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IS AK always the nuts or can you fold preflop? Thoughts please.

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  1. Garnet Garnet is offline

    Lynbrook, NY
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    Jan 31st, 2008 (1/31/2008 10:34am)

    <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>friend had this hand few mins ago in the money in the ub 30r some different opinions came in from how he played it....what's your thoughts here blinds 1500/3000

    Hand #50332382-227 at Wed19K10pm-001 (No Limit tournament Hold'em)
    Started at 31/Jan/08 01:53:42

    motorhomeman is at seat 0 with 61780.
    RandalFlowers is at seat 1 with 144720.
    scarface007 is at seat 2 with 63225.
    Kush99 is at seat 3 with 58700.
    saigon rock is at seat 4 with 38510.
    crf250rider04 is at seat 5 with 54475.
    Hunt86 is at seat 6 with 117775.
    michele1024 is at seat 7 with 47980.
    T Laing is at seat 9 with 100255.
    The button is at seat 5.

    motorhomeman posts ante (300).
    RandalFlowers posts ante (300).
    scarface007 posts ante (300).
    Kush99 posts ante (300).
    saigon rock posts ante (300).
    crf250rider04 posts ante (300).
    Hunt86 posts ante (300).
    michele1024 posts ante (300).
    T Laing posts ante (300).
    michele1024 posts the small blind of 1500.
    T Laing posts the big blind of 3000.

    motorhomeman: -- --
    RandalFlowers: -- --
    scarface007: -- --
    Kush99: -- --
    saigon rock: -- --
    crf250rider04: Ad Ks
    Hunt86: -- --
    michele1024: -- --
    T Laing: -- --

    Pre-flop:

    motorhomeman raises to 6000. RandalFlowers re-raises
    to 17000. scarface007 folds. Kush99 folds. saigon
    rock folds.

    Moth had been min raising first in frequently and randall was big chip leader. Randal is a well known, good player- solid. Questions are- if crfrider pushes for 54k- about 33 more than Randal's reraise, is there fold equity? and 2. is there an argument for crfrider folding AK here, and why?

    By the way, Randal, at the end of the day had JJ (but that should not influence your decision about what you do with AK in crfrider's spot when facing an utg min-raise and a reraise by second from utg).

    Your thoughts please.
    </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
     
  2. Sonofa_nh Sonofa_nh is offline

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    Jan 31st, 2008 (1/31/2008 10:49am) in reply to Garnet

    okay...here's my two pennies. Utg mini raise really means nothing to me other than something like 55-77. Once Utg+1 reraises he's defining strength. One, he's in early position with the raise and two, he's chip leader and really has no reason to put moves on players at this stage in the game with his chip stack. Crf is sitting roughly on 18 bb's. I personally don't see there being fold equity here because with the reraise from his spot he's obv got a hand that he isn't going anywhere with.

    Crf has the right idea......he has 2 moves, he's either shoving or folding. But it's one of those situations, you know he's calling and whether or not u want to take a race. That's ur best case scenerio. I doubt he makes that raise with anything less than 10s. AA-QQ i don't think will just call a mini raise i think he plays it the same way. So the best case scenerio is QQ-10 10.

    anyway....it's a really tough spot for crf. Me personally i probably lean towards a fold there but i don't disagree with the shove either. he's in the money and if he's trying to win and looking to race it's not a terrible spot to do so.
     
  3. dscroggs4 dscroggs4 is offline

    Hebron, KY
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    Jan 31st, 2008 (1/31/2008 10:50am) in reply to Garnet

    my thoughts as they were then are as follows.... you have a 54K stack below AVG stack (this was a rebuy) at this point in the tourney and have a chacne of increasing your stack by 50% with a chance of not being called do u have much fold equity? no however, randall is a very well known solid player....and we have a n UTG MIN RAISE.... an UTG +1 RERIASE this shove's range is QQ+ AK 4 hands randall's preflop reraise range in my opion is 99+ AQ+ not to mention calling with less than QQ is the wrong call for randall if i'm him i'm probably folding QQ here too because of crf's range he has represented a top 4 hand and nothing but.... pretty sure there are 16 people left in the tourney at this time....and crf was probably around 10-12th.... this is chance to... A. increase your stack by 50% if uncalled or B. win a race and be a top 3 stack.....

