 

Originally Posted by Gags30

it's 26898 to win 47298...therefore we need 36.24% equity to make this a break even call

How do you figure this out, I have always wondered but just kind of used the 2-1 rule because I didnt know how to figure it out exactly.

THIS. I always have the same problem.

47928/26898 equals 1.7818. So 1.7818 to 1. Add those to get 2.7818 to 1 and divide one by 2.7818=35.9 percent

its stars, u cant fold any cards with dead money, ez call getting 1.1 to 1 too

 

Originally Posted by AJKHoosier1

prty much a completely irrelevant decision but i wanted to gamble

calling off 10% of your stack in the softest tourney ever created in a spot which is for sure -cev especially vs random sunday mil super nit stack off range is certainly not an irrelevant decision and one that is prob costing you a decent amount of $