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Ok, so once you have an M of around 4.5 to 5.5 do you ever push with decent hands if someone made a 3X raise from ep? I know I'm definitely pushing if he doesn't make his raise, but I'm thinking I shouldn't have pushed here.
Scenario: Late stages of 1300 person $5 mtt 44 players left.
blinds $1500/3000 + $150
initial pot $5850
Seat 1: 23,537
Seat 2: 35,949 in chips
Seat 3: 21,196 in chips
Seat 4: ME 32,390 in chips ATo M=5.5
Seat 5: 72,598 in chips
Seat 6: SB 35,803 in chips
Seat 7: BB 53,887 in chips
Seat 8: 31,398 in chips
Seat 9: 13,780 in chips
Seat 2 raises to $9000, I push, folds to 2 and he takes his entire time bank to call with AQ.
seat 2 seems to be a solid player and one that is capable of making plays at a pot. I've been at the table with seat 2 and a few others for a while and pushed with AA twice, gettng called both times, once by a short stack and once by a big stack, I had pushed a few other times periodically to pick up the blinds + antes and not been called. At the time I figured he was trying to look like he had a big hand, by not pushing. I gave him credit for a decent hand but not AA since I had an A. That coupled with my showing down AA twice, wanting to make the final table with a good stack, and my desperation to make a move made me decide to push. Do you ever push with an M around 5 after an early position raise from another stack with low M?
Thanks for any input. -
Depends entirely on the FP player -- the size of his stack, the way I've seen him play, the hands he's shown down, etc.
To me it doesn't look like he's in much better shape than you. An EP raise in this case doesn't represent a steal, and he's not trying to see a cheap flop with a marginal hand because his stack is not that healthy in relation to the blinds anyway and he can't stand up to a re-raise unless he wants to gamble his stack.
I would therefore draw the conclusion that he's got a top hand, 99-AA, AK, AQ or a suited AJ. -
I think I got lucky there that he didn't have a pair but unlucky that he still called with AQ. In general I don't think it was a very good move to make against a player with the same size stack as me. We were both in desperation mode. It may have been ok if the guy had a larger stack like say $70K.
Agree? -
Right. If he had, say, twice as many chips then it would be very easy to put him on a wider range of hands, including suited connectors, AJo, ATs/o, which adds to your overall EV in this spot.
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