    INSTA PUSH :)
     
  4. DonkDon DonkDon is offline

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    Jan 31st, 2008 (1/31/2008 10:50am) in reply to Garnet

    I would change the post title to start. So many factors in this hand it's hard to say what the "correct" play is. I could see myself raising quite often and folding too. I don't think flat calling is correct because then I think you won't very likely get paid off if you flop a hand. You may also be sharing cards with the min raiser. These are the kind of spots I don't like and would likely just shove and be happy if randall folds or doesn't flip over aa or kk lol.
  5. Sonofa_nh Sonofa_nh is offline

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    Jan 31st, 2008 (1/31/2008 10:53am) in reply to dscroggs4

    he's not folding preflop...your best case scenerio is QQ-JJ.
     
  6. SpadeSkillz SpadeSkillz is offline

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    Jan 31st, 2008 (1/31/2008 10:53am) in reply to Garnet

    i say fold cuz 1. he knows he's getting called by a bigger stack and has ace high
    2. M will still be 7ish with a muck and have fold equity on the whole table still preflop
    3. you are possibly sharing cards and hoping for a 5 outer or wild straight
    4. like said above most of time some1 shows big strength vs an utg raiser that greatly narrows their range of hands
     
  7. TheVillageGrinder TheVillageGrinder is offline

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    Jan 31st, 2008 (1/31/2008 10:56am) in reply to Garnet

    No FE. He'd be getting nearly 2:1 to call. With an M of 7.5, getting close to the time you wanna gambol.
  8. Garnet Garnet is offline

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    Jan 31st, 2008 (1/31/2008 10:58am) in reply to DonkDon

    I agree that there are a lot of factors here. But I wanted a title that would incite a discussion- and the thought of folding AK is a very original for many online players---- hence the title =)
     
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  9. DonkDon DonkDon is offline

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    Jan 31st, 2008 (1/31/2008 11:00am) in reply to TheVillageGrinder

    I think Randall being a solid player he would def. reraise a slightly wider range then 10-10 or greater.
  10. TheVillageGrinder TheVillageGrinder is offline

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    Jan 31st, 2008 (1/31/2008 11:01am) in reply to dscroggs4

    Wouldn't he be increasing his stack by 100% plus when Randal calls?
  11. Garnet Garnet is offline

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    Jan 31st, 2008 (1/31/2008 11:02am) in reply to TheVillageGrinder

    I absolutely agree, there is no way that Randal can fold here. He is getting 2 to 1 plus he still has 100k and nearly chipleader if he loses.
     
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  12. dscroggs4 dscroggs4 is offline

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    Jan 31st, 2008 (1/31/2008 11:03am) in reply to Sonofa_nh

    well i'm putting his range on 99+ AQ plus so i think he folds 99-TT and AQ 3 of the 8 hands i'm putting him on.... do u disagree with his range? and think he's calling with AQ? there? or 99?
     
  13. Stupor_Mundi Stupor_Mundi is offline

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    Jan 31st, 2008 (1/31/2008 11:07am) in reply to Garnet

    Given the reads given above, a push here is standard. It allows you to push the standard min-raiser out of the hand and possibly get the CL to fold if he is taking advantage of that tendency. I could see him making this raise with AA or KK, but more likely you will be in a race or possibly a fave. This push would be more obvious with a bigger stack, because you could create more fold equity, but I still think it is pretty standard if your reads are correct.

    The only way I'm not pushing them in here is if my stack were 115-120 K +, in which case I might care to take a flop with the CL and fold if I miss.
  14. dscroggs4 dscroggs4 is offline

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    Jan 31st, 2008 (1/31/2008 11:07am) in reply to Garnet

    he is getting 2-1 but crf is representing a range of QQ+/AK... so it's likely he's 4-1 or 50/50 at best with 99-QQ ..... therefore the odds aren't in his favor ..... fyi this isn't a cash game its a tournemt chips are very valuable .... if you find yourself calling off 30% of your stack when u think "u have to" based on the math.... your in trouble
     
  15. TheVillageGrinder TheVillageGrinder is offline

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    Jan 31st, 2008 (1/31/2008 11:12am) in reply to dscroggs4

