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Am I getting odds to hit a set?

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  1. gambler2k4 gambler2k4 is offline

    Columbus, OH
    United States

    Posts: 2,315
    Joined: Feb 06

    Aug 12th, 2007 (8/12/2007 10:31pm)

    This guy bets the piss outta his 3 bets. He seems like a nit. Am I getting correct odds to hit a set if I think I'll take his stack if I hit?

    Table 'Archid' 6-max Seat #5 is the button
    Seat 1: Skjoldburger ($521.80 in chips)
    Seat 2: FrankyFix ($584.15 in chips)
    Seat 3: gambler2k4 ($404.20 in chips)
    Seat 4: Helman Limon ($244.50 in chips)
    Seat 5: HHHthegame88 ($577.80 in chips)
    Seat 6: villian ($396 in chips)
    Bouge_Todd: posts small blind $2
    Skjoldburger: posts big blind $4
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to gambler2k4 [9s 9c]
    FrankyFix: folds
    gambler2k4: raises $12 to $16
    Helman Limon: folds
    HHHthegame88: folds
    villian: raises $48 to $64
     
  2. shamhawks shamhawks is offline

    United States

    Posts: 629
    Joined: Feb 06

    Aug 12th, 2007 (8/12/2007 10:37pm) in reply to gambler2k4

    Based on current odds, I say no for set mining, but depending on what you think of player and if you think you take his stack, then probably implied odds...What about 99 just being good here anyway without hitting??
  3. gambler2k4 gambler2k4 is offline

    Columbus, OH
    United States

    Posts: 2,315
    Joined: Feb 06

    Aug 12th, 2007 (8/12/2007 10:45pm) in reply to shamhawks

    No I call here for the purpose of set mining. Against 18/15 opponent 99 isn't a hand I want to go very far with in this situation.
     
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  4. shamhawks shamhawks is offline

    United States

    Posts: 629
    Joined: Feb 06

    Aug 12th, 2007 (8/12/2007 10:51pm) in reply to gambler2k4

    yah, then I say absolutely not and muck easy..Only getting abut 2.5/1 currently and don't like that enough to make the play
  5. Sikta Sikta is offline

    Coon Rapids, MN
    United States

    Posts: 178
    Joined: Mar 06

    Aug 12th, 2007 (8/12/2007 11:08pm) in reply to gambler2k4

    You need the size of the pot + what he has left to be laying you 8-1 to make it a profitable call (assuming you know he will pay it off 100% of the time). $84 in the pot and he has $332 left, you have to call $48. 416/48 = 8.6666 to 1 implied odds.
  6. d2themfi d2themfi is offline

    United States

    Posts: 857
    Joined: Jan 07

    Aug 12th, 2007 (8/12/2007 11:10pm) in reply to gambler2k4

    no way
     
  7. chrispy2005 chrispy2005 is offline

    IL
    United States

    Posts: 988
    Joined: Oct 06

    Aug 12th, 2007 (8/12/2007 11:17pm) in reply to gambler2k4

    costs 48 pot 86 + he has 332 behind so 48 for chance a ~420 about 8.5 to 1 which is the same odds as flopping a set.

    however with chance of set over set and you dont know for sure he is stacking if you show strength you probably need better than those odds to call profitably
     
  8. pariah pariah is offline

    United States

    Posts: 1,730
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    Aug 12th, 2007 (8/12/2007 11:27pm) in reply to chrispy2005

    you want at least 10:1, I think some would suggest 15:1

    most people over-estimate their implied odds, assuming a) everyone stacks off with overpairs b) the board will be conducive to stacking off (ie, on super connected boards they won't or say KK on A-high board etc)
  9. Green Plastic Green Plastic is offline

    Chicago, IL
    United States

    Posts: 1,182
    Joined: Feb 05

    Aug 12th, 2007 (8/12/2007 11:41pm) in reply to pariah

    perfect advice above. i'd start thinking about calling here with effective stacks at 150BBish.

    tc
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