    Good post. So I guess there is FE. Thoughts on dscroggs breakdown here? Randall should/would fold to shove from the hero? How does this change if the OR calls? Assuming that RAndall would lean more toward calling then, eh.
  16. Garnet Garnet is offline

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    Jan 31st, 2008 (1/31/2008 11:12am) in reply to dscroggs4

    The fact remains that there is a good chance that Randal has the best hand and he still has 33+ bbs if he loses the hand. And if he wins that hand, for the same reasons crf pushed, he becomes a huge force to be reckoned with, now having over 200k in chips. I agree chips are very valuable and even with those odds, there are some players who are tight obvious that are not pushing without aa or kk in that spot, and only to those players, i think you can fold jj. But for an experienced online player with much success, crf's range of re-pushing is wider.
     
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  17. SpadeSkillz SpadeSkillz is offline

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    Jan 31st, 2008 (1/31/2008 11:16am) in reply to Stupor_Mundi

    leader is folding 0.0000% of hands here to a shove
     
  18. dscroggs4 dscroggs4 is offline

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    Jan 31st, 2008 (1/31/2008 11:16am) in reply to TheVillageGrinder

    fold is hand dependent ....crf has represented QQ KK AA AK nothing but, crf is good solid player and had good image no way he has anything but those 4 hands..... so if randal is on 99+ AQ + which is what i would say is his range here.... he can fold 3 of 8 hands 99 TT AQ....after all it is 30% of his stack to call here and he can easy fold and still be chip leader he doesn't need to gamble with a likely dominated hand ...he called with JJ but did so timidly.....the other 3 hands i think he mucks so to me he folds 3 of his 8 possible hands .... just my personal thoughts :)
     
  19. TheVillageGrinder TheVillageGrinder is offline

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    Jan 31st, 2008 (1/31/2008 11:23am) in reply to SpadeSkillz

    According to dscroggs there is a 37.5% chance he's folding.
  20. dscroggs4 dscroggs4 is offline

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    Jan 31st, 2008 (1/31/2008 11:24am) in reply to Garnet

    UTG MIN RAISE UTG + 1 RERIASE that appears to be pot committed ...... u think crf's range is wider than QQ KK AA AK? ......hmmm
     
  21. TheVillageGrinder TheVillageGrinder is offline

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    Jan 31st, 2008 (1/31/2008 11:24am) in reply to dscroggs4

    Very good. SO...with some FE and a chance that he will have the best hand when all the cards fall, a shove here is a good play?
  22. Cmoney3 Cmoney3 is offline

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    Jan 31st, 2008 (1/31/2008 11:25am) in reply to TheVillageGrinder

    shooooooooooooooove
  23. SpadeSkillz SpadeSkillz is offline

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    Jan 31st, 2008 (1/31/2008 11:27am) in reply to TheVillageGrinder

    i don't think ive ever seen a leader who has already reraised an utg raise and only needs to put in 37 k more to win 74k evvvvvvvvver fold in this spot regardless what hand he flips over
     
  24. crf250rider04 crf250rider04 is offline

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    Jan 31st, 2008 (1/31/2008 11:29am) in reply to TheVillageGrinder

    heres my opinion........i didnt put him on aa or kk....and im willing to race for top 3 stack......thats all
  25. dscroggs4 dscroggs4 is offline

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    Jan 31st, 2008 (1/31/2008 11:31am) in reply to crf250rider04

    short and simple...gotta love this cat
     
  26. vtbeach11 vtbeach11 is offline

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    Jan 31st, 2008 (1/31/2008 11:40am) in reply to Garnet

    Well since you said motor had been min-raising in UTG a lot so could Randal be stealing here? He still has seven people behind him. If you think he is stealing and you push you are giving him 2.25:1 to call you for 30% of his stack. Even though there are only three people behind you, two of them have over 100k, but they would still need a hand to play. It basically all comes down to whether or not you think Randal will gamble. His stack will be a little under 100k if he loses the hand, plenty to play with so I could see him making the call. On a different token, your M is only 7-8 so you don't you think you might want a call so you can double up? You are already in the money so why not try to put yourself into position for the win? I think I would push here.
  27. the_snail03 the_snail03 is offline

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    Jan 31st, 2008 (1/31/2008 11:50am) in reply to vtbeach11

    push here and twice on sundays
     